|
|
Enron Mail |
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Schneider, Chip </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=CSCHNEID< X-To: Kitchen, Louise </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Lkitchen<, Calger, Christopher F. </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Ccalger<, Duran, W. David </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Dduran<, Hoog, David </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Dhoog<, Barbour, Karen L. </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Kbarbou<, Bittner, Rick </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Rbittne<, Brown, Kortney </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Kbrown<, Cangucu, Andre </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Acanguc<, Caudle, Becky </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Bcaudle<, Conwell, Wendy </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Wconwell<, Davenport, Lacrecia </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Ldavenpo<, Figueroa, Xochitl </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Xfiguero<, Gorny, Vladimir </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Vgorny<, Griffin, Sherri </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Sgriffin<, Hayden, Frank </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Fhayden<, Horton, Kenneth </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Khorton<, Ibarra, Felipe </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Fibarra<, Ngo, Tracy </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Tngo<, Port, David </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Dport<, Radous, Paul </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Pradous<, Rohauer, Tanya </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Trohaue<, Sacks, Edward </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Esacks<, Schneider, Chip </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Cschneid<, Soo, Jeffrey A. </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Jsoo< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Kitchen, Louise\'Americas\East Power X-Origin: KITCHEN-L X-FileName: louise kitchen 2-7-02.pst -----Original Message----- From: Stein, Neil [mailto:neil.stein@csfb.com] Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 7:14 AM To: undisclosed-recipients Subject: CSFB Independent Power Weekly-Issue #38; Response to BarronsArti cle Included Good Morning, Attached, please find the latest issue of our Independent Power Weekly. <<IPW080601.pdf<< Also note that on September 10 and 11, CSFB will host a Power Generation Supply Chain Conference at the Plaza Hotel in New York City. This event is designed to provide investors with a wholistic perspective on all aspects of the sector-from coal and natural gas companies, to equipment and construction service providers, to the power producers themselves. Please contact us if you would like additional information. 1. IPPs Rise 0.4% Last week our IPP composite rose 0.4%, slightly underperforming both the NASDAQ (+1.8%) and the S&P 500 (+0.7%). Mirant, which was up 6.1%, was the strongest performer in the group. Shaw Group was the weakest performer, falling 5.9%. 2. Barrons Predicts "Power Glut" Over the weekend an article in Barrons suggested that the industry was facing a generation capacity glut, which would have negative investment implications for some of the Independent Power Producers. In support of this thesis, the article cited the large number of announced capacity additions as well as recent power price trends. We dispute this article's conclusions for 3 reasons. 1. Announced capacity additions cannot be taken at face value; 2. The article's thesis does not consider the potential for retirement of existing capacity, and 3. The regional characteristics of the power generation market resist such broad sweeping generalizations. 3. Credit Spreads Continue to Improve Importantly, while our IPP equity composite has traded off more than 10% over the last few weeks, IPP credit spreads continue to tighten. For example, while Calpine shares have traded off 11% since July 6, the spreads on CPN's 10 year 8.5% notes due 2011 have actually tightened by more than 50 basis points. Last week alone, CPN spreads tightened by 12 basis points, while the stock traded off 3%. To cite another example, while Mirant shares have traded off 8% over the same period, the spreads on MIR's 7.9% notes due 2009 have tightened by 55 basis points. 4. Q2 Earnings Review Last week second quarter earnings results were reported by Black Hills, Cleco, DPL, Entergy, Mirant and Orion Power. Upside surprises were reported by DPL, ETR, MIR and ORN. Versus expectations, Mirant's results were the strongest, coming in 21% above our estimate. Cleco was the only company that posted an earnings disappointment, reporting Q2 results that were 22% below our estimate. 5. Power Market Update Last week power prices were up considerably as evidenced by the 27% increase in the Mirant National Power Index. With the exception of the Western market, power prices got a boost from hot temperatures that blanketed most of the country. The Texas market experienced unusual volatility owing to recent wholesale market design changes and the initiation of a retail competition pilot program. Regards, Neil Stein 212/325-4217 This message is for the named person's use only. It may contain confidential, proprietary or legally privileged information. No confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission. If you receive this message in error, please immediately delete it and all copies of it from your system, destroy any hard copies of it and notify the sender. You must not, directly or indirectly, use, disclose, distribute, print, or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended recipient. CREDIT SUISSE GROUP and each of its subsidiaries each reserve the right to monitor all e-mail communications through its networks. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, except where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state them to be the views of any such entity. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this message is indicative only, is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. Any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation.
|