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----- Forwarded by Steven J Kean/NA/Enron on 02/20/2001 03:25 PM ----- Michael Hicks@ECT 02/15/2001 09:29 AM To: Steven J Kean/NA/Enron@Enron cc: Bill Donovan/EPSC/HOU/ECT@ECT Subject: Dabhol Steve: I asked our consultant who provided assistance on the NEPCO project in Pakistan to give us some thoughts on Dabhol. I have also discussed this with Pete van de Gohm and he is working with Steve Reistetter at EE&CC. Our thoughts are that we really need the DPC folks in Mumbai involved, as they will have to liaise with the authorities. They probably are already involved, but nobody's bringing me into the loop from that end. Regards, Mike Hicks ----- Forwarded by Michael Hicks/EPSC/HOU/ECT on 02/15/2001 09:24 AM ----- PhilEJones@aol.com 02/14/2001 09:25 AM To: Michael.Hicks@enron.com cc: Subject: Dabhol 14 Feb Dear Mike: I'm probably not going to tell you anything you haven't thought of, but here's my response: Doesn't sound too good. These groups have been losing out in the great transition between Nehruvian mercantile-socialism and the current effort to get India--at least half way--into the world economy. Some of their demonstrations in Andhra Pradesh recently turned violent. These also were focused on privatization issues and the decline of the state-owned sector (where these groups dominate). These groups have allies in the more radical environmental groups. They are trying to revive their political base and, in India, there's nothing like a big American company to focus on, particularly on the issue of electricity rates--something that affects everybody. Not being familiar with the site, access or connections to the outside world, I can't comment on those aspects. I assume Dabhol has a PR effort going to show how Maharashtra people and industry need reliable supplies of electricity, etc. Generally, I think you have to plan for the worst, but look for avenues to reduce tensions--open up a back channel to the leaders now, hold any demonstration well short of the perimeter, but let a small group in to present petitions, etc. Make sure the state level politicians and senior bureaucrats guarantee the facility will be protected. If something really big seems to be in the works, see if they will put the plant and surrounding area under Section 144 (or whatever the successor emergency regulation is)--it prohibits meetings and allows the police to break up demonstrations before they get started. Work with the State Home Secretary and district level Superintendent of Police to make sure sufficient police will be on site to hold the perimeter and protect key facilities--the control room, fuel supply, plant. Above all, make sure an experienced, senior majestrate will be on site empowered to raise the level of response--but only if really needed. The Indians have a well-developed command and control system for these kinds of demonstrations. Escalation starts at baton charging and moves on to tear gas. If the police are attacked violently and have difficulty holding, the majestrate can order live firing over the heads of the demonstrators. If police are in danger of being overrun and suffering casualties, the majestrate can order firing into the mob. Obviously, you don't want things to go that far. There are lots of tactical possibilities in the early stages and cagey police officers will use them. These are things the police and majestrates can do, but which your own security force is not legally empowered to do, at least outside the perimeter. Your counsel in Maharashtra can tell you what are the legalities of your own security force using force to protect your property. Based on that, you can take the appropriate steps to deploy your own security force. In the vast majority of cases, these kinds of demonstrations are contained without much problem. Very occasionally, they do get out of hand--and one has to be ready for that. Hope this helps, Phil Jones, Ph.D. Deodar Associates, Inc.
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