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F R I D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Friday: The CRB Index is up 0.81 points to 189.85. The US Dollar Index gained 1.10 points to 119.74. The Dow Industrials climbed 44.01 points, at 9840.08, while the S&P 500 edged higher by 1.13 points, last seen at 1133.28. The Nasdaq Composite trended lower by 4.88 points to 1937.70. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE 2002 FUTURES & OPTIONS TRADING GUIDE Plus Bi-Weekly Hightower Report http://www.ino.com/specials/comek/tradeguide.html _____________________________________________________________________ TIME, PRICE and PATTERN (video, book AND alerts!) http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/INTPP-TimePrice _____________________________________________________________________ FORECAST THE FUTURE, PROJECT HIGHS & LOWS AND DISCOVER HOW THE 1,2,3 METHOD REALLY WORKS! Dear Andrew: Introducing TIME, PRICE and PATTERN from trading war room veteran John Crane. 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AVAILABILITY LIMITED - Order Today! http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/INTPP-TimePrice <a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/INTPP-TimePrice"<Click for TIME, PRICE and PATTERN!</a< Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Friday due to disappointing earnings forecasts, which offset more optimistic prospects for a recovery in the economy. The NASDAQ gapped down on the open and closed this week's gap crossing at 1925.15 before rebounding on light short covering ahead of the close. Momentum indicators are bottoming and hint that a low might be in or near following this week's bounce of the 38% retracement level crossing at 1826.96 marked a short-term bottom. The NASDAQ closed down 48.80 points at 1937.70. The March S&P 500 index also closed steady on Friday at 1133.30. The Dow closed out the week on a high note on Friday due to growing optimism about a recovery in the economy. Additional support came from technical buying triggered by the Dow's ability to hold above key fib support crossing at 9706.20. Short-term momentum indicators are turning bullish from oversold conditions signaling that a low is in or near. Closes above minor resistance crossing at 9857.70 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the market. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed lower on Friday but off session lows due to a short covering bounce ahead of the weekend. Early weakness was tied to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not be cutting interest rates again when it meets next week. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Monday. However, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early February. If the decline continues, December's uptrend line crossing near 101-00 is March's next target. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed higher on Friday due to strength in livestock, some precious metals, fiber, some foods and energies. Friday's close above the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 189.40 hints that a short-term bottom might be near. However, closes above 191 will be needed before this can be confirmed. If this decline continues, the 62% retracement level crossing at 187.85 is the CRB's next target. Momentum indicators are bearish but becoming oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed higher on Friday although trading was subdued as cash trading in the February contract wrapped up today. Most traders upon completion of their deals for February remained on the sidelines in no hurry to jump into the March contracts. Light technical support came from ideas that the U.S. economy has bottomed out and a recovery is beginning to take shape, which should eventually manifest itself in higher energy demand later this year. March crude oil extended its short covering rally on Friday closing at broken uptrend line support crossing near 20.00. Multiple closes above this broken support level are needed before a double bottom can be confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish with this week's rebound increasing the odds that a low is in or near. March heating oil closed modestly higher on Friday but failed to clear minor resistance marked by last week's high crossing at 54.70. Closes above this resistance level are needed to increase the odds that a short-term bottom has been posted. At the same time a number of short-term momentum indicators are turning bullish signaling that a bottom has likely been posted. March unleaded gas closed higher on Friday retracing 50% of this month's decline this week. While short-term momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that a low has been posted, I would not be surprised to see the market under some selling pressure on Monday as rising inventories and weak demand will likely limit upside potential near-term. Longer-term, I am looking for March to work its way higher possibly testing the 62-cent area by early-February. March Henry Hub natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of its recent losses. However, the door remains open for additional weakness into early February with weekly support crossing at 1.76 marking a potential target later this winter. Momentum indicators are oversold but suggest that additional weakness near-term is possible. