DWR Stranded Cost Update

----- Forwarded by Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron on 07/11/2001 07:14 PM -----

Alan Comnes/ENRON@enronXgate
07/11/2001 05:03 PM

To: Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron@Enron, Jennifer Thome/ENRON@enronXgate, Richard
Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron, James D Steffes/NA/Enron@Enron, Susan J
Mara/NA/Enron@ENRON, Dave Perrino/SF/ECT@ECT, Ban
Sharma/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Tim Belden/ENRON@enronXgate, Ray
Alvarez/NA/Enron@ENRON
cc:
Subject: DWR Stranded Cost Update

Using information pulled together by Jennifer and BAN, I requested West
Tradings Risk/Structuring Group do a more careful analysis of the
above-market costs associated with the DWR contracts. Attached is their
analysis.

In this analysis we examined only the executed contracts and NOT the
agreements-in principle. (Only executed contracts were released by the state
in the last few weeks.) Also, gas-indexed contracts were examined on their
nongas costs only. Since gas costs are a pass through on some contracts, we
excluded them as a conservatism; i.e., we did not ascribe costs to the gas
portion of the contracts since they will float with market costs over time.
These contracts were marked to market using current, applicable curves.
Finally we discounted at the LIBOR rate, which is around 4%/year.

The stranded cost under these assumptions is approximately $10 billion. The
spreadsheet shows the overmarket costs by contract. Note: a negative
"mark-to-market" equals a positive stranded cost.

As before, this analysis is based upon Enron's confidential forward curves.
Approval from Tim Belden is needed before this analysis can be released.

Alan Comnes