Election Update 11/17

---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 11/17/2000
04:35 PM ---------------------------

Robert Johnston
11/17/2000 10:22 AM
To: Mike McConnell/HOU/ECT@ECT, Gary Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A
Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Joe Gold/LON/ECT@ECT, Mark Schroeder/LON/ECT@ECT, Vince
J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: William Stuart/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeff Kinneman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Michelle D
Cisneros/HOU/ECT@ECT, Pushkar Shahi/HOU/ECT@ECT, Paul Pizzolato/HOU/ECT@ECT,
John Greene/LON/ECT@ECT, Ellen Su/Corp/Enron@Enron, Steve
Jacobellis/NA/Enron@Enron, Eric Scott/HOU/ECT@ECT, Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT,
Trena McFarland/NA/Enron@Enron, Scott Tholan/Corp/Enron@Enron, Kristin
Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT, John A Cote/HOU/ECT@ECT, Cynthia
Sandherr/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Chris Long/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Jeffrey
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Martina Angelova/LON/ECT@ECT, J Christopher Champion/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jim
Roth/EU/Enron@Enron, Richard Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron
Subject: Election Update 11/17

We have said the election is in the hands of the courts; the courts and
momentum are now swinging toward the Bush camp.

The unequivocal ruling by Leon County circuit Judge Terry Lewis rejecting the
plea by
Democrats and affirming that Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris did
indeed
exercise her discretion in rejecting the hand recounts totals represents a
stunning
setback for Vice President Al Gore. "It appears that the secretary has
exercised her reasoned
judgment to determine what relevant factors and criteria should be considered
... my order requires nothing
more," the terse Lewis verdict read. It means the certification of the
Florida vote is likely to
proceed on Saturday, with Secretary of State Harris certain to declare Bush
the
winner and give Florida's 25 electoral votes to Bush and thus put him over
the top
with 271 electoral votes.

This is not formally over as the Democrats are likely to immediately appeal
the Lewis decision to the Florida
State Supreme Court and other legal challenges are still pending (e.g. the
Palm Beach butterfly ballot
challenge). But it will be an extremely difficult path from here.

For now Palm Beach and Broward are still recounting, waiting for the Supreme
Court to tell them to stop
much like they waited to be told to start. If they are told to stop, then it
is obviously over. The Gore
campaign staff will also have to move quickly to send their appeal to the
State
Supreme Court. But the Court may not even hear the appeal, for proving Harris
did not act with
discretion -- already difficult as the Lewis ruling showed -- will become
even more difficult on appeal.

The Democrats now have to race against time as their last remaining asset is
to "leak" a hand recount total that
would have put Gore ahead -- if Harris had accepted them. But as the legal
options dwindle, and the court of
public opinion becomes even more important, the Lewis ruling and the
inevitable Harris
certification (barring intercession by Florida's Supreme Court) tomorrow
provides the
Republicans with a powerful public relations weapon to turn public opinion
sharply in
favor of calling the race over.

Of course we are still waiting for the approximately 2300 overseas absentee
ballots to be counted and there
is a small possibility that these may help Gore. However, Bush has won over
60% of the overseas absentee
ballots received to date.