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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2001 at 10= :35AM EST Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2001 at 09:42AM EST = Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulat= ions Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQU= ILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit= : AMS or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum T= emperature' Today: Tuesday, November 20, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 42 +3 ERCOT(SP) 58 -= 1 FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 47 +1 MAIN(CTR) 45 +3 MAPP(HP) 50 +2 NPCC(NE) 45 = NC SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP(SP) 57 NC WSCC(NW) 52 +2 WSCC(RK) 56 -1 WSCC(SW) 66 += 1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 40 48 46 47 44 60 52 62 Max 45 57 49 52 56 64 62 68 Min 35 42 42 44 = 33 57 44 57 Range 10 15 7 8 23 7 18 11 StD-P 3.1 5.2 1.2 2.1 7.0 2.2 3.9 2.= 9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Us= ed Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: Models converging o= n an increasingly stormy pattern. The question still to be answered is when= the arctic air arrives. The current cool down in the East is very transit= ional with warmer air to return by the end of the week. The pattern has cle= arly changed as the jet stream has been suppressed Southward. In the short = (and medium) terms, things should turn stormier, but not neccessarily colde= r. In fact, latest charts indicate a healthy ridge to build late this perio= d over the SE U.S. in response to a trough developing over the Rockies. Thi= s opens the Gulf of Mexico up in a moisture sense, but any winter snows loo= k to be confined to the extreme Northern tier of states. Much needed rains = may fall from the Plains to the East Coast by the weekend in areas that hav= e been parched this Fall. In terms of temperatu! res, 5 day averages will n= ot depart significantly from normal the rest of the week though the trend l= ate in the period will be for a warmer East and a cooler West. Tomorrow: W= ednesday, November 21, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility = Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image t= o enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 47 +1 ERCOT(SP) 63 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 +3 MAAC(= NE) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 51 -1 MAPP(HP) 52 -1 NPCC(NE) 40 NC SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(= SP) 59 -3 WSCC(NW) 49 -1 WSCC(RK) 49 -2 WSCC(SW) 64 -1 Range Standard D= eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 47 38 45 43 = 55 57 60 Max 53 57 43 51 52 62 67 67 Min 37 39 32 41 35 47 49 55 Range 16 1= 8 11 10 17 15 18 12 StD-P 4.7 4.5 2.8 2.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12= 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat= ility Matrix Day 3: Thursday, November 22, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 51 +2 ERCOT(SP) 69 += 1 FRCC(SE) 77 +4 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 49 NC MAPP(HP) 46 NC NPCC(NE) 44 = +2 SERC(SE) 62 NC SPP(SP) 53 -6 WSCC(NW) 47 -2 WSCC(RK) 43 -5 WSCC(SW) 62 -= 3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 44 44 41 44 38 59 61 58 Max 49 47 47 48 45 66 65 61 Min 40 38 34 41 = 30 56 56 54 Range 9 9 13 7 15 10 9 7 StD-P 2.9 3.0 3.3 1.8 4.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 = Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used= Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Friday, November 23, 2001 Syncrasy= 's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 51 NC= ERCOT(SP) 70 -3 FRCC(SE) 79 +3 MAAC(NE) 52 -1 MAIN(CTR) 48 -1 MAPP(HP) 45 = NC NPCC(NE) 45 -2 SERC(SE) 63 -1 SPP(SP) 57 -2 WSCC(NW) 45 -1 WSCC(RK) 42 -= 1 WSCC(SW) 60 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP N= E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 42 44 40 34 64 62 55 Max 51 47 47 45 43 66 67 60 M= in 43 38 40 38 29 61 54 52 Range 8 9 7 7 14 5 13 8 StD-P 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.3 2.= 8 1.4 4.8 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas= t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Saturday, November 24, 2001 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 51 -1 ERCOT(SP) 72 NC FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 56 +3 MAIN(CTR) 50 -2 MAPP= (HP) 43 NC NPCC(NE) 45 -2 SERC(SE) 67 NC SPP(SP) 56 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(= RK) 39 NC WSCC(SW) 56 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 38 50 37 31 66 63 51 Max 48 43 54 43 40 69= 68 56 Min 43 34 47 35 25 63 57 47 Range 5 9 7 8 15 6 11 9 StD-P 1.8 2.6 1.