Enron Mail |
Steve, et al --
RAC is finishing up its activities on the Quebecor transaction. Quebecor is the reformulated World Color Press deal from a few years ago. We are still trying to understand which utilities are key for the Quebecor deal. The positions are very dispersed. Many of the positions are behind munis and coops. It is my understanding that the contract will supply 1.4MM Mwh / year across the country at about 100 sites. Rather than trying to identify a specific $$ amount of Profit at Risk due to Regulatory Risk (which requires specific knowledge of rate curves and positions), I am recommending that RAC highlight to Mgmt the impact from a $1/Mwh increase in T&D rates across the board. This equals a $9.3 MM loss for EES (@ PV8). [This will not be a reduction to the overall NPV value - just a comment in the Risk Description]. As a point of reference, a $1/Mwh increase is about a 2.9% increase in T&D and a 1.2% increase in Total Rate (assume $35/Mwh for T&D with a total bill of $80/Mwh for Commercial customers). In general, the probability of all sites having a 2.9% increase in T&D rates is rather low. Finally, Scott Stoness is pulling the Top 5 Utilities by position for the Quebecor deal so that we can perform additional analysis on critical rate curves. If this highlights any additional problems, we will include in the DASH. JDS
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