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F R I D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Friday: The CRB Index has advanced 1.71 points to 210.71. The US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.01 points to 119.08. The Dow Industrials gained 78.47 points, at 10990.41, while the S&P 500 rose 4.85 points, last seen at 1260.67. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 38.95 points to 2149.44. FREE Complete Copy: "Charting Made Easy" by John Murphy. An essential read and incredible offer!! http://www.ino.com/specials/infinity/ _____________________________________________________________________ Shocking Manual Loaded with Serious Money Strategies _____________________________________________________________________ It's Like Having A Guaranteed Income For Life!!! http://store.ino.com/sale/1DC1C/TWOV-Visually Dear Andrew: Just one of these automatic methods . . . JUST ONE . . . is enough for you to make a career trading options professionally. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES closed higher on Friday due to a rebound in technology stocks. The Nasdaq extended its rebound off Wednesday's low but failed to fill this week's gap crossing at 2170.58 thereby leaving the door open for sideways to lower prices during the first half of June. Momentum indicators also remain bearish indicating that the late week rebound in both indexes appears to be nothing more than light short covering ahead of the weekend. If the declines resume next week, May's reaction lows are potential targets. The Dow posted a key reversal up due to a rebound in blue chip stocks. Intel continued to pace the gainers among the Dow's components up 5.3%. The Dow's other three technology components were also higher on the day. Additional gains on Monday are needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern, which would then strongly suggest that the setback off May's high might have come to an end. INTEREST RATES September bonds closed sharply higher on Friday and above this spring's downtrend line crossing near 100-26 thereby signaling that a short-term bottom has been posted. I would not be surprised to see a modest setback on Monday as September might try and consolidate some of this week's gains. Early weakness was tied to the above-consensus May employment report. However, today's National Association of Purchasing Management's data, which continues to show weakness in manufacturing triggered a rally into the close. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices into early-June are possible. The CRB INDEX closed higher on Friday due to strength in grains, meats, precious metals, foods and fiber. The CRB ended the week above April's low crossing at 208.87 and may have marked a double bottom this week. Momentum indicators are bearish but oversold hinting that a short-term bottom might be in or near. Closes below this week's low would confirm a breakout below this spring's trading range while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into June. ENERGY MARKETS were mostly lower on Friday as Iraq indicate that it would continue oil exports this month under prior contracts, despite its rejection of a one-month extension of the oil-for-food deal. July crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday with session lows falling short of testing the 50% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 27.51. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. If the decline continues, the late-April reaction low crossing at 27.25 is July's next target. July heating oil posted an inside day with a lower close and a breakout below the 38% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 75.66. If the decline continues, May's reaction low crossing at 74.55, which coincides with the 50% retracement level of this spring's rally is July's next target. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices into early- June are possible. July unleaded gas posted a downside reversal on Friday after early strength tied to spillover short covering from Thursday's high-range close faded in afternoon trading. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices into next week are possible. However, ongoing concerns over summer gasoline supplies are likely to limit downside risk in the market. July Henry Hub natural gas posted a quiet inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday as it consolidates above last October's low crossing at 3.86. Closes below this key support level would open the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the 1999-01 rally crossing at 3.64 later this spring. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bearish however, momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a pause in this spring's decline is possible. CURRENCIES The September Dollar closed lower on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend. The mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways to higher prices on Monday as the door has been opened for additional gains during the first half of June. If this week's rally continues, weekly resistance that crosses at 121.58, which marks the 50% retracement level of the 1985/1992 decline is September's next target later this spring. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional weakness is possible. The September Swiss Franc posted a quiet inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated below broken support crossing at .5643. If the decline continues, a test of weekly support crossing at .5508 is possible later this month. