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Enron Mail |
Atlantic Tropical Development Outlook Issued: 08:30 AM Friday Octob= er 26, 2001 [IMAGE] Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: The only disturbanc= e in the tropics that has any chance at all of affecting any land areas is = a tropical wave in the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica. This wave is cu= rrently interacting with a fairly strong upper-level low pressure center to= its west. The low center is producing considerable upper-level wind shear = across the wave, preventing any development. However, there are some indica= tions that this upper-level low may weaken in 2-3 days. If this occurs, the= n there might be some slight chance for tropical development in the northwe= stern Caribbean. Certainly, we need to keep a close eye on any disturbanc= e in the northwestern Caribbean, even this late in the storm season. Water = temperatures are quite warm enough for tropical development there. The main= inhibiting factor would be fairly strong southwesterly winds aloft across = the southern Gulf. If anything should develop near the Yucatan peninsula ea= rly next week, it would almost certainly be a very weak tropical system, wi= th thunderstorms displaced well to the northeast of any low-level center. W= e've seen many such systems over the past two seasons. Regardless of whethe= r or not this tropical wave develops, it does have the potential to bring s= howers and thunderstorms to southern Florida toward the middle to end of ne= xt week. We estimate the chances for development to be about 5-10 percent. = Tropical Atlantic: A tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic= southwest of the Azores is interacting with an upper-level low pressure ce= nter. There may be a very slight chance for some tropical development in th= e region, but this system will not affect any land areas at all. Chris He= bert =09
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