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Enron Mail |
Agree. Still not at supply/demand equilibrium. Unfortunately, market lack=
s a catalyst for sharp move down from here until bid week. i think continu= e to see slow erosion. think we are slowly running out of places to put ga= s. discretionary storage guys have their belly full. can see cash/futures= just keep widening from here. q/v spread, even though it widens every day= , still has a long way to go. think you get to V and there is nowhere to p= ut the gas. could see v/x going to 30+. i buy every cantango spread i can= . when market moves up the winter goes 1 for 1, when the market goes down = you make money. strongest product in the gas market are nymex futures. ev= erything else is a bloodbath. socal basis has gone from $10 to $4 in the p= ast month. canadian storage balances are ridiculous. imports are going to= blow away last year. new lng coming in late novy. rig count is like ope= n interest, a straight line up. gas is behaving very price inelastic, just= like it did on the move from $3 to $5 last year. see little hope. =20 h/j is the craziest spread on the board. it is not a fundamentally priced = spread though. for several reasons, the industry uses that spread primaril= y to link the front of the board to the back. think the front will keep dr= ifting lower and the back will find some customer buy support as we get cal= 2 down to 3.75 ish. thus, h/j has to come in...i think. plus i have the = fundamentals on my side. -----Original Message----- From: =09"Lafontaine, Steve" <steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com<@ENRON [ma= ilto:IMCEANOTES-+22Lafontaine+2C+20Steve+22+20+3Csteve+2Elafontaine+40banko= famerica+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com]=20 Sent:=09Wednesday, June 06, 2001 5:33 PM To:=09jarnold@enron.com Subject:=09this mkt still sucks not much change for me john-i dont see much hope from the bull side. a hot summer at this pt only delays my bearishness further. its 3.1 tcf most bullish end oct or 3.4 if we're not hot for the rest of summer. either way says its all too high priced. now what the hell is up w/bo buying those H/J?? to me this one is lookin= g a little like the aug/oct(remember how stupid that was at +5 cts. h/j maybe not that redicuous but almost. at what pt will the mkt/world give up on the winter strip and h/j gets back to a more reasonalbe 15 cts like jan/feb and feb/mar? mkt seems to be treating you well. still pluggin along here. so far so good. but im pretty much unwavering in my bearish conviction-think its stil= l down and maybe below 3 bucks and much more-always the problem of how much wip you have to take in the short term. our cust stuff on the buy side has finally cooled off as all those guys hedged over 5.00. industrial sectors still suffering from bad bad margins a= s the chemical biz sucks due to imports,ammonia and metals biz sucks.resid prices will help a little but if we have 2 bcf/day more supply y on y then there is no hope. be cool-regards, number 212-836-5030
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