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) signals that additional weakness is possible. The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday and is poised to test this spring's high crossing at .6541. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to renew this spring's rally. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains early next week are possible. The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday but near session lows due to light short covering ahead of the close. Nevertheless, this week's rally has confirmed a breakout above this spring's trading range crossing at .8425 thereby opening the door for additional gains into early-June. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains next week are possible. PRECIOUS METALS August gold closed higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the weekend. Nevertheless, August has broken out below April's uptrend line thereby opening the door for a test of this spring's low crossing at 257.30 later this month. Stochastics and RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible next week. July silver also closed higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the weekend. While today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Monday, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness during the first half of June is possible. If the decline continues, May's low at 4.315 is a target. July copper ended the week on a low note while posting an inside day. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that a test of May's low at 74.75 is likely next week. Multiple closes below this support level would confirm a breakout below this spring's trading range thereby opening the door for a test of weekly support crossing at 74.10 later this month. GRAINS July corn gapped above May's downtrend line and closed higher on Friday due to massive fund short covering. While today's export sales report of 30 million bushels was below expectations, rising concerns over slow crop development due to cool/wet weather are gaining attention by the market. With funds holding a huge short position in the market, any additional bullish news will only lead to additional short covering. I would not be surprised to see some consolidation on Monday as traders wait for the latest planting progress and crop conditions reports before taking additional profits on their short positions. Today's rally turned the ADX down, which is often associated with a market that is bottoming. From a broader perspective, the corn market has posted a key reversal on the weekly chart. Additional gains next week are needed to confirm this potentially bullish reversal pattern. July wheat also gapped up and closed higher on Friday following this week's bullish export sales report, which showed over 18 million bushels in new crop sales. Additional support came from increased concerns over disease problems with the Kansas winter wheat crop. Session highs tested May's downtrend line crossing at 2.72. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during June. Momentum indicators have also turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term are possible. SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans gapped above last week's high crossing at 4.53 1/2 and closed higher on Friday due to fund short covering. Increased concerns over the cool/wet weather, which has enveloped much of the Midwest thereby raising concerns over emergence and planting progress has underpinned this week's rally. Profit taking ahead of the close could lead to further consolidation on Monday. However, weekly momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices during June are possible. If the rally continues, March's high crossing at 4.77 3/4 is July's next target. July soybean meal closed lower on Friday despite this week's stellar export sales report of some 257,000 metric tonnes, which was well above pre-report estimates. Bulls should note today's downside reversal, as the market has not responded well to friendly news. This suggests that most of if not all of the bullish demand news might have already been factored into prices. Stochastics and RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices on Monday are possible. It will take closes above 168 to renew this spring's rally. LIVESTOCK August hogs closed sharply higher for the fourth day in a row filling April's gap crossing at 64.90. The stage is set for additional gains and a likely test of April's high crossing at 65.95 later this month. This week's rally underpinned by fund buying is due in part to futures discount to the cash market and ideas that loin prices should bottom next week. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices into early-June are possible. August cattle closed out the week on a high note as the stage is set for a test of January's high crossing at 75.00 next week. The discount of futures to the cash market along with higher cash bids this week continues to underpin August's rally. Momentum indicators are bullish but have become overbought warning traders to use caution as a top may be near. FOOD & FIBER July coffee closed higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the weekend. However, a sell off ahead of the close tempered much of today's early gains leaving the door open for sideways to lower prices next week. This week's breakout into new contract lows has opened the door for a test of long-term support crossing at 51.70 later this month. July cocoa closed higher on Friday due to light short covering following Thursday's breakout below trading range support crossing at 955. Momentum indicators remain bearish despite their oversold condition hinting that additional weakness into early-June is possible. