Enron Mail

From:jeff.dasovich@enron.com
To:pbukowski@acex.com
Subject:Team Project #2---Problem #2
Cc:cvavrek@dttus.com, dennis.sidbury@prudential.com, shawne@harmony.com
Bcc:cvavrek@dttus.com, dennis.sidbury@prudential.com, shawne@harmony.com
Date:Sat, 6 May 2000 05:51:00 -0700 (PDT)

I think Dennis, Shawne and I were supposed to work more on #2, but since I
can't recall, I'm sending to all.

First, I apologize. I tried to work directly with the excellent spreadsheet
Carolyn put together, but I kept fumbling, butchering, etc. So I canibalized
her great stuff and created a new spreadsheet, attempting to incorporate the
"clarifications" (yeah, right) that Prof McCullough distributed via email,
and the stuff we talked about during break (i.e., timing of cash flows). The
answers are at the bottom of the work sheet. And I've also included the
report (though I did not peruse it for errors, relevancy, etc.).

My biggest concern is question 6. My answer (despite some outliers) sez
that there ain't no loan in June. (This may mean my spreadsheet's got a
fatal flaw--significant probability.)

Finally, doing a series of 1,000 trials resulted in some considerable
variability across runs--again, could be due to screw up on my part--so the
answers I generatd comes from a run of 5,000 trials. (If you run the sheet,
beware, 5,000 takes some time, unless you've got DSL or something.)

Let me know if this is completely out to lunch, or if you're coming up with
something remotely similar.

Best,
Jeff