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Enron Mail |
Bryan,
FYI Vince ---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 03/21/2001 01:28 PM --------------------------- From: Mark Wilson/ENRON@enronXgate on 03/16/2001 10:08 AM To: Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, Vasant Shanbhogue/HOU/ECT@ECT, Rabi De/NA/Enron@ENRON, Amitava Dhar/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Teresa Seibel/ENRON@enronXgate cc: William S Bradford/ENRON@enronXgate Subject: FW: meeting follow-up Dan sent this information as a follow up to our meeting this week. If there is any additional information you would like to see, please let me know. In the absense of any objections, I would like to begin having our analysts use the Financial Stress score to underwrite small exposures where financial statements are not received. In addtion to saving some expense, this will allow greater consistentency. And moving forward, I believe we can map expected defaults from FStress score ranges to those implied in credit spreads, and in doing so map to E-ratings for use in credit reserve analytics. I've had prelimiary discussions with Rabi and Amititava regarding this. Any additional insights would be helpful, and thanks for your help. -----Original Message----- From: "Barry, Dan" <BarryD@dnb.com<@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Barry+2C+20Dan+22+20+3CBarryD+40dnb+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENR ON.com] Sent: Thursday, March 15, 2001 10:26 AM To: mark_wilson@enron.com Cc: Marcom, Karen; Johnson, Judy Subject: meeting follow-up Mark, Attached are a presentation on the Financial Stress Score and the countries that have risk scores available today. Please let me know if you have any questions. In response Vince's question regarding false positives from the model, that is a little difficult to answer. The model is predicting the likelihood of a company experiencing financial distress. We are not saying that all companies with a high risk score will experience financial distress. In other words, it is not really a yes or no proposition. It' not like a drug test where the test either comes back positive or negative and ocassionally, you get a false positive test result. We are identifying companies that are at high risk for failure. Some of those high risk companies will fail and some will not fail. How many in each classification that will ultimately fail is addressed in the performance charts attached below. Please let me know if you have any other questions or need any additional information. Dan Barry Dun & Bradstreet Analytical Services barryd@dnb.com Phone (713) 953-5458 Fax (713) 953-5454 <<enron fss.ppt<< <<Globalfailure.ppt<< <<Fin Stress Understanding.doc<< <<FSS performance.doc<< - enron fss.ppt - Globalfailure.ppt - Fin Stress Understanding.doc - FSS performance.doc
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