= 9 1.4 3.5 2.1 4.2 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather= Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: I hav= e been consistently forecasting colder air (along with most others) in the = 6-10 day period for a couple of weeks now. It has been slow in developing a= nd the cool down now in the East would hardly be considered significant unl= ess it is compared to the record warmth of the last couple of weeks. The pa= ttern I foresee going into early December is colder relative to normal in t= he West and warmer in the East. Specifically a storm track from the SW into= the Plains and NE will set up allowing for generous rain (with snow North)= to develop. Arctic air is moving to this side of the pole and pooling in N= W Canada. Now, a mechanism to drive it SE is needed. One of the tools used = that I occasionally refer to is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Most= winter forecasts have predicted this as largely negative this se! ason whi= ch is a robust signal for cold air in the East. It has been negative the la= st two weeks though in fairness its reliability as a signal gets much highe= r in December for cold. I find it interesting to note the signal is expecte= d to go weakly positive next week. Bottom line for the period is I see a co= ntinuation of a cold bias with the Western trough and a warm bias in the vi= cinity of the Eastern ridge. We may also see a significant storm move throu= gh the country during the period, but again I look for snow to be confined = to the North. Day 6: Sunday, November 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 52 +1 ERCOT(SP) 73 += 2 FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 56 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +3 MAPP(HP) 40 +2 NPCC(NE) 48 = +1 SERC(SE) 67 NC SPP(SP) 56 NC WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 56 -= 1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 44 35 51 36 29 66 66 48 Max 47 40 55 42 37 69 71 56 Min 42 30 48 34 = 21 63 64 45 Range 5 10 7 8 16 6 7 11 StD-P 1.0 3.1 2.3 2.0 5.2 2.1 2.6 2.8 = Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Monday, November 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choic= e: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 52 +4 ERCOT(S= P) 71 +6 FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 54 +2 MAIN(CTR) 48 +3 MAPP(HP) 36 NC NPCC(= NE) 49 +3 SERC(SE) 68 +4 SPP(SP) 55 +1 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 32 -3 WSCC(S= W) 55 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK = SE SP SW Mean 46 35 47 35 24 67 65 46 Max 50 42 52 43 34 70 71 55 Min 44 30= 45 31 16 64 61 42 Range 6 12 7 12 18 6 10 13 StD-P 1.6 4.0 2.1 2.5 5.3 1.6= 3.2 3.9 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Use= d Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Tuesday, November 27, 2001 Syncra= sy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 50 = -5 ERCOT(SP) 52 -4 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +9 MAIN(CTR) 36 -14 MAPP(HP) = 27 -4 NPCC(NE) 53 +13 SERC(SE) 63 -2 SPP(SP) 36 -6 WSCC(NW) 30 -1 WSCC(RK) = 16 +5 WSCC(SW) 45 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT = HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 28 48 34 21 65 56 47 Max 57 39 55 42 33 68 70 = 56 Min 39 22 42 30 17 63 48 44 Range 18 17 13 12 16 5 22 12 StD-P 5.9 4.8 3= .9 2.8 4.9 1.4 6.8 3.4 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weathe= r Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Wednesday, November 2= 8, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE]= ECAR(CTR) 33 -12 ERCOT(SP) 52 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 40 -19 MAIN(CTR= ) 29 -3 MAPP(HP) 19 +2 NPCC(NE) 41 -10 SERC(SE) 51 -14 SPP(SP) 37 +5 WSCC(N= W) 27 -5 WSCC(RK) 19 +9 WSCC(SW) 43 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 21 45 31 21 61 51 45 Max 52 = 25 51 35 24 68 62 49 Min 28 16 40 27 18 55 46 43 Range 24 9 11 8 6 13 16 6 = StD-P 6.5 2.7 3.5 2.8 1.7 4.8 5.1 2.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to = See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Thurs= day, November 29, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matri= x [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enl= arge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 -8 ERCOT(SP) 61 +9 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 3= 4 -22 MAIN(CTR) 27 +2 MAPP(HP) 20 +5 NPCC(NE) 34 -13 SERC(SE) 55 -6 SPP(SP)= 41 +4 WSCC(NW) 27 -6 WSCC(RK) 16 -7 WSCC(SW) 39 -9 Range Standard Devi= ation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 18 41 29 17 58 = 48 40 Max 33 20 53 31 26 61 56 44 Min 26 12 34 27 8 56 34 34 Range 7 8 19 4= 18 5 22 10 StD-P 2.6 3.5 5.5 1.7 4.1 1.0 6.9 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Cli= ck Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma disp= lays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from w= ww.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE= ] =09 =09=09=09
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