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F R I D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Friday: The CRB Index is lower 0.64 points to 194.39. The US Dollar Index moved down 0.26 points to 116.62. The Dow Industrials declined 80.61 points, at 9987.53, while the S&P 500 slipped 10.95 points, last seen at 1145.60. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 24.78 points to 2022.46. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html _____________________________________________________________________ LINDA RASCHKE VIDEO! _____________________________________________________________________ 'Classic Indicators - Back to the Future' http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/FMV2871-Raschke Dear Andrew: Charismatic professional trader Linda Raschke employs classic methods handed down by the forefathers of technical analysis. Join in and let Linda guide you in a first rate keynote address given at a recent international trading conference. This video of Linda is available only at INO.com. Supplies are limited and this offer could end at anytime. We've priced this video at just $49.95 to make it affordable to everyone. Order today to avoid disappointment. http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/FMV2871-Raschke <a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/FMV2871-Raschke"< Classic Indicators - Back to the Future</a< Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Friday amidst bearish comments about the economy by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. The NASDAQ posted a key reversal down on Friday thereby setting the stage for a likely test of the September-January uptrend line crossing near 2000 possibly on Monday. Closes below this support level would open the door for additional weakness and possible test of December's low crossing at 1918.50 later this winter. Momentum indicators are turning bearish with today's loss increasing the odds that a short- term top has been posted. The NASDAQ closed down 24.78 points at 2022.46. The March S&P 500 index posted a key reversal down and closed below the Dec./Jan. uptrend line crossing near 1148.70. Closes below last week's low at 1136.50 would confirm that a double top has been posted. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the later part of January. The Dow closed lower on Friday and below the Dec./Jan. uptrend line crossing near 10,045 thereby confirming that a short-term top has likely been posted. Closes below last week's low crossing at 9935.70 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the later part of January. Momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed higher on Friday confirming Thursday's breakout above this winter's trading range. Today's rally was underpinned by December's unexpected drop in the Producer Price Index number, which was off 0.7%, the largest decline in 15 year. Additional support came from indications by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan that we could see another interest rate cut in the first quarter of this year. Stochastics are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The door is open for a possible test of December's reaction high crossing at 105-06 in the near future. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed lower on Friday due to weakness in cattle, fiber, foods and energies. Losses were limited due to renewed strength in the grain markets with the CRB index challenging the broken weekly downtrend line. Closes below this broken resistance level would signal at the very least a pause in the rally off last October's low. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible if the CRB can close above Wednesday's high at 195.97. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Friday as weak demand and concerns that compliance with OPEC's recently announce production cuts will be poor continues to weigh on prices. Additional pressure came from heating oil, which has been under pressure due to weak demand caused by this winter's mild temps. February crude oil closed into new lows for the week on Friday as it extended this week's breakout below December's broken uptrend line. The door is open for additional weakness into the later part of January with the Nov.-Dec. uptrend line crossing near 19.27 being the next likely target. Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of last year's lows later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is still possible near-term. February heating oil closed lower on Friday thereby confirming this week's breakout below last week's bear flag formation. The low-range close leaves the door open for additional weakness on Monday as a test of December's low crossing at 50.70 is a likely target later this month. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling additional weakness is possible near-term. February unleaded gas plunged to new lows for the week on Friday and is challenging last week's low crossing at 57.20. Closes below this support level would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the later part of January with the Nov.-Dec. uptrend line crossing near 53.90 being a potential target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness appears likely. February Henry Hub natural gas posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday as it consolidates above weekly support crossing at 2.17. If this support level gives way, psychological support crossing at 2.00 is a potential target later this month. