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M O N D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index has retreated 0.37 points to 210.34. The US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.27 points to 119.16. The Dow Industrials moved up 71.11 points, at 11061.52, while the S&P 500 moved higher by 6.44 points, last seen at 1267.11. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 6.49 points to 2155.93. $$$ FREE OPTIONS INVESTORS KIT $$$ http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/ _____________________________________________________________________ HOW TO MAKE A FORTUNE WHEN A MARKET EXPLODES! _____________________________________________________________________ http://store.ino.com/sale/1DC1C/FMB2102-TRBsystem Andrew: Were you Long when Heating Oil sky rocketed? Did you short the grains as markets collapsed? Master Market Pro Glen Ring did - and in this exciting new course, he'll teach you to do the same! Every year the markets post some incredible moves. It doesn't happen every day. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES closed higher on Monday as they extended last Friday's short covering rallies. Light support came from biotech stocks however trading was rather light. Session highs in the September S&P 500 index fell short of filling last Wednesday's gap at 1278.50 as the rebound off last week's low still appears corrective in nature. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq did fill last week's gap but closed below the opening range leaving the door open for a possible setback on Tuesday. Momentum indicators remain bearish hinting that additional weakness near-term is possible. If the declines resume, May's reaction lows are potential targets. The Dow managed to close higher on Monday led by gains in oil stock thereby confirming last Friday's key reversal up. If the Dow can post a higher weekly close it could set the stage for a resumption of this spring's rally later this month. INTEREST RATES September bonds extended last week's breakout above this spring's downtrend line crossing near 100-26, which confirmed that a bottom has been posted. Much of today's strength was due to comments made by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Sunday night that he sees few signs of inflationary pressure. Downward pressure in the fed fund futures indicates that there is nearly a 100% chance that the Federal Reserve Board will raise interest rates by 25- basis points at the June 26-27 meeting. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices into early-June are possible. If the rally continues, May's high crossing at 102-22 is September's next target. The CRB INDEX posted a potential downside reversal on Monday due to weakness in grains, meats, precious metals, fiber and crude oil products. Additional weakness on Tuesday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern. The rebound off last week's low that spiked below April's low was to be expected due to light short covering. Closes below last week's low crossing at 208.43 would confirm a downside breakout of this spring's trading range thereby renewing its decline off January's high. ENERGY MARKETS were mostly lower on Monday despite the fact that Iraq made good on its threat to cut oil exports unless it receives a six-month extension of the oil-for-food deal. The late-session sell off was triggered by questions over Iraq's resolve to halt crude oil exports for any significant length of time. July crude oil closed higher on Monday but near session lows as early strength faded into the close. If the decline off May's high continues, the 50% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 27.51 is July's next target. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. July heating oil posted a downside reversal on Monday and closed below the 38% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 75.66. Closes below last week's low of 75.10 would renew the decline off May's high and set the stage for a test of May's reaction low crossing at 74.55, which coincides with the 50% retracement level of this spring's rally. July unleaded gas posted a huge key reversal down on Monday despite news that Iraq has halted crude oil exports. However, today's action indicates that traders do not believe that the crude oil embargo by Iraq will have long- lasting effects on the market. In recent weeks-unleaded gasoline supplies have risen enough to temper concerns over summer gasoline supplies. Additional weakness on Tuesday along with a close below 90.30 would renew July's decline off May's high thereby opening the door for a possible test of April's gap crossing at 87.25 later this month. July Henry Hub natural gas closed higher on Monday due weather forecasts, which are calling for above normal temps across Texas this week along with revised predictions for warmer weather in July and August. Additional support came from indications that industrial demand is on the rise following this spring's decline. Momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a short covering bounce is possible during the first half of June. CURRENCIES The September Dollar managed to close higher on Monday after early weakness failed to fill last week's gap at 118.62. Additional strength on Tuesday would set the stage for a possible test of weekly resistance that crosses at 121.58 later this month. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional weakness is possible. The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Monday hinting that the corrective bounce off last week's low might be ending. The recent breakout below support crossing at .5643 has opened the door for a test of weekly support crossing at .5508 later this month. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) remains in a bearish trend mode. The September Canadian Dollar posted a quiet inside day with a lower close due to light profit taking on Monday. September remains poised to test trading range resistance crossing at .6541. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm a breakout and renew the rally off April's low. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices during the first half of June are possible. The September Japanese Yen was lower on Monday due to light profit taking. However, it remains above trading range resistance crossing at .8425 thereby leaving the door open for additional gains near-term. If the rally continues, gap resistance crossing at .8625 is September's next target. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. PRECIOUS METALS August gold closed lower on Monday as it is poised to renew its decline off May's high. Last week's trendline breakout has opened the door for additional weakness near-term with the reaction low crossing at 263.20 being the next likely target. Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. July silver resumed its decline on Monday and is poised to test May's low at 4.315 later this week. Multiple closes below this support level would confirm a breakout and open the door for a likely test of weekly support crossing at 4.15 later this month. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is likely. July copper closed steady on Monday following a spike below May's low at 74.75 earlier in the session. A short covering bounce ahead of the close erased early session lows leaving the door open for additional short covering on Tuesday. Multiple closes below today's low would confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range while opening the door for a test of weekly support crossing at 74.10 later this month. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term are possible. GRAINS July corn posted an inside day with a lower close. Weakness was tied to forecast that call for warmer and dryer weather conditions across the Midwest later this week. Additional pressure came from spillover selling from wheat and today's disappointing export inspection report that came in at 17.595 verses 32.383 million bushels. However, losses were limited due to expectations for a decline in this afternoon's crop conditions report due to the cool/wet weather, which continues to dominate Midwest weather. The latest condition report shows that 7% is rated poor/very poor, 29% is fair, and 64% is rated good/excellent. This is a decline from last week's levels and should provide light support in overnight trade and possibly on Tuesday. Last week's breakout above May's downtrend line signals that a short-term bottom has been posted. If the rebound continues, May's high at 2.11 1/2 is July's next upside target. July wheat plunged lower on Monday filling last Friday's gap and erasing over half of last week's gains due to improving weather conditions across the Plains. Warmer and drier conditions are expected to speed up the winter wheat harvest while rain is forecasted for Montana and western Canada, which have been dry. Moisture is also forecasted for dry parts of China this week. Today's sell off took much of the wind out of the bulls sails as the market has been unable to clear May's downtrend line, which is needed to confirm that a short-term bottom is in place. This afternoon's crop condition report showed that 25% is rated poor/very poor, 36% is fair, and 39% is rated good/excellent. This is a decline from last week's level and could lead to a short covering bounce on Tuesday. SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans closed lower on Monday however, a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses. Session lows spiked below broken trading range resistance as the market rechecked the recent breakout. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices during the first half of June is still possible. If the rally continues, March's high crossing at 4.77 3/4 is July's next target. This afternoon's planting progress report showed that 80% of the soybean crop has been planted compared with the five-year average of 75%. The condition report showed that 10% is rated poor/very poor, 34% is rated fair, and 56% is rated good/excellent. I am look for July to trade steady to higher on Tuesday. July soybean meal posted an upside reversal on Monday as the market continues to consolidate in a relatively narrow trading range. Closes above 168 or below 159.60 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Strong domestic and export demand continues to offset bearish weather forecast for the Midwest and portions of China. LIVESTOCK August hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of last week's gains. Nevertheless, the door remains open for a test of April's high crossing at 65.95 later this month. Much of today's pressure was due to spillover selling from the limit-down close in bellies. Losses were limited due to the steady to 75-cent higher cash bids. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices into early-June are possible. August cattle closed lower on Monday on ideas that cash and boxed beef markets may be topping. The relatively low volume of cash sales last week indicates that there might be a larger showlist this week. Momentum indicators are bullish but have become overbought warning traders to use caution as a top may be near. While the door is still open for a possible test of this year's high crossing at 75.00, additional weakness on Tuesday could trigger a round of long-liquidation. FOOD & FIBER July coffee closed higher on Monday as it posted a key reversal up due to short covering. Today's rally was triggered by talk of possible cold weather moving into Brazil's coffee growing regions later this week. Additional support came from the latest commitments of trader's report, which showed that funds had significantly reduced their long positions. Additional strength on Tuesday is needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's breakout below trading range support crossing at 955. