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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST M O N D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index is down 0.21 points to 189.30. The US Dollar Index fell 0.93 points to 118.86. The Dow Industrials softened 220.10 points, at 9687.09, while the S&P 500 fell 27.78 points, last seen at 1094.44. 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We found 89 straight wins worth $408,949.66 in profits! 9 Pages of FREE Information Available Now At: http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWSP-Uncanny <a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWSP-Uncanny"<Uncanny Option Profits!</a< Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed sharply lower on Monday as mounting worries over accounting irregularities triggered today's sell off. A crisis appears to be emerging as to how corporate America accounts for its financial transactions, which has seriously eroded investors confidence in equity investing. The NASDAQ posted a new low close for the year and is poised to test the 38% retracement level of the September/January rally, which crosses at 1826.96. The NASDAQ closed down 55.71 points at 1855.53. The March S&P 500 index also closed sharply lower on Monday erasing all of last week's short covering gains and is poised to renew its decline off January's high. Closes below last week's low crossing at 1081.50 would open the door for a possible test of the late-October low crossing at 1060.60 later this month. March closed down 28.10 points at 1095.30. The Dow closed sharply lower on Monday erasing most of last week's short covering gains. The backlash from the Enron debacle continues to be felt by the market, as investors are becoming more skeptical about accounting practices of companies. Just a hint of impropriety in a companies accounting practice is enough to send that stock tumbling sharply lower. Today's sell off started in telecommunication stock as William Communications indicated that it might default on its debt payments. The Dow needs to close above last week's high at 9943.90 to confirm that last week's low marked an important bottom. Closes below 9529.40 would renew its decline off January's high, which could lead to a possible test of long-term fib support crossing at 9318.20 later this month. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed higher on Monday thereby confirming last Friday's upside reversal. Much of today's strength was due to a flight to quality move on the part of investors as equity markets were pummeled. Today's high fell just short of testing January's high crossing at 104-11. If this resistance level is cleared, January's high crossing at 105- 06 is a potential target later this month. Today's rally turned stochastics and a number of other short-term momentum indicators bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near-term. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed modestly lower on Monday due to weakness in hogs, silver, and energies. However, today's shallow setback leaves the CRB index in good position on Tuesday to extend its rebound off last week's low. Closes above the previous reaction high crossing at 190.29 would confirm a bottom while opening the door for a larger-degree rebound into mid-February. Short-term momentum indicators are turning bullish thereby increasing the odds that a bottom was posted last week. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Monday as it corrected its knee-jerk reaction to news that Kuwait has lost production of 600,000 barrels per day due to a fire on Friday. Additional pressure came from a bearish shift in the extended weather forecast for the U.S. The National Weather Service is now calling for above normal temps for much of the U.S. over the next two weeks, which will reduce the demand for heating oil and natural gas. With abundant supplies and expectations for a continuation of weak demand, look for sideways to lower prices in energies to continue near-term. March crude oil closed lower on Monday thereby signaling an end to the two-day short covering bounce off last Wednesday's low. I would not be surprised to see subdued trading on Tuesday as traders await this week's API inventory reports. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible during the first half of February. However, it is unlikely that March will breakout above the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 22.50 in the near future. March heating oil closed sharply lower on Monday as the bearish reaction to the oilfield explosion in Kuwait last week faded. Today's close below minor trading range resistance crossing at 54.30 leaves the door open for sideways to lower trading on Tuesday ahead of this week's API inventory reports. The upturn by stochastics and the RSI signals that sideways to higher prices are possible during the first half of February. March unleaded gas closed lower on Monday as the bullish reaction to last week's oil explosion in Kuwait faded. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible during the first half of February however, it is unlikely that January's high crossing at 64.35 will be exceeded before contract expiration. March Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Monday due in part to a bearish shift in the extended weather forecast for much of the nation over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, last week's trendline breakout strongly suggested that a short-term bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday and below initial trendline support drawn across January's lows, which crosses near 119.50. While today's low-range close leaves the door open for a steady to weaker opening in access trading, I would not be surprised to see a higher close on Tuesday due to short covering as March might try to consolidate some of its recent losses. Stochastics and the RSI are very overbought and turning bearish hinting that a top is in or near. Closes below the previous reaction low crossing at 117.85 would confirm that a top has been posted. The March Swiss Franc closed higher Monday due to short covering. Closes above last week's high crossing at .5898 would confirm that a double bottom with December's low was posted last week while opening the door for a short covering rebound during the first half of February. Today's rebound turned the daily ADX neutral from its bearish mode hinting that a low is in or near. Additional strength this week would confirm a downturn by the ADX and that a double bottom has been posted. The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday and in doing so turned a number of short-term momentum indicators neutral to bearish. March's inability to sustain last week's breakout above January's high of .6300 is short-term bearish although I would not be surprised to see a corrective bounce on Tuesday on ideas that today's sell off was somewhat overdone. The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday and above last fall's downtrend line crossing near .7550 and broken support at .7558. Multiple closes above these key price levels are needed to confirm today's upside breakout, which would then open the door for a larger-degree rebound during at least the first half of February. Initial fib resistance begins at .7648. