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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON <IMCEANOTES-+22INO+2Ecom+22+20+3Cevening+40ino+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com< X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@ect.enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Lewis, Andrew H.\Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: Lewis, Andrew H..pst T H U R S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index is lower 0.63 points to 209.13. The US Dollar Index trended lower by 0.27 points to 119.09. The Dow Industrials edged higher by 20.50 points, at 11090.74, while the S&P 500 rose 6.93 points, last seen at 1276.96. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES closed higher on Thursday lead by gains in chip stocks, which jumped almost 7% on mixed news and ahead of Intel's business update due after the close. The Nasdaq posted a new high close for the week following Wednesday's setback due to light profit taking. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term are possible. If the rally in both stock indexes continues, May's highs are the next targets later this month. The Dow managed to post a modest gain due to a late-session recovery. Early weakness was tied to losses in tobacco and financial issues after Philip Morris lost over 5% after a California jury ruled Wednesday the company must pay a longtime smoker more than $3 billion. However, strength in networking, hardware and software issues pulled the Dow higher ahead of the close. Closes above 11,350 or below 10,835.40 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the Dow. Until then, look for two-sided trading to continue. INTEREST RATES September bonds posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to profit taking. Today's sell off was triggered by the latest jobless claims report, which showed continued weakness in the labor markets. Session highs fell short of testing the 38% retracement level of this spring's decline crossing at 101-15. Additional weakness on Friday would confirm today's bearish reversal pattern thereby increasing the odds that the corrective rally off May's low might have come to an end. The CRB INDEX closed lower for the fourth day in a row due to weakness in some energy markets, some precious metals, foods and cattle. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. Closes below 208.43 would confirm a trading range breakout thereby opening the door for a larger-degree decline during June. ENERGY MARKETS closed mixed on Thursday. A slowdown in crude oil deliveries to the U.S. Gulf refining sector and a number of refinery snags and short covering after the recent declines. July crude oil posted an inside day leaving Wednesday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Momentum indicators are bearish but becoming oversold hinting that Wednesday's low might have also marked a broad double bottom with April's low crossing at 27.25. If the decline off May's high continues, a test of April's low crossing at 25.90 is possible later this month. It will take closes above 29.05 to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. July heating oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday due to continued fallout from this week's bearish inventory reports. Closes below this week's low, which coincides with the 38% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 75.66 would open the door for additional weakness during June. Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. July unleaded gas posted an inside day with a higher close due to light short covering following Wednesday's trendline breakout and test of the 50% retracement level crossing at 88.93. I would not be surprised to see additional short covering and a possible test of broken trendline support on Friday. If the decline continues the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 85.62 is July's next target. Momentum indicators are bearish but becoming oversold warning bears that a corrective bounce is possible. July Henry Hub natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday due to continued fallout from this week's bearish AGA inventory report. Momentum indicators have turned bearish with this week's decline, as the stage is set for sideways to lower prices into the end of June due to seasonal weakness. Closes below May's low would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 3.54 later this summer. CURRENCIES The September Dollar posted an inside day due to light profit taking thereby leaving Wednesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The door remains open for a test of weekly resistance crossing at 121.50 later this month. It would take closes below May's uptrend line crossing near 118.62, which coincides with gap support to signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is possible. The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday confirming yesterday's key reversal down. However, closes below last week's low at .5564 are needed to renew this spring's decline thereby setting the stage for a test of weekly support crossing at .5508 later this month. The daily ADX is still in a bearish trend mode signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday testing the 62% retracement level of this winter's decline crossing at .6573. