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Enron Mail |
fyi - we are finally getting to a point where we can spend some time looking
at the numbers to determine what some of the trends are. We will be sending this to Louise/Dave to highlight some of those that may require commercial intervention. Sheri ---------------------- Forwarded by Sheri Thomas/HOU/ECT on 08/25/2000 01:34 PM --------------------------- Torrey Moorer 08/24/2000 04:47 PM To: Sheri Thomas cc: Subject: Trend Analysis for Select Commodity Groups Attached is a trend analysis on the four primary commodity groups which have either been demonstrating, or have been thought to be demonsrating, a decline in EOL transactions as a percentage of total trading activity. The graphs for each group represent a line plot of EOL's weekly percentage of total trading activity by deal count and volume over the last three months. The attachment also contains source data on the second and third pages, which gives the absolute numbers represented by the percentages shown on the graphs. These sheets contain several additional commodity groups which have demonstrated a decreasing or erratic EOL trend, but were not graphed because they averaged less than 10-15 total transactions (both EOL and non-EOL) per week. A few notes on the four graphed commodity groups: AUSTRIAN POWER - The overall EOL trend as a percentage of transactions in Austrian Power has been upward over the last three months, despite the sharp, temporary decrease which took place at the end of July as a result of the head Austrian Power Trader and Stack Manager going on holiday. Since his return, the percentage has picked back up and as of 8/22 about 30% of Austrian Power trades were once again being done through EOL. There is cause for concern here, however, in the fact that the absence of one trader effectively shut off EOL trading in this commodity group. LPG - The LPG products have followed a somewhat erratic path since inception, with EOL transactions typically accounting for between 20 and 30 percent of total LPG trading activity. This overall trend remains intact and as of 8/22, EOL accounted for 26% of LPG trades. Crude & Products - This commodity group has been demonstrating a steady decline in EOL trading activity over the last three months. While EOL trades accounted for approximately 20% of all crude and products activity in May, this percentage has dropped off to just over 10% as of August 22nd. This trend is particularly disturbing because of its consistancy, as well as the relatively large data pool on which it is based. UK Power - Although the absolute number of trades in UK Power dropped off significantly at the end of July, EOL's percentage of UK Power transactions has remained fairly stable. EOL's percentage of UK Power trades "spiked" briefly during the second week of June, but outside of this the percentage of UK Power trading represented by EOL transactions has fluctuated between 20 and 40 percent. On trade date 8-22, EOL transactions accounted for just over 50% of all transactions done in UK Power.
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