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals April gold closed sharply higher on Monday and above January's double top crossing at 290.50 to renew its rally off December's low. If the rebound continues, the 75% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 291.60 is April's next target. If this resistance level is cleared, last September's high crossing at 297.50 is a potential target for April later this month. Today's rally was triggered by weak equity market's that led to a flight to quality move on the part of some investors. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional strength is possible during the first half of February. March silver posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's short covering gains. Closes above broken support crossing at 4.32 are needed to signal that a short-term bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are oversold signaling that additional short covering is possible this week. If the decline off January's high resumes, December's low crossing at 4.21 is March's next target. March copper closed lower on Monday due to light profit taking. Early strength tested last Friday's high however, when a lack of follow-through buying failed to materialize near session highs, a sell off was triggered. March continues to consolidate around November's high crossing at 73.70, which marks key resistance. If last week's rally continues, weekly fib resistance crossing at 76.88 is March's next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but diverging warning bullish traders to use caution as a double top might be forming. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed higher on Monday due to short covering. March was mostly steady in early trading as the weekly export inspection report came in at 31.04 million bushels, which was at the low-end of expectations. Traders and analysts are still concerned that the USDA will be forced to cut its export projection of 1.975 billion bushels this year possibly as early as this Friday's supply/demand report. However, others indicate that export demand should begin to pickup in the coming weeks. The recent decline in the Dollar is helpful to corn exports however, the Dollar will need to trade below December's low at 115.11 to have a significant impact on export sales. Technically, March corn is holding above long-term support crossing at 2.04 1/4. Momentum indicators are oversold but have not confirmed a bottom has been posted. Closes above last summer's downtrend line crossing near 2.09 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. March wheat closed sharply lower on Monday and below minor support crossing at 2.83 to renew its decline off January's high. The door is open for a test of the December low crossing at 2.77 later this week. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that December's low is within reach of the market. Much of today's selling was due to fund selling of some 2,000 contracts due to a combination of slow export sales of soft red winter wheat, bearish seasonal trends and last week's beneficial moisture event. This morning's export inspection report came in at 14.960 million bushels, which was inline with expectations. Unless there is a marked decline in the strong U.S. Dollar to make U.S. wheat more competitive on the world market, wheat will remain under pressure as it searches for a price level that will trigger new foreign buying. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed sharply higher on Monday due to technical short covering, which confirmed last week's breakout above January's downtrend line. Today's close above last week's reaction high crossing at 4.32 tempers the near- term bearish outlook in the market. Today's rally was triggered by a combination of fresh news out of Washington regarding possible changes in the soybean loan rate, the bank holiday in Argentina and renewed dryness in Southern Brazil. However, I would not put too much stock in today's rally from a bullish standpoint, as it was mostly technical. Buy stops above last week's high helped to exaggerate today's rally, which appears to have been overdone thereby leaving the door open for a possible setback in turnaround Tuesday market action. It will take closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.39 1/2 to increase the odds that the February low has been posted. Today's rally did turn a number of short-term momentum indicators neutral to bullish hinting that last week's lows should not be taken out anytime soon. March soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday due to short covering triggered by spillover strength from soybeans. Additional support came from strong livestock prices and a return to more normal like winter weather conditions, which should support higher domestic demand if only for a few weeks. Closes above last week's high crossing at 153.50 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are still bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs spiked to a new contract high in early trading before profit taking led to a lower close on the day. Additional pressure came from mixed cash signals with calls for steady bids on Tuesday and apprehension ahead of the weekly pork belly storage movement report on Tuesday. Slaughter weights are light enough that producers can wait out packers for a brief period of time as they try to break cash bids in an attempt to shore up shrinking profit margins. Technically, this month's rally to new contract highs has set the stage for a likely test of the next level of long-term resistance crossing at 63.60 possibly later this week. Stochastics along with a number of other short- term momentum indicators are bullish hinting that we could see one more drive to new highs during the first half of February before a top is posted. April cattle closed higher on Monday but near session lows due to profit taking ahead of the close. Early strength led to a spike above the 75% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 76.00. If this resistance level is cleared, the bottom of last summer's trading range crossing at 77.10 is a potential target later this month. Momentum indicators are overbought and turning neutral warning bulls that time is no longer on their side. Closes below last Friday's reaction low crossing at 75.00 would open the door for additional profit taking and a likely test of last fall's uptrend line crossing near 74.00. Closes below this support level are needed before a major top can be confirmed. