Re: Joint Probabilities

Bob -

Thanks for your help on this - it is exactly what we were looking for. I
also wanted to let you know that I will be revising some of these numbers and
asking you to rerun the probability table. I hope that this is not a problem.

thanks again

Bob Lee@ENRON
08/31/00 11:00 AM

To: Michael Anderson/HOU/AZURIX@AZURIX
cc: Zimin Lu/HOU/ECT@ECT, Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, Stinson
Gibner/HOU/ECT@ECT
Subject: Re: Joint Probabilities

The attached spreadsheet has been updated to include probabilities for
exceeding stated stock prices in each year.

These numbers represent the probability for all combinations of RAB ratio and
exchange rate. For example, 2003 shows a stock value of 7.38 for a RAB=1.1
and Fx=1.5. We previously showed the prob of exceeding a stock price of
7.38, AND RAB < 1.1, Fx < 1.5 as 14%. The probability of exceeding 7.38 for
all possible values of RAB and Fx is 35% (interpolating between 40% and 27%
in the price table).

Bob