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar soared to new contract highs on Friday thereby confirming Thursday's breakout above December's high crossing at 118.85. Today's rally was triggered by growing optimism of a recovery in the U.S. economy that are better than the market had originally thought after Fed Chairman Greenspan's speech on January 11. Today's high spiked above key weekly resistance crossing at 120.11. If this resistance level is cleared, last year's high crossing at 121.29 is March's next upside target. While stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, trend-following indicators such as the ADX are ending a bullish mode signaling that additional strength is possible this winter. The March Swiss Franc plunged to new lows for the month against the Dollar but fell short of testing December's spike low crossing at .5797. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss while leaving the door open for a possible inside day on Monday. However, the daily ADX has entered a bearish mode signaling that additional weakness near-term is likely into early-February. The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday and below broken support crossing at .6230 thereby ending this week's short covering bounce. March's inability to sustain this week's breakout above broken support crossing at .6230 leaves the door open for a possible resumption of the decline off December's high. Today's sell off turned a number of momentum indicators bearish once again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early- February. The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of this week's losses. However, the rebound failed to test broken weekly support crossing at .7558 thereby leaving the door open for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the next level of long-term support crossing at .7371. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely. I am looking for a short-term bottom to be posted by the middle of next week. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed modestly higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the weekend as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 278.70. However, stochastics are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into early- February. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 276 is February's next target. March silver closed higher on Friday due to technical short covering. Access trading saw March test broken support marked by the 62% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 4.327. A sell off ahead of the close tempered today's gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Monday. If the decline resumes, the 75% retracement level crossing at 4.221 marks the next downside target. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early February. March copper posted a downside reversal due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend. Early strength spiked above last week's high crossing at 71.40. However, March needs to close above this minor resistance level to temper the bearish outlook in the market. Until then, this week's rebound is nothing more that a short covering bounce. Momentum indicators are bullish but nearing their respective overbought zones hinting that we could see additional pressure into early-February. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed fractionally lower on Friday despite a significant increase in this week's export sales. Weekly export sales came in at 51.33 million bushels some 42% above the previous weeks pace. While the sales number was impressive spillover weakness from soybeans combined with a soaring U.S. Dollar rendered the report mute by the close. Today's downside reversal leaves the market vulnerable to additional weakness on Monday especially if the dry regions across southern Brazil receive much needed rain over the weekend. From a broad perspective, the corn market continues to carve out what appears to be a major bottom as long-term fundamentals indicate that prices are too cheap. I suspect that the corn market will struggle to stay afloat into mid- February when the mid-winter low is due to be posted. March wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday, as much improved export sales this week helped to underpin today's rally. Additional support came from extended weather forecasts for next week, which are calling for significantly lower temperatures across the Plains that could burn back some stands. However, a soaring U.S. Dollar along with weakness in soybeans and corn limited today's rally. Momentum indicators remain bearish despite this week's bounce indicating that additional weakness is possible into early-February. I am still looking for one more break to new lows for the month with the late-December reaction low crossing at 2.83 marking the next likely downside target. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans posted a key reversal down on Friday. Revised weather forecasts for Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state have increased the amount of expected rainfall for this region over the weekend, which triggered today's sell off. Additional pressure came from rumors that China would be out of the U.S. soybean market until at least April because of the implementation of rules on GMO soybeans. Session lows fell short of testing gap support crossing at 4.28 1/2 and extending down to 4.26 3/4. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the first half of February when a mid-winter low is due to be posted. March soybean meal posted a downside reversal on Friday thereby setting the stage for additional weakness on Monday especially if South America receives rain over the weekend. If the decline off last week's high resumes, gap support crossing at 147.90 is March's next likely downside target. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into early-February. