Enron Mail

From:kristin.walsh@enron.com
To:john.lavorato@enron.com, louise.kitchen@enron.com,jeffrey.shankman@enron.com
Subject:California Update 2/20/01
Cc:gary.hickerson@enron.com, richard.shapiro@enron.com,vince.kaminski@enron.com, james.steffes@enron.com, michelle.cisneros@enron.com, jeff.kinneman@enron.com, john.greene@enron.com, jaime.gualy@enron.com, phillip.allen@enron.com, mike.grigsby@enron.co
Bcc:gary.hickerson@enron.com, richard.shapiro@enron.com,vince.kaminski@enron.com, james.steffes@enron.com, michelle.cisneros@enron.com, jeff.kinneman@enron.com, john.greene@enron.com, jaime.gualy@enron.com, phillip.allen@enron.com, mike.grigsby@enron.co
Date:Tue, 20 Feb 2001 19:26:00 -0800 (PST)


Bankruptcy
=09
Today, California Energy Operating Corporation sued Southern California Edi=
son seeking payment for November and December power sales, totalling $45M. =
This move is likely a sign of things to come. It shows that generators do =
not believe that there will be a viable solution from the governor. CalEn=
ergy is positioning themselves as a primary creditor. Past experience dic=
tates that lawsuits are often used as a means of communication in bankruptc=
y situations. In the case of a judgement in CalEnergy's favor, CalEnergy w=
ould be able to seize Edison's bank assets assuming there is no bankruptcy =
in the meantime. It is another strategy for getting paid without actually =
filing an involuntary bankruptcy. However, if there are enough of these su=
its or if Edison ignores a judgement in CalEnergy's favor, it will very lik=
ely be enough to trigger an involuntary bankruptcy filing, followed closely=
by a voluntary filing. The generators are stating that they will not subs=
cribe to any deal until their past bills are paid. There currently is no a=
rrangement to pay the generators for power they are supplying to the ISO. =
Thus, the generators are beginning to see the utilities and the state as on=
e and the same.

The governor is reportedly trying to come up with a plan that will result i=
n the lowest possible rate increase in order to minimize the public's react=
ion. The governor has stated that he will put a plan in place in accordanc=
e with the "existing rate structure." According to Rosenfield, he is consi=
dering a 19% rate increase. This number was arrived at by combining the 9%=
temporary, emergency increase passed by the PUC and a 10% rate reduction i=
mposed by the legislature under bill AB 1890 that is scheduled to expire ne=
xt month. This increase would be put in place for as long as necessary to =
pay back the utilities' debt. This plan contrasts enacting a 30% or 40% ra=
te increase over a period of a few years. A lower increase over a longer p=
eriod of time, coupled with the financing charges over that same period, is=
likely to have a detrimental effect on the California economy in compariso=
n to its neighbors.

Consumer Advocacy Group

The consumer groups continue to insist that the generators give something u=
p as part of any deal. According to a source close to Harvey Rosenfield, h=
ead of a leading consumer advocacy group in California, Rosenfield feels th=
e longer it takes the governor to flesh out a deal with the utilities, the =
lower the price offered for the transmission assets will be. This is due t=
o public pressure on elected officials not to enter into a bailout agreemen=
t; the pressure will only increase as time passes