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. Extended weather forecast both in the U.S. and across Europe remain bearish as mild temps this winter continue to weigh on prices. The daily ADX remains in a bearish mode signaling that additional weakness appears likely into late-January. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's setback off Wednesday's high. The late week setback has turned stochastics and the RSI bearish again hinting that March might try and test this year's uptrend line crossing near 116.81 before the setback off Wednesday's high is complete. Longer-term March needs to close above 118.85 or below 116.00 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The March Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it rebounded of the 38% retracement level of the late-December rally. Closes above initial trendline resistance crossing near .6055 would confirm a bottom and likely resumption of December's rally. The March Canadian Dollar closed modestly higher on Friday as it continues to form a base off this winter's low at .6230. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .6290 or below .6230 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Momentum indicators are oversold but have not confirmed that a bottom is in place. The March Japanese Yen closed higher or the second day in a row on Friday and is challenging the fall downtrend line. The daily ADX is above 60 and turning down for the second time this week thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top has likely been posted. Closes above Monday's high at .7696 are needed to confirm a trendline breakout and bottom. Closes below monthly support crossing at .7558 would open for a test of the next level of long-term support crossing at .7210 later this winter. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed higher on Friday and just above the 62% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 287.60. If this resistance level is cleared, the 75% retracement level crossing at 291.40 is February's next target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but becoming overbought warning traders that this week's rally may prove to be a blow off run to complete the correction, which began in December. March silver closed slightly lower on Friday falling just short of October's high crossing at 4.74. The ADX (a trend- following indicator) is bullish however, it is well above the +DI and above 40 indicating that the rally off last fall's low is reaching maturity. If October's high at 4.74 is cleared, last September's high at 4.795 is a potential target later this winter. March copper posted an upside reversal on Friday due to a short covering rebound ahead of the close. Additional strength on Monday is needed to signal that March is poised to renew this year's rally. Closes above 72.40 would set the stage for a test of November's high crossing at 73.70 later this month. Stochastics remains bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the later part of January. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn gapped up and closed higher on Friday following today's friendly crop production and supply/demand reports. The USDA's final corn crop estimate came in at 9.507 billion bushels versus 9.546 billion last month. Ending stocks were estimated at 1.541 billion bushels versus 1.569 billion in December. December 1st corn stocks came in at 8.264 billion bushels while the trade was expecting to see 8.326 billion bushels. Ending stocks for last December were 8.518 billion bushels. The combination of lower corn production and lower ending stocks supported today's rally as it appears that March's decline off its December high has fully discounted all of the known bearish news in the market at this time. Session highs fell short of testing December's downtrend line crossing near 2.14 1/4. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Monday. Closes above the aforementioned downtrend line would confirm a bottom and trend change. March wheat posted a key reversal up and closed above the upper boundary of the weekly trading range crossing at 3.04. Closes above fib resistance crossing at 3.09 1/2 would open the door for a likely test of last July's high crossing at 3.20 later this winter. Today's rally was triggered by this morning's bullish winter wheat planting report. The USDA estimated winter wheat seeding at 41.031 million acres. The trade was expecting 41.877 million acres. This is the lowest total winter wheat seeding since 1971 and 47,000 acres below last year's level. Nobody expected a drop in winter wheat seeding from year-ago levels, which has caught the market off guard. This will make early season crop concerns just that much more important. December 1st wheat stocks were pegged at 1.623 billion bushels, which was on target with trade guesses. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday following this morning's friendly USDA crop production and supply/demand reports. The USDA estimated 2001's bean crop at 2.891 billion bushels compared with 2.924 billion in December. Ending stocks came in at 285 million bushels down from 330 in December. December 1st stocks were pegged at 2.276 billion bushels compared with trade guesses of 2.333 billion bushels. Today's reports confirm what everyone already knows. Demand remains very strong for U.S. soybeans, which is up 7% from year ago levels. South America's soybean crop estimates came in at 42.5 million metric tonnes for Brazil and 28.75 million metric tonnes for Argentina, which was inline with trade expectations. Today's new high close for the week confirmed Wednesday's breakout above last fall's downtrend line and opens the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 4.57 1/2 later this winter. March soybean meal gapped above initial fib resistance crossing at 150 and closed sharply higher on the day following this morning's friendly USDA reports for soybeans and meal. Today's high fell just short of testing the 38% retracement level of the July/January decline, which crosses at 155. