|
|
Enron Mail |
DJ REPEAT:Ercot Sees 56,373 MW Summer Peak,2% Below '00 Peak
DJ Ercot: New Units Will Boost Supply to 65,064 MW DJ Ercot: 21% Summer Reserve If Normal Weather DJ Ercot Summer -2: New 345-Kv Line To Relieve Congestion By Eileen O'Grady Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--After several tight summers, new generation and a new transmission line in Texas should push the power region's summer reserve above 20%, according to a projections from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. According to a summer assessment study compiled by Ercot, utilities and power suppliers forecast a peak load demand of 56,373 megawatts this summer, 2% MW under the record-shattering 2000 peak of 57,606 MW. The lower peak forecast assumes a return to normal summer temperatures. Last summer, Texas saw record heat amid a drought that lasted 84 days in parts of the state. That increased power demand to record levels. Ercot's projected peak of 54,817 MW for summer 2000 wound up being 5% under the actual peak seen Aug. 31. Spot power prices jumped above $100 per megawatt-hour in four brief spikes last summer, twice in May and again in July and August. While drought conditions have eased since last summer, the report warns that Ercot's peak could jump to 58,550 MW if forecasts provided by investor-owned utilities haven't included a possible shift in demand from customers participating in a retail pilot project that begins June 1. Even so, more than 3,350 MW of new generation is expected to be online compared with last summer, pushing Ercot's net capacity resources to 65,064 MW, according to the report. The Ercot assessment says the new generation should keep the region's reserve margin above 20% in August when demand is expected to peak. The Ercot report, however, includes 1,730 MW of "border" generation that can be sold into Ercot or into the Southwest Power Pool. A separate report from the Texas Public Utility Commission staff pointed out several additional merchant generating plants slated to come online this summer in Ercot. The PUC staff report paints a more bullish forecast for demand. The PUC said coincident peak demand for power in Ercot grew at a compound rate of 4.3% from 1995 to 2000. Total annual energy consumption in Ercot grew by nearly 7.5% from 1999 to 2000, according to the PUC. The 21% reserve margin in August is twice the amount seen last summer. It includes 2,870 MW of interruptible demand, slightly below last summer's 3,000 MW of available load that could be curtailed. Ercot transmission constraints are expected to be reduced dramatically this summer as an additional 345-kilovolt line running from Limestone power station to the Watermill switchyard is expected to be in service this month, alleviating the south-to-north congestion seen in the last two summers. Additional lines are in the planning stages to relieve the west-to-east flow from Morgan Creek. On June 1, Ercot will become a single control area as the region moves toward full retail competition beginning Jan. 1. The current interregional transfer limit is 785 MW across the state's two direct-current ties with SPP although there is expected to be some limitation this summer due to a breaker problem near the east DC tie. Because Ercot lacks synchronous interconnection with the rest of the U.S. power grid, the region has limited ability to import electricity in times of high demand. Ercot is a group of interconnected utilities that serves about 85% of the power load in the state. -By Eileen O'Grady; Dow Jones Newswires, 713-547-9213; eileen.ogrady@dowjones.com <mailto:eileen.ogrady@dowjones.com< (END) Dow Jones Newswires 01-05-01 1546GMT (AP-DJ-05-01-01 1546GMT) :SUBJECT: EUTL DI4 TX Copyright © 2001 Dow Jones and Company, Inc. Received by NewsEDGE/LAN: 5/1/01 11:40 AM
|