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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Monday, Oct 29, 2001 at 11:= 47AM EST Commentary last updated: Monday, Oct 29, 2001 at 09:58AM EST M= eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulatio= ns Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUIL= A/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: = AMS or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Tem= perature' Today: Monday, October 29, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta T= emp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 56 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 -1 FR= CC(SE) 74 -1 MAAC(NE) 56 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 +1 MAPP(HP) 50 NC NPCC(NE) 51 -1 S= ERC(SE) 65 -1 SPP(SP) 71 NC WSCC(NW) 56 +1 WSCC(RK) 63 NC WSCC(SW) 71 +3 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me= an 51 52 50 52 60 62 70 67 Max 59 58 55 56 67 67 76 72 Min 44 47 45 48 52 5= 4 62 63 Range 15 11 10 8 15 13 14 9 StD-P 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.1 4.0 4.4 3.0 C= ount 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Day 1-5 Discussion: Pacific air to overwh= elm most of the country this week with a lack of significant storminess. Th= ere may however be some late season percolation in the tropics. For the th= ird time this month, we set a handful of record lows in the SE U.S. this we= ekend. The Canadian high is moving toward the coast though and we should so= on initiate a broad (though light) SW flow of air that will warm the East b= ack to above normal levels. This is already well under way in the Plains wh= ere 70's were common this weekend. This pattern shuts off the Gulf of Mexic= o and allows for mainly dry frontal passages. One such front in the Plains = will shift to the NE through Wednesday. Since we have a zonal flow developi= ng in the upper levels, this front does little more than slow down the warm= up as opposed to stopping it all together. ! Storms are a little more robu= st in the Pacific NW as a deep trough in the Gulf of Alaska continues to se= nd impulses of energy your way. Some precip should get as far South as Nort= hern California. With no additional arctic air in sight this week, most fiv= e day averages return to above seasonal norms. The most excitement for wea= ther fanatics this week may be late season development in the tropics. We h= ave a tropical depression in the Central Atlantic now and satellite picture= s suggest another one may be developing over the next 24 hours in the Carib= bean off the coast of Nicaragua. My initial thought was its a little too fa= r South and too close to land to really have an impact in the Gulf and SE. = However, there is considerable forecast scatter among the models. It runs a= nywhere from nothing at all to development in the Gulf of Mexico. So, I won= t rule it out yet, but since it would be days away and not even developed y= et, I'll wait a couple of days before issuing a p! rediction. Tomorrow: Tue= sday, October 30, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matri= x [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enl= arge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 -3 ERCOT(SP) 76 -1 FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 5= 7 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 -3 MAPP(HP) 52 -3 NPCC(NE) 50 NC SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 7= 2 -1 WSCC(NW) 56 +1 WSCC(RK) 64 +6 WSCC(SW) 67 +2 Range Standard Deviat= ion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 59 48 51 59 65 70= 63 Max 57 63 52 56 66 72 77 70 Min 46 54 43 48 53 58 60 59 Range 11 9 9 8 = 13 14 17 11 StD-P 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.6 3.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 1= 0 10 Day 3: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp.= Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cl= ick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 62 -1 ERCOT(SP) 79 NC FRCC(S= E) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 54 -5 MAIN(CTR) 64 +2 MAPP(HP) 62 +2 NPCC(NE) 47 -2 SERC(= SE) 70 -1 SPP(SP) 73 +2 WSCC(NW) 53 NC WSCC(RK) 58 +2 WSCC(SW) 67 +1 Ra= nge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 5= 7 61 46 47 50 67 73 62 Max 63 67 50 54 59 73 78 67 Min 53 56 42 43 45 63 66= 59 Range 10 11 8 11 14 10 12 8 StD-P 2.9 3.1 2.2 3.1 4.3 3.6 3.5 2.5 Count= 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Day 4: Thursday, November 1, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 67 +3 ERCOT(SP) = 81 NC FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 66 NC MAIN(CTR) 64 +1 MAPP(HP) 61 +4 NPCC(NE)= 56 -4 SERC(SE) 75 -1 SPP(SP) 73 +1 WSCC(NW) 52 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WSCC(SW) = 67 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 59 53 57 47 44 71 74 63 Max 64 61 60 52 55 76 79 68 Min 55 48 54= 43 37 68 68 59 Range 9 13 6 9 18 