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Enron Mail |
Atlantic Tropical Development Outlook Issued: 08:45 AM Monday Octob= er 29, 2001 [IMAGE] Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: Morning satellite a= nd surface observations suggest that a low-level circulation is developing = near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. Conditions aloft in the northwes= t Caribbean are becoming favorable for a tropical depression to form. Most = mid and long-range models now indicate the development of a tropical depres= sion east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday or Wednesday. With favorable = upper-level winds and very warm water in the region, we can see no reason w= hy development will not occur. We now estimate the chance for development t= o be 70-80 percent. The next question would be - where will the system go= should it develop? This seems fairly straightforward. High pressure to the= north will be weakening by Wednesday afternoon. This should allow the deve= loping storm to track northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thu= rsday afternoon. Timing will play a major role here. If the depression/stor= m moves into the southeastern Gulf earlier, then the threat for landfall wi= ll be farther westward - perhaps even the Florida Panhandle. The later the = system enters the Gulf, the farther east the track would likely be - perhap= s the lower Florida Peninsula. In either case, it appears that Florida is a= t greatest risk with this developing system. As for how strong it might g= et, upper-level winds are now quite favorable for development in the northw= est Caribbean, so we can see nothing to stop any depression in the area fro= m quickly intensifying to at least a moderate tropical storm. Some models a= re indicating that this system has the potential to become a hurricane once= it moves into the southern Gulf. We certainly can't rule that out, but the= re still remains a bit of upper-level wind shear across the southeastern Gu= lf. This wind shear could certainly hinder development as the system moves = northward into the Gulf. But regardless of how strong the storm gets, Flori= da will likely be receiving quite heavy rainfall next Friday/Saturday as th= e system moves across the state. Beyond Florida, current projections take= a storm off the east U.S. coast and merge it with a fairly strong cold fro= nt. It is quite possible that the storm would be losing tropical characteri= stics as it heads northward off the east U.S. coast. In fact, the air along= the east U.S. coast from Virginia northward may even be cold enough for so= me snow as the storm passes off to the east early next week. Finally, it = currently looks unlikely that any developing storm in the southeastern Gulf= would track northwestward toward the Texas or Louisiana coasts. Mid and up= per-level steering flow appears to be from the SSW-SW. This would prevent a= ny motion to the northwest. Tropical Atlantic: Tropical Depression 14 = remains about 1500 miles northeast of the Caribbean. The depression is head= ing out to sea and will be no threat to any land areas. There are no other = significant disturbances in the tropics. Chris Hebert =09
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