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Enron Mail |
Brad,
As we discussed, it's very difficult to find drivers of the ENE stock's behaviours. We investigated about 30 comparable stocks, 10 capital market indices, and three energy commodity indices. Regular regressions as well as regressions with different legs and leads were performed. Some variables show significant correlated with ENE stock during particular time periods, but most of those correlation disappears when we tested them over different or longer time periods. Only two variables, S&P Utility Index(SPXU) and DOW Jones Utility Index(UTIL), show stable and significant relationship with ENE stock (a summary of these relationship can be found in the attached file "outputSummary"). But as you can see, the R2 are below 30%. Also, the ?Durbin-Watson statistics tell us to be careful about autocorrelation.?Basically, the regression analysis so far confirms our original opinion -- ?it's hard, if not impossible, to find out any real driver of the ENE stock. ?After Enron added new core business several month ago, the stock behaved more ?or less like a tele_comm stock, which suggests that ENRON stock has entered ?into a new phase. To capture, at least trying to capture, its ?characteristics in the new phase, we need a lit bit more time to cumulate the ?market date.??Let me know if you need me investigate more variables or you come up with ?some new thoughts.????Vincent??
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