8 11 9 StD-P 2.6 3.6 1.8 2.8 5.0 2.6 4.0 = 2.8 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Friday, November 2, 2001 Syncrasy's C= hoice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 64 +2 ERC= OT(SP) 81 +1 FRCC(SE) 82 NC MAAC(NE) 67 NC MAIN(CTR) 61 +4 MAPP(HP) 56 +4 N= PCC(NE) 62 +2 SERC(SE) 75 NC SPP(SP) 71 NC WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WS= CC(SW) 68 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW= RK SE SP SW Mean 56 50 62 48 45 72 73 65 Max 60 58 64 54 54 76 79 69 Min 5= 1 41 59 45 37 69 67 61 Range 9 17 5 9 17 7 12 8 StD-P 3.1 5.4 1.6 2.5 6.2 2= .2 4.2 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 Discussion: Last week 6-10 da= y forecasts from the models were largely in agreement and so far have been = mostly on the money. Given the pattern though, I would have expected this t= o be the case. The next change in weather will likely not be so agreed upon= and there is already some scatter in the models. My early expectations are= for another buckle to take place in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. e= arly in this period. Some keep things zonal, but you certainly can't argue = the trend so far this fall is for this to occur about every seven days. But= , there is reason to think the Eastern trough will not be as robust as the = last several. In other words, it won't be as cold or spread as far South or= West. If it goes this way, we would turn slightly below normal East, a lit= tle above in the West and a little of both(or normal) in the P! lains. Day = 6: Saturday, November 3, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on imag= e to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 60 +4 ERCOT(SP) 79 +2 FRCC(SE) 83 +1 MA= AC(NE) 64 +3 MAIN(CTR) 59 +5 MAPP(HP) 53 +2 NPCC(NE) 56 +1 SERC(SE) 74 +2 S= PP(SP) 69 +3 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 70 NC Range Standar= d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 51 58 52 = 47 71 70 67 Max 57 57 61 56 55 76 76 72 Min 45 45 56 48 40 69 67 63 Range 1= 2 12 5 8 15 7 9 9 StD-P 3.9 4.7 1.5 3.3 5.6 2.2 2.9 3.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5= 5 Day 7: Sunday, November 4, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V= olatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click = on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 52 -2 ERCOT(SP) 74 -2 FRCC(SE) 8= 1 -1 MAAC(NE) 56 -3 MAIN(CTR) 51 -3 MAPP(HP) 50 -2 NPCC(NE) 52 NC SERC(SE) = 70 -1 SPP(SP) 64 -2 WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 54 -1 WSCC(SW) 70 -1 Range = Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 52= 48 51 47 67 66 67 Max 54 60 53 54 56 71 71 71 Min 41 44 43 49 38 64 63 63 = Range 13 16 10 5 18 7 8 8 StD-P 5.6 6.2 4.0 1.7 7.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 Count 5 5 5= 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Monday, November 5, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta T= emp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 -7 ERCOT(SP) 62 -1 FR= CC(SE) 67 -3 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 -5 MAPP(HP) 45 -7 NPCC(NE) 42 +3 S= ERC(SE) 53 -5 SPP(SP) 56 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -4 WSCC(RK) 47 -5 WSCC(SW) 63 -3 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me= an 48 52 48 47 51 63 66 67 Max 57 57 53 53 56 69 72 71 Min 40 48 43 44 49 5= 6 61 63 Range 17 9 10 9 7 13 11 8 StD-P 6.8 3.1 4.5 2.4 2.5 6.1 4.4 2.7 Cou= nt 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 9: Tuesday, November 6, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice:= Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 -2 ERCOT(SP)= 68 +2 FRCC(SE) 63 -3 MAAC(NE) 44 -1 MAIN(CTR) 50 -4 MAPP(HP) 45 -7 NPCC(NE= ) 40 NC SERC(SE) 54 +1 SPP(SP) 60 -3 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 40 -6 WSCC(SW)= 63 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE= SP SW Mean 49 47 46 45 47 62 66 65 Max 52 50 55 50 52 69 67 68 Min 47 45 4= 1 42 44 56 66 63 Range 5 5 14 8 8 13 1 5 StD-P 1.5 1.9 5.9 3.3 3.0 6.0 0.3 = 1.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Wednesday, November 7, 2001 Syncrasy= 's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 -7= ERCOT(SP) 61 -7 FRCC(SE) 66 -3 MAAC(NE) 50 -3 MAIN(CTR) 41 -14 MAPP(HP) 36= -11 NPCC(NE) 45 -3 SERC(SE) 60 +1 SPP(SP) 47 -19 WSCC(NW) 42 +3 WSCC(RK) 4= 1 +3 WSCC(SW) 61 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT H= P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 41 43 43 42 60 58 56 Max 40 44 46 45 43 61 58 6= 1 Min 40 39 38 42 40 57 56 47 Range 0 5 8 3 3 4 2 14 StD-P 0.0 1.9 3.6 1.2 = 1.4 1.9 0.9 6.0 Count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trader Summary is designed around = and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? = Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbene= rgy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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