Enron Mail |
The leadership situation in Japan is always relatively volatile and this
period is no exception. Following a further political gall by the PM over the North Korean hostage situation and ongoing adverse media attention on his cabinet, it is likely that the PM and his senior cabinet will be replaced within weeks, if not days. As a matter of protocol the successors to the Prime Minister and Minister of State, Nakagawa, will keep the appointments set by the predecessors. The focus is more on the position than the individual - so the Minister of State will open the office in the name of the PM whether it is Nakagawa or someone else. Similarly, Mr Lay will have a meeting with the PM whether it is Mori or his successor. Fortunately, we have very good relationships with the person most likely to be the next PM of Japan - Mr Katoh - and the person who will most likely be the next head of the Governing LDP - Mr Kamei. Both Mr Katoh and Mr Kamei have indicated that they will attend the office opening. As mentioned in my previous note, we had anticipated that the budget legislation would have been passed well before the office opening. I also mentioned that the budget is likely to pass on the 31st or 1st. One possible scenario on the timing for the replacement of Mori is immediately after the budget legislation is passed. That timing would be problematic for us, as most senior politicians would be focused on the change of leadership during that period. I will keep you informed as the political situation develops.
|