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level at 862 is July's next target. July sugar closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's short covering bounce off the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 857. While another day or two of consolidation is possible, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If the decline continues, fib support crossing at 832 then 808 are targets. July cotton posted a key reversal down on Monday but remains above psychological support crossing at 40-cents. Early support came from news of increasing crop losses across west Texas cotton due to flooding. However, early strength failed to trigger follow-through buying, which triggered a technical sell off into the close. Additional weakness on Tuesday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern, which could lead to a resumption of this spring's decline later this month. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei up 0.4% in directionless quiet trade http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25632 Add1: US Equities Review: Modestly higher in thin trade http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25630 UK Stocks Review: Strong oils, Marconi takeover talks boost FTSE http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25638 FOREX US FX Review: Euro resumes losses as ECB intervention is nixed http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25634 Asia FX Review: EUR/JPY buying supports USD/JPY and EUR/USD http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25631 Europe FX Review: Euro hand back modest gains http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25633 CREDIT US Credit Review: Bond up after Greenspan's tame inflation view http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25629 Europe Credit Review: Mkt holiday limits reaction to Greenspan http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25635 Japan Credit Review: June near flat in slow, choppy trades http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25637 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Gasoline, juice, wheat dive; natural gas up http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25636 EXCHANGES Toronto Stock Exchange Fines Yorkton Securities http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24516 TGE Appoints New Executive Managing Director http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24515 NYBOT Announces Cotton Futures Delivery Specification Changes http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24514 Floor Broker Charged With Violating 1999 CFTC Order http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24513 CBOT's May Trading Volume Rises 18.6% From April http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24512 LIFFE Year-To-Date Value Up 52% http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24511 Philadelphia Sets Options And Sectors Index Records http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24510 Nasdaq Europe's Trading System Starting June 8 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24509 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS NGN1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jul 2001 4.069 0.150 +3.82 LBF2 Random Length Lumber Jan 2002 313.00 10.00 +3.30 KCN1 Coffee 'C' Jul 2001 59.45 1.65 +2.85 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 2 15/32 +2.44 DAV1 BFP Milk Oct 2001 14.75 0.35 +2.43 RRN1 Rough Rice Jul 2001 5.920 0.140 +2.42 HOX2 Heating Oil Nov 2002 0.7038 0.0161 +2.29 SBH3 Sugar #11 World Mar 2003 7.51 0.15 +2.02 HUK2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline May 20 0.8256 0.0150 +1.81 SIF2 Silver Jan 2002 4.424 0.070 +1.55 LOSERS PBN1 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2001 79.175 -3.000 -3.65 OJN1 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jul 2001 77.90 -2.20 -2.74 WN1 Wheat Jul 2001 263 1/2 -7 1/4 -2.68 XWN1 Wheat Jul 2001 263 1/2 -7 1/4 -2.68 KWN1 Wheat Jul 2001 319 3/4 -8 1/2 -2.59 HUN1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jul 20 0.9077 -0.0240 -2.57 AGM1 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2001 4.300 -0.100 -2.27 BON1 Soybean Oil Jul 2001 15.00 -0.34 -2.22 XRN1 Soybean Oil Jul 2001 15.00 -0.34 -2.22 ON1 Oats Jul 2001 112 3/4 -2 1/2 -2.17 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS SUND SOUND ADVICE 24.20 9.15 +61.00 SPLX SIMPLEX SOLUTIONS 38.20 10.31 +36.82 BPLS BANK PLUS CORP 6.92 1.60 +30.19 MDRX ALLSCRIPTS HLTHCARE SOLUTIONS 6.98 1.60 +29.96 INGN INTROGEN THERAPEUTICS 7.05 1.64 +29.23 VIXL VIXEL CORP 5.10 1.03 +25.69 JCC JILIN CHEMICAL IND ADS 14.25 2.86 +25.31 GNTA GENTA INC 12.50 2.12 +20.52 HITK HI-TECH PHARMACAL 9.25 1.52 +19.02 NEXM NEXMED INC 6.05 0.95 +18.27 LOSERS CERT CERTICOM CORP 5.64 -4.21 -42.74 CMM-B CRIIMI MAE 10.875% CV PFD 15.70 -5.45 -25.77 USG USG CORP 5.03 -1.66 -24.81 EMEX EMEX CORP 9.15 -2.75 -23.56 TESTR TESTR 9.87 -2.13 -17.75 NANX NANOPHASE TECHNOLOGIES 9.75 -1.97 -16.68 CATT CATAPULT COMMUNICATIONS 29.60 -5.55 -15.59 EXPO EXPONENT INC 10.25 -1.84 -15.35 EMKR EMCORE CORP 28.38 -5.06 -15.04 MCHM MACROCHEM CORP 9.02 -1.35 -12.99 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ $$$$ Foreign Exchange Traders! INO.com now has $$$$ real-time cross rates, FREE online at: $$$$ http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/forex-cross/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@ect.enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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