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed slightly higher on Monday but near session lows. Early support was due to spillover short covering following last Friday's upside reversal. However, March's inability to close above last week's high crossing at 45.85 along with today's low-range close leaves the door open for sideways to lower prices on Tuesday. Momentum indicators are very oversold hinting that a low might be in or near. However, closes above today's high crossing at 46.20 are needed before this is confirmed. March cocoa closed sharply higher on Monday due to the exercise of March options and a combination of speculative and trade short covering. At the same time, there were no new developments in the current supply/demand situation, which leaves the market vulnerable to a setback on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible into mid-February. If the rebound continues, January's high crossing at 1422 is March's next target. Closes above this resistance level would confirm an upside breakout of this winter's trading range thereby renewing its rally off last summer's low. March sugar posted an outside day down with a lower close on Monday, as it is poised to test last October's low crossing at 611 possibly later this week. Much of today's selling pressure was fund related as they added to their net short positions. Additional pressure was due to the markets focus on the expected huge Brazilian cane crop, which begins harvest in May. Momentum indicators have entered their respective oversold zones but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. March cotton closed higher on Monday as it extended last Friday's short covering gains. Additional support was due to improving world cotton prices and expectations for a rebound in the U.S. economy during the first half of this year. However, March cotton will remain range bound until reduced planted acreage is confirmed and further signals of global economic recovery surface. A sell off late in the day tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for a possible setback on Tuesday. Closes above January's high crossing at 38.50 would open the door for a possible test of the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 39.80 later this winter. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ MidAm January Trading Volume 24,569 Contracts http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27771 Coffee 'C' Contract On NYBOT Sets Record Open Interest http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27770 CFTC Settles Case Against Chicago Firm And Managing Director http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27769 CFTC Issues Annual Guidance For Commodity Pool Operators http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27768 CBOT January Volume 9.1% Higher Than A Year Earlier http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27767 Record January Volume For LIFFE http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27766 Singapore Derivatives Volume Grows 5% In January http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27765 Hong Kong Market Continues To Attract Overseas Investors http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27764 Euronext Lisbon Joining Amsterdam, Brussels And Paris http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27763 European Electricity Trading Down In January http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27762 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS CCH2 Cocoa Mar 2002 1400 50 +3.70 SIZ3 Silver Dec 2003 4.383 0.102 +2.32 BOH2 Soybean Oil Mar 2002 15.47 0.31 +2.04 GIJ2 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Apr 2002 172.00 3.50 +2.02 LHJ2 Lean Hogs Apr 2002 61.900 1.250 +2.01 SN2 Soybeans Jul 2002 441 1/4 7 3/4 +1.78 XSH2 Soybeans Mar 2002 434 7 1/4 +1.70 PBN2 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2002 78.100 1.225 +1.57 SMN2 Soybean Meal Jul 2002 148 2.1 +1.44 OU2 Oats Sep 2002 143 1/2 2 +1.41 LOSERS DBK2 Butter May 2002 132.000 -4.000 -2.94 MVH2 Value Line Index. Mini Mar 2002 1198.00 -34.50 -2.80 HOK2 Heating Oil May 2002 0.5426 -0.0152 -2.74 SPZ2 S&P 500 Dec 2002 1133.20 -30.20 -2.67 NKM2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002 9705 -255 -2.63 YSH2 NYSE Small Composite Mar 2002 561.25 -14.35 -2.49 RY0 Russell 1000 Index Cash 578.26 -14.25 -2.41 VGY Value Line Index - Cash Geometric Feb 20 352.30 -8.59 -2.38 YJH2 Mini Dow Jones Industrial Mar 2002 9673 -234 -2.36 XWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 280 3/4 -6 3/4 -2.35 FREE: FUTURES INTRODUCTORY COURSE BOOKLET Learn To Analyze The Markets Like A Professional http://www.ino.com/specials/ira/academy.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS VSF VITA FOOD PRODUCTS 5.65 1.00 +20.62 STST SENSYTECH INC 8.0000 1.4300 +20.52 SM SULZER MEDICA ADS 6.61 1.05 +18.75 ELXS ELXSI CORP 8.8600 1.2500 +16.69 ILI INTERLOTT TECHNOLOGIES 5.00 0.55 +11.96 RMCI RIGHT MGMT CONSULTANTS 23.3100 2.3600 +11.27 TESTC TEST SECURITY 113.6700 12.2500 +10.73 FVE FIVE STAR QUALITY CARE INC 8.75 0.85 +10.43 FINL FINISH LINE 'A' 16.6180 1.5400 +10.23 HGMCY HARMONY GOLD MINING ADR 8.6000 0.7700 +9.75 LOSERS ELN ELAN CORP ADS 14.85 -15.10 -50.42 TPC TRITON PCS HOLDINGS INC CL A 10.20 -3.14 -23.35 PCSA AIRGATE PCS INC 14.0400 -3.8700 -21.32 DYII DYNACQ INTL 6.0700 -1.5300 -20.08 DIGL DIGITAL LIGHTWAVE 5.1600 -1.2500 -19.97 EUNI EUNIVERSE INC 5.4000 -1.1700 -17.54 AMRN AMARIN CORP PLC ADS 16.8000 -3.5000 -17.00 EXTR EXTREME NETWORKS 11.5600 -2.2800 -16.72 TYC TYCO INTERNATIONAL 29.90 -5.93 -16.64 CIEN CIENA CORP 10.1200 -1.9800 -16.50 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2002 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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