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Enron Mail |
Sorry,sorry, sorry.
Havent had internet access at home for past 5 weeks. Much easier to write these at home as when I'm done trading I don't want to look at my computer. For november, very neutral. Cash is impressive. Agree shutins, switching, and some weather are making market look more like equilibrium. Think with cash/futures at 20 cents, x/z looks crazy. As soon as z becomes prompt, the fear factor/risk premium of it will decrease and the whole winter will come off. Like your h/j trade. Hard to see it really being worth 9 cents at settlement. Been buying a lot of y/y cantango as I think next summer will be a piece but longer term gas story still very real and customers know it. Wouldnt be surprised to see 2/3 go to 50+. I think x has some room to go up, but not a lot. Dont want to play the market from the long side as been burned before trying to get long a market that is still in a downtrend. Seems like the curve will just keep rolling down with each expiry. All the winter months might settle 2.25. As such, the best thing to be short is jan. -----Original Message----- From: "Lafontaine, Steve" <steve.lafontaine@bankofamerica.com<@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Lafontaine+2C+20Steve+22+20+3Csteve+2Elafontaine+40bankofamerica+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 12:32 PM To: Lafontaine, Steve; jarnold@enron.com Subject: RE: wheres the love? well the mkts changed a bit since this writing. im more neturalish now i guess. suprised about the cash strongth. and i guess it doesnt mattr CUZ YOU DONT ANSWER YOUR EMAILS ANYWAY. regards < -----Original Message----- < From: LaFontaine, Steve < Sent: Friday, September 21, 2001 4:40 PM < To: John Arnold (E-mail) < Subject: whats up young man? < < johnny hope all is well. is ok here. new york a little stranger than < normal for obvious reasons.. wwe're trying to get back to normal. pretty < stressful cupla weeks. business has been pretty good(trading anyway) in < natgas and oil. certainly have been some changes in natgas fundamentals < but too littl too late im afraid to get bullish . market sucks and the < newest shock to macr economics im starting to think are mitigating what < mite have been some postive bullish changes like gas/oil relationship and < gas shut ins. looks shitty i think. im not as short as ive been but < starting to think this witer is waaay too high priced. just funtction < timing i guess. i sold a few march aprils again. just doesnt fit the curve < and i think 80% probabitly we end march with over 1.3 tcf in the ground. < wud keep things ugle for awhile. < anyway curious your thots as always. also wanted to say hi.have a good < weekend
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