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level at 862 is July's next target. July sugar closed higher on Friday due to light short covering as it consolidates around the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 857. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices next week is still possible. If the decline continues, fib support crossing at 832 then 808 are targets. July cotton extended this week's short covering rally as it consolidates above psychological support crossing at 40- cents. Light support came from today's export sales report that came in at 107,300 bales. Additional support came from news of some 300,000 to 350,000 acres of west Texas cotton being destroyed by flooding. However, upside potential remains limited due to this year's burdensome carryout levels, which are expected to grow in the coming year. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei ends almost flat despite US gains http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25622 Add2: US Equities Review: Higher on late buying despite weak NAPM http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25620 UK Stocks Review: Defensive stocks boost FTSE-100's small rally http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25628 FOREX US FX Review: Euro steepens losses despite weak US NAPM http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25624 Asia FX Review: Yen rises as intervention fears recede further http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25621 Europe FX Review: Weak US NAPM figure gives euro a reprieve http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25623 CREDIT US Credit Review: Long end gains on weak manufacturing data http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25619 Europe Credit Review: Evidence of economic weakness supports mkt http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25625 Japan Credit Review: June dips slightly on profit-taking http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25627 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Grains up on weather; 2-month gasoline low http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25626 EXCHANGES CME May Volume Up 60% As Open Interest Tops 13 Million http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24507 iShares ETF Sets Single-Day Volume Record On CBOE http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24506 Minneapolis OK's Cash-Settled Corn And Soybean Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24505 Euro Energy Exchange Records 1.64 Terawatt Hours In May http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24504 Eurex Trades 53.8 Million Contracts In May, Third Highest http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24503 May German Stock Volume Totals 386 Billion Euros http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24502 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS LBF2 Random Length Lumber Jan 2002 303.00 10.00 +3.41 CU1 Corn Sep 2001 206 3/4 6 1/4 +3.12 XCU1 Corn Sep 2001 206 3/4 5 3/4 +2.87 NDM1 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2001 1851.50 49.00 +2.72 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 2 23/32 +2.69 CCK2 Cocoa May 2002 992 23 +2.37 BOV1 Soybean Oil Oct 2001 15.78 0.35 +2.27 XRN1 Soybean Oil Jul 2001 15.34 0.30 +2.00 PBQ1 Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 2001 80.425 1.575 +2.00 NGK3 Henry Hub Natural Gas May 2003 3.660 0.071 +1.96 LOSERS BDU1 Oriented Strand Board Sep 2001 217.00 -5.00 -2.42 HUZ1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Dec 20 0.7635 -0.0183 -2.38 PLN1 Platinum Jul 2001 588.8 -14.1 -2.34 CLN1 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jul 2001 27.93 -0.50 -1.76 XEN1 Soybean Meal Jul 2001 163.6 -2.8 -1.69 RRH2 Rough Rice Mar 2002 5.940 -0.100 -1.66 HON1 Heating Oil Jul 2001 0.7592 -0.0126 -1.63 DAQ1 BFP Milk Aug 2001 15.46 -0.20 -1.28 SMN1 Soybean Meal Jul 2001 163.6 -2.1 -1.27 PNZ1 Propane Dec 2001 0.5150 -0.0065 -1.25 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS CN CALTON,INC(NEW) 5.94 1.13 +23.49 PDC SOUTH TEXAS DRILLING & EXPL 6.30 1.10 +21.15 AGIX ATHEROGENICS 6.32 0.97 +18.30 SPLX SIMPLEX SOLUTIONS 28.00 4.34 +18.24 HLIT HARMONIC INC 10.01 1.49 +17.43 OS OREGON STEEL MILLS 8.45 1.25 +17.34 XTND EXTENDED SYSTEMS 7.86 1.10 +16.30 QRSI QRS CORP 13.53 1.69 +14.81 CMNT COMPUTER NETWORK TECHNOLOGY 10.21 1.30 +14.67 PSSI PSS WORLD MEDICAL 5.90 0.75 +14.62 LOSERS IDT IDT CORP 14.65 -11.48 -43.93 EMEX EMEX CORP 11.67 -3.12 -21.02 USG USG CORP 6.69 -1.67 -19.98 KPN ROYAL PTT NEDERLAND ADS 7.99 -1.30 -14.01 ROAD ROADWAY CORP 22.45 -3.61 -13.79 PROX PROXIM INC 12.75 -1.80 -12.59 ARTL ARISTOTLE CORP 8.96 -1.10 -12.57 CHH CHOICE HOTELS INTL 11.90 -1.70 -12.41 CLPT CELLPOINT INC 6.01 -0.79 -11.57 OCCF OPTICAL CABLE 9.91 -1.21 -10.99 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ $$$$ Foreign Exchange Traders! INO.com now has $$$$ real-time cross rates, FREE online at: $$$$ http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/forex-cross/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@ect.enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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