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Enron Mail |
Attached below please find the cash flow/tariff increase study we discussed 2
1/2 weeks ago at the Sunday DPC strategy session. The study assumes a decrease in losses from 40% to 25% and an increase in collection efficiency 83% to 92% from 2000-01 to 2006-07. Further, it is assumed that only one block of DPC operates until 2006-07. Two scenarios based on average realisation are illustrated: 1. A realistic cash flow study and accompanying tariffs. Given the above assumptions and assuming there is no state subsidy in 2006-07, MSEB should have a cash flow deficit of R34 Cr. in 2006-07 when Phase II comes on line for sale to MSEB, given a reasonable annual tariff increase. (See the tariff sheet in gray shaded area.) The annual rate increases would be15% for LT and HT agriculture and LT public water works, a 10% increase for domestic, street lights and interstate sales, a 4% increase for LT industrial and powerloom, and 1% increase for LT commercial and HT industrial, public water works and railways. 2. The annual tariff increases needed for MSEB to break even with a 3% profit, assuming industrial and commercial classes are held flat, are detailed below. (See the Tariff sheet in red.) Domestic 8% LT Public Water Works 35.60% LT Agriculture and Poultry 26% Street Light 10.8% HT Agricultural & Poultry 26.9% Mula Pravara Electric Coop Soc. 24.30% Interstate sales 6.5% It is obvious that even the more realistic scenario would require strong MSEB, state government and regulator resolve. In a separate e:mail I will describe the cost of service study we have also developed for MSEB. ---------------------- Forwarded by Jane Wilson/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT on 02/06/2001 11:08 AM --------------------------- Heidi Hellmann 02/06/2001 09:43 PM To: Jane Wilson/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT cc: Ban Sharma/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT Subject: Latest Model/Summary Jane, Attached is the latest summary (hard coded numbers, like I sent before) and the latest cashflow model in case that is required for anything. Just to confirm all that has changed are the customer categories and the MU's in 1999-2000.
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