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed higher on Friday but ran into stiff resistance marked by the broken uptrend line drawn across the December-January lows. Closes above or below this week's trading range are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. This afternoon's monthly hogs and pigs report showed the December 2001 pig crop at 8.07 million head up 3% from the previous year. Farrowing were up 2% over last year and litter size rose to 8.8 pigs per litter compared to 8.66 pigs per litter last year. Talk of steady to higher cash bids for Monday leaves the door open for a steady to higher opening in April futures. April cattle closed higher for the Third day in a row on Friday as it spiked to a new high for the year. Support came from next week's winter weather forecast and higher cash bids for slaughter-ready cattle. Today's spiked to new highs for the month hint that cattle producers might be gaining the upper hand in the market as market ready cattle supplies are likely to decline into February. If April extends this week's rally next week, October's high at 75.45 is April's next target. Momentum indicators are turning bullish hinting that the cattle market is poised for one more drive to new highs for the winter. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed into new lows for the week on Friday amidst increased fund selling and producer hedging ahead of the weekend. Forecast calling for increased chances for precip across portions of Brazil's coffee growing region only adds to the bearish tone of the market as expectations for a record coffee crop continue to grow. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely into the end of January. This sets the stage for a possible test of this winter's low crossing at 44.75 later this winter. March cocoa closed higher on Friday amidst lackluster trading as it ended a one-day setback with today's higher close. Short-term momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, closes above 1422 or below 1260 are needed to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. March sugar closed higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend. Early weakness saw March fall just short of testing December's low crossing at 690. However, March's inability to test this support level along with today's high-range close leaves the door open for additional short covering on Monday. Closes above this week's gap crossing at 730 would signal that a short-term bottom has likely been posted. March cotton closed higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend despite today's disappointing export sales report. The report showed net cotton sales of 99,000 bales, which was well below last week's level and the 4-week average. However, this week's sell off largely discounted the drop off in sales. Nevertheless, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that a test of trading range support crossing near 34.91 is possible later this month. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Pacific Exchange To Trade Eighteen New Options. http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27738 New German Service, Xetra BEST, For Private Investors http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27737 Deutsche Borse Expands Exchange Traded Funds Sector http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27736 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS SIZ4 Silver Dec 2004 4.457 0.171 +3.86 LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 288.00 9.90 +3.56 CCH3 Cocoa Mar 2003 1200 35 +2.99 NGG2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Feb 2002 2.037 0.057 +2.78 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 7.13 0.18 +2.58 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.5828 0.0135 +2.37 CLZ2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Dec 2002 20.61 0.46 +2.27 PAH2 Palladium Mar 2002 388.15 7.00 +1.83 CTK2 Cotton May 2002 38.26 0.66 +1.76 RRK2 Rough Rice May 2002 4.105 0.065 +1.61 LOSERS XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 193 1/4 -6 1/2 -3.27 BOH2 Soybean Oil Mar 2002 15.06 -0.47 -3.03 OH2 Oats Mar 2002 193 1/4 -4 3/4 -2.39 AFK2 Aluminum May 2002 0.6525 -0.0135 -2.03 XPH2 British Pound Mar 2002 1.4044 -0.0274 -1.93 EJH2 Euro/Japanese Yen Mar 2002 115.66 -2.13 -1.81 KCZ2 Coffee 'C' Dec 2002 55.55 -0.90 -1.60 XSH2 Soybeans Mar 2002 430 3/4 -7 -1.60 SN3 Soybeans Jul 2003 460 -7 1/2 -1.60 SFH2 Swiss Franc Mar 2002 0.58690 -0.00940 -1.58 FREE: MANAGED FUTURES & IRA KIT AUDIO & VIDEO, reports, and info on Futures & Options IRAs http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/manfut.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS DTAGY DIGITALE TELEKABEL ADS 8.0000 3.7000 +73.27 TESTV TEST SECURITY 41.3500 11.5500 +26.32 USG USG CORP 8.50 1.45 +20.57 IMR IMCO RECYCLING 7.65 1.27 +19.91 NOBL NOBLE INTERNATIONAL LTD 11.8000 1.4700 +14.30 TREE LENDINGTREE INC 8.9900 1.1100 +14.10 GP GEORGIA-PACIFIC CORP 24.70 2.95 +13.56 DLTR DOLLAR TREE STORES 32.7800 3.7200 +12.80 ARTI ARTISAN COMPONENTS 14.5000 1.6700 +12.58 SNWL SONICWALL INC 20.3600 2.2400 +12.23 LOSERS RSAS RSA SECURITY INC 11.8600 -4.6800 -28.12 GTW GATEWAY INC 5.22 -1.14 -17.92 OPTV OPENTV CORP CL A 6.9900 -1.4700 -17.44 IMCL IMCLONE SYSTEMS 16.4900 -3.1600 -16.14 ACRT ACTRADE FINANCIAL TECH LTD 26.6190 -5.0800 -15.85 CNXS CNS INC 5.3900 -0.9500 -15.32 GHM GRAHAM CORP 10.75 -1.85 -15.23 BEIQ BEI TECHNOLOGIES 18.5300 -3.1700 -14.88 IINT INDUS INTL 6.6500 -1.0600 -13.50 TPTH TRIPATH IMAGING INC 6.2925 -0.8900 -12.45 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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