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for follow-through buying in early trading on Monday. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed higher on Friday due to talk of steady to higher cash bids on Monday and a positive product price outlook. Session highs fell just short of testing key weekly resistance crossing at 61.13. Momentum indicators are overbought while the daily ADX is bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below this week's gap crossing at 59.52 would greatly increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted. April cattle closed lower on Friday amidst a lack of cash trading and lower midday boxed beef prices. Today's close below Wednesday's low negated this week's key reversal up and leaves the door open for sideways to lower prices on Monday with today's mid-range close. Momentum indicators are very overbought and turning bearish with today's action thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top is in or near. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee opened lower and remained under pressure through out the session due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend. Increased cash movement and producer hedging as the harvest in Vietnam and Central America expands also weighed on prices. Losses were somewhat exaggerated as stop losses were triggered below today's low. However, March failed to fill Wednesday's gap at 48.75 leaving the door open for a possible run at November's high of 53.00 next week. March cocoa closed lower on Friday and below broken resistance crossing at 1365 thereby confirming Thursday's key reversal down. Closes below trendline support crossing near 1350 are needed to confirm a top has likely been posted. Momentum indicators are overbought warning bullish traders that a top is in or near. I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Monday. March sugar closed lower on Friday due to profit taking and closed below this week's gap crossing at 780 and the Dec.- Jan. uptrend line thereby increasing the odds that Thursday's time turn marked a short-term top. Momentum indicators are overbought and are turning bearish with Friday's loss thereby increasing the odds that a top is in or near. March cotton closed lower on Friday following this morning's USDA report. The report showed last year's cotton crop at 20.084 million bales compared with December's estimate of 20.06 million bales. Ending stocks came in at 8.6 million bales compared with 8.4 million bales in December. World ending stocks rose from 43.51 to 44.08 million bales. March cotton remains range bound and needs to close above 39.80 or below 34.90 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. Until then look for back and fill type trading to continue. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Pacific Exchange To Trade Options on Gentiva Health Services. http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27702 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS SMF2 Soybean Meal Jan 2002 161.5 8.4 +5.49 XEH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 154.4 7 +4.75 XSF2 Soybeans Jan 2002 445 12 1/4 +2.83 SF2 Soybeans Jan 2002 445 11 1/4 +2.60 XWN2 Wheat Jul 2002 301 1/4 6 1/2 +2.20 XCH2 Corn Mar 2002 212 3/4 4 +1.92 WN2 Wheat Jul 2002 301 5 1/2 +1.86 DBU2 Butter Sep 2002 152.000 2.750 +1.83 CH2 Corn Mar 2002 212 1/2 3 3/4 +1.80 PNJ2 Propane Apr 2002 0.2900 0.0050 +1.74 LOSERS CLF3 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jan 2003 20.86 -1.04 -4.89 QLH2 Central Appalachian Coal Mar 2002 27.00 -1.00 -3.57 KCH2 Coffee 'C' Mar 2002 49.55 -1.80 -3.51 HOH2 Heating Oil Mar 2002 0.5472 -0.0169 -3.02 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.5731 -0.0156 -2.65 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 7.76 -0.18 -2.27 XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 195 3/4 -3 3/4 -1.92 NDM2 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2002 1654.50 -30.00 -1.79 NKU2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Sep 2002 10450 -190 -1.79 LBF2 Random Length Lumber Jan 2002 238.50 -3.90 -1.61 FREE NYBOT Commodity and Option Handbook Plus Bi-Weekly Hightower Report http://www.ino.com/specials/comek/nybotintro.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS PLSK PULASKI BANCORP INC 32.2200 7.6500 +31.10 CVST COVISTA COMM INC 7.5000 1.3200 +19.91 LIBB LIBERTY BANCORP 15.8000 2.5000 +18.52 MTRX MATRIX SERVICE 8.0000 1.1988 +17.76 SNCI SONIC INNOVATIONS 5.0300 0.7600 +17.67 ONDI ONTRACK DATA INTL 8.2400 1.1700 +16.71 VISG VISAGE TECHNOLOGY INC 8.9000 1.2200 +15.89 VERS VERSICOR INC 24.1600 3.1004 +14.59 OTEC ORATEC INTERVENTIONS 7.9300 0.9600 +14.04 GERN GERON CORP 10.1500 1.1500 +12.76 LOSERS CREE CREE INC 23.6000 -7.3100 -23.85 KM-T K MART FINANCING I 7.75% PFD 16.22 -4.89 -23.01 JPST JPS INDUSTRIES INC 5.1100 -0.8300 -16.24 DAGR GREEN(DANIEL) CO 6.0000 -0.9500 -15.83 NEOL NEOPHARM INC 20.0500 -3.6800 -15.79 GISX GLOBAL IMAGING SYS 18.0000 -3.1800 -15.22 PRTN PROTON ENERGY SYS 7.6500 -1.1900 -13.69 HYGS HYDROGENICS CORP 7.8300 -1.0400 -11.83 TOO TOO INC 25.55 -3.30 -11.52 HDTV SPATIALIGHT INC 7.2300 -0.9100 -11.38 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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