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Enron Mail |
absolutely agree. the thought is always, even if cash is piece of shit
today...wait until the future. here's my question: what is the environment whereby f/g is worth $.50. is there a market scenario where this happens? slafontaine@globalp.com on 12/12/2000 03:22:07 PM To: slafontaine@globalp.com cc: jarnold@enron.com Subject: re:f/g if you havent read this yet youl think im brilliant-too bad i didnt short jan/feb or apr/may! Steve LaFontaine 12/12/2000 07:49 AM To: jarnold@enron.com cc: Fax to: Subject: re:f/g other question and reason i dont do anything with jan/feb is whats gona make the mkt bearish the feb? perception is stx get titire so inverses grow.. only thing i can think of is will they get concerned over this industrial slowdown going forward and weather going above-i struggle generally tho is weather was still so warm last year hard to get overly bearish rest of the winter from a y on y standpoint Steve LaFontaine 12/11/2000 09:18 PM To: John.Arnold@enron.com cc: Fax to: Subject: re:summer inverses (Document link not converted) wish i had a stronger view-my view combined with year end give me just strong enuf bias not to do anything. its nuts-but you pted out something a while back is this indistries abilty to keep a contango-we dont have that but they certainly doing their best. for cash to be at huge premiums and cold weather up front like we have nt had in years, 15 dollar ny, 50 socal, 10 buck hub-shit whats it take, not like theres huge spec lenght left. i guess to the extent mkt is sooo concerned about running out in march-they gonna keep a huge premium in whats left of the winter strip vs summer, and they shud. cash loan deals have to keep hedged lenght in mar there fore makes em strong so long as they stay way below ratchets. other thing worries me about jan is cash tite but will steadily get some relief from switching, proocessing margins negtive , dist, resid, nukes coming up, then on day we come in and they say weather going above normal 1 st 10 days of jan... BAM guess they wack it. and yes apr/may i think is nuts, mar/apr i dont in part cuz apr whud be a dog. i cant figure out how and when best way to short it/hedge my bet dont know-im leaving it alone, the cash makes it a jan/feb a compelling but too many ifs, yes and dec/jan expirey, wud have thot cash wud recverse the psychology. but not. im pretty lost john and the risks are bigger than i care to take till january-spending next cuplpa weeks formulating some long term strategies in both natgas and oil. and try not to gain anymore weight before the new year.
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