|
|
Enron Mail |
George,
This is the first cut at the problem you gave us, done by my associate Clayton Vernon. Please, feel free to call him with any question. Your friend should check what were the sermons he gave on April 19 and April 25, in 1998 and 1999, respectively. Vince ---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 01/20/2000 02:49 PM --------------------------- Clayton Vernon@ENRON 01/20/2000 10:56 AM To: Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: Subject: Re: Spreadsheet for George Posey Vince- Here is an analysis of the fund giving at the church. First off, it appears from the data that a special "appeal" for fund giving was made (from the pulpit?) on April 19, 1998 and April 25, 1999, (perhaps tied rhetorically into Income Taxes?). Then, by going back and incorporating obvious dates from the calendars for 1997-1999, the following regression analysis is made, where each effect is added independently: giving this Sunday = $4403 + a minor $3 weekly time trend (i.e., multiply by the number of weeks since Jan. 5, 1997) + no pure effect from last week's contributions (i.e., denies first-order autoregressive effects) + $2426 if Easter Sunday or the Sunday nearest Christmas + $9695 if (pastoral appeal) April 19,1998 or April 25,1999 - $340 if the Sunday falls on the weekend of a Monday Federal holiday - $50 if the Sunday following Thanksgiving - $73 if a Summer weekend (June 1 thru August 31) The pure time trend is very small, so an annual projection based on all 3 years data would be for giving to increase only a minor amount ($150) for 2000 assuming a similar appeal for giving is made this April. Clayton
|