Enron Mail

From:zimin.lu@enron.com
To:mike.roberts@enron.com
Subject:6/30 aga forecast at 66
Cc:vince.kaminski@enron.com, stinson.gibner@enron.com
Bcc:vince.kaminski@enron.com, stinson.gibner@enron.com
Date:Wed, 28 Jun 2000 09:03:00 -0700 (PDT)

Mike,

My number for next week is 66 (from Seasonal Holt-Winter model, SHW).

I am also fitting AGA to an ARIMAX model. As discussed, I need weighted
temperature
data for east, west and production areas. I would appreciate if you could
provide that data.
After that, I could add forward price curve as explainatory variables.

Since AGA is a market mover, it is important to have an accurate model.

Zimin





To: Zimin Lu/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re: revised aga forecast for 6/23 is 65

came in at 73

what do have for next week?