Weather Headlines
Friday October 26, 2001

***Cold air in the East will linger through the weekend but will get
rapidly scoured out next week. Next trough set to enter the Western U.S.***

There is currently a long and strong fetch of NW winds driving cold
air through the Plains and then South and East. Some Lake effect snows are
occurring with this as well though much of the Great Lakes moisture is a
cold rain. Sprawling high pressure covers almost the rest of the country
and the trend in temperature is about to become one of moderation. The
surface high in the Plains will shift to the East coast by early next week
and the NW winds now will shift to the SW allowing the warm up to commence.
It will start in the Plains this weekend and go East of the Mississippi by
Monday. My five day temperature departures are still largely below normal,
but they should be used with caution in a see-saw pattern such as this.
After all some areas(especially in the Plains) may start out 15-20 below
normal today and go 10-15 above normal by Day 5 (Tuesday). By the end of
the period, the Eastern trough will be out to sea, a new trough will invade
the West and Pacific style air will rule coast to coast. That air can be
damp along the West coast, but as it sinks over the mountains it quickly
warms up and dries out. This pattern is allowing the wet season to get
started in the PNW. It appears each successive Pacific storm is getting a
little stronger and forming further South. If the trend continues, we could
start seeing moisture getting into Northern California next week.

I continue to see good agreement with the models in the 6-10 day
period. The country should remain bathed in Pacific air well into the first
week of November and I believe even beyond. Troughs continue to move into
the West and then in a progressive pattern stay fairly weak in their move
East. Without any blocking in Canada, it is hard for me to see much
likelihood for any arctic air to get entrained. My confidence remains high
in a largely above normal temperature forecast. It is a little less
optimistic in terms of precipitation. I question how much Gulf of Mexico
moisture can be worked back to the North, but some models suggest the
Plains could get wet next week. I have not discussed the tropics much this
week because there has not been a storm to mention. There still isn't, but
the overall pattern we are going into next week can in a climatological
sense sometimes crank something up in the Caribbean and push it North
towards Florida. My guess is there will not be a named storm as such, but
some potential for heavy rain.

For the period Friday October 26 through Tuesday October 30, expect the
following temperature trends:

Average 7 to 9-degrees below normal: Great Lakes, Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, Southeast...

Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Gulf Coast, Northeast, Mississippi
Valley

Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Plains, Pacific NW...

Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: California, Rockies...

Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Desert SW, Intermountain West...

Andy Weingarten... Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote Weather Desk