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Momentum indicators are bullish but becoming overbought warning bulls to use caution as a short- term top might be near. If the rally continues, gap resistance beginning at .6600 is the next target. The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's losses. Momentum indicators have turned bearish from overbought levels thereby increasing the odds that a short- term may have been posted with last week's high. PRECIOUS METALS August gold posted an inside day with a slightly higher on Thursday as it continues to consolidate around the 75% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 267.20. Closes above 269.60 or below 265.50 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. If the decline resumes, the reaction low crossing at 263.20 is August's next target. Weekly momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness during June appears likely. July silver closed slightly lower on Thursday but remains above trading range support crossing at 4.31 cents. Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below 4.31 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 4.15 later this month. July copper closed lower on Thursday thereby confirming yesterday's downside reversal. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 74.55 would renew the decline off May's high and open the door for a test of weekly support crossing at 74.10 later this month. Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. GRAINS July corn closed unchanged on Thursday. Early strength was tied to another week of strong export sales and weather concerns both in China and the Midwest. However, profit taking ahead of the close erased early gains as floor sources indicated that traders are reluctant to buy heavily into a cool/wet weather related rally this early in the season. Closes above minor resistance at $2.00 is needed to open the door for a possible test of May's high at 2.11 1/2 later this month. July wheat closed higher on Thursday following another week of strong new-crop export sales. Additional support came from wet weather across portions of the plains, which has slowed harvest progress, especially for the soft red winter wheat crop, and is starting to endanger quality. Wednesday's test and rebound off contract lows at 2.58 1/2 has left the market at an important crossroads. Closes above 2.72 or below 2.58 1/2 is needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics are giving a divergent buy signal with today's rebound hinting that a double bottom may have been posted with this week's low. SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans closed unchanged due to a round of profit taking ahead of the close. Early strength was tied to uncertainties over weather forecast as cool/wet conditions across the Midwest continues to hamper early crop development and allow farmers to complete this year's soybean planting. While recent highs have opened the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at 4.77 1/2, today's poor performance also denotes that the undertone of the market remains rather weak. July soybean meal posted a downside reversal on Thursday following a spike above the 62% retracement level crossing at 169.40. Additional weakness on Friday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern. Momentum indicators are bullish but also showing bearish divergence warning bulls to use caution despite this week's push to new contract highs. Closes below gap support crossing at 164.80 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. LIVESTOCK August hogs closed modestly higher on Thursday due to improving cutout values and spillover strength from bellies. Light fund and cash connected buying also underpinned today's rally. Today also marked the official start of the Goldman roll as they were selling July and buying August. If the rally resumes, April's high crossing at 65.95 is August's next target. Closes below last week's gap at 64.00 would strongly suggest that a short-term top has been posted. August cattle extended this week's decline closing lower for the fourth day in a row. However, a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses leading to a mid-range close. A short covering bounce on Friday is possible as traders bank some of this week's short profits. Momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling sideways to lower prices into mid-June are possible. FOOD & FIBER July coffee closed lower on Thursday due to bearish short-term weather forecasts for Brazil's coffee growing region. July remains poised to test the late-May low crossing at 57.10. Closes below this support level would renew this year's decline. However, momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a short-term low is in place or near. Closes above 60.80 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. July cocoa closed into new lows for the week thereby confirming the recent breakout below this spring's trading range, which crosses at 955. Today's new low close for the month has renewed the decline off May's high while setting the stage for a test of fib support crossing at 862 later this month. July sugar closed lower on Thursday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal down. Today's loss was enough to keep momentum indicators bearish, as the stage is set for a possible test of last week's low at 839. Closes below this support level would renew the decline off May's high and open the door for a test of fib support crossing at 832 then 808 later this month. July cotton closed lower on Thursday as it continues to consolidate above psychological support crossing at 40- cents. Closes above this year's downtrend line crossing near 43.95 are needed to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. Momentum indicators are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term are possible. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei up 0.8% on position adjustment moves http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25663 Add2: US Equities Review: Higher; chip stocks soar despite warnings http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25661 UK Stocks Review: FTSE up with a little help from Wall Street http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25669 FOREX US FX Review: Sterling trims losses ahead of UK elections http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25665 Asia FX Review: Dollar/yen hovers around 120.00 level http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25662 Europe FX Review: Sterling falls again ahead of poll results http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25664 CREDIT US Credit Review: Profit-taking drives down most Treasuries http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25660 Europe Credit Review: Debt prices fall at open, never recover http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25666 Japan Credit Review: June ends slightly up in range-bound trades http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25668 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Cocoa at almost 5-month low http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25667 EXCHANGES OIC Reports May Equity Interest Hits New High http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24535 NYBOT Announces Start Of Block Trading http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24534 KFX Announces May Trading Volume Increases http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24533 NYMEX Opts For Position Accountability Requirements http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24532 Fast Start For INO.com's 'extreme SIGNALS' Futures Service http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24531 CBOT Moves Forward With a/c/e/ Software Enhancements http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24530 NASD Regulation Settles Five Day-Trading Actions http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24529 Jiway Adds Another Country, Broadens Stock Coverage http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24528 CME Revises Rules For Block Trading Of Eurodollars http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24527 El Paso And WestLB Join European Energy Exchange http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24526 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS NDM1 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2001 1959.00 51.00 +2.67 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 2 5/8 +2.60 HUF2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jan 20 0.7526 0.0124 +1.64 NKU1 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Sep 2001 13320 210 +1.60 WZ2 Wheat Dec 2002 333 5 +1.52 ZXM1 New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar Jun 2001 0.4184 0.0059 +1.43 XRN1 Soybean Oil Jul 2001 15.13 0.20 +1.34 KWU1 Wheat Sep 2001 326 3/4 4 1/4 +1.32 XSU1 Soybeans Sep 2001 447 1/4 5 3/4 +1.30 XWU1 Wheat Sep 2001 275 3 1/2 +1.29 LOSERS CCZ1 Cocoa Dec 2001 915 -43 -4.49 PNN1 Propane Jul 2001 0.4600 -0.0200 -4.17 SBK2 Sugar #11 World May 2002 7.85 -0.13 -1.65 DAQ1 BFP Milk Aug 2001 15.32 -0.23 -1.48 KCZ1 Coffee 'C' Dec 2001 64.50 -0.85 -1.30 SEN1 Sugar #14 Domestic Jul 2001 20.83 -0.27 -1.28 NTM1 Nikkei 300 Jun 2001 261.6 -2.5 -0.96 PAU1 Palladium Sep 2001 619.25 -6.00 -0.96 OJX2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Nov 2002 98.40 -0.90 -0.91 TWM1 MSCI Taiwan Index Jun 2001 238.1 -2.1 -0.88 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS STEM STEMCELLS INC 5.41 2.13 +64.94 CANI CARREKER CORP 15.04 3.85 +34.22 OVTI OMNIVISION TECHNOLOGIES 5.50 1.15 +27.32 HDIIU HYPERTENS'N DIAGNOSTIC UNIT 7.60 1.60 +26.67 HABKE HAMILTON BANCORP 8.08 1.55 +24.22 CCBL C-COR.NET CORP 13.45 2.33 +21.86 SONE S1 CORP 13.76 2.29 +19.91 CTRA CENTRA SOFTWARE 15.75 2.50 +18.88 SALM SALEM COMMUNICATIONS CORP CL A 26.19 4.11 +18.45 CCEL CRYO-CELL INTL 5.94 0.89 +17.62 LOSERS ORPH ORPHAN MEDICAL INC 11.25 -3.92 -26.13 CVTI COVENANT TRANSPORT 'A' 13.00 -3.56 -21.51 ALXN ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS 24.12 -3.90 -13.98 GPI GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE 22.29 -3.49 -13.42 ELY CALLAWAY GOLF CO (DEL) 18.46 -2.76 -12.98 VRST VERISITY LTD 16.06 -2.35 -12.74 EMEX EMEX CORP 8.38 -1.20 -12.53 MRVT MIRAVANT MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES 11.46 -1.53 -12.32 NOPT NEON COMM INC 5.42 -0.71 -11.54 BMM BMC INDUSTRIES 5.18 -0.65 -11.11 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ $$$$ Foreign Exchange Traders! INO.com now has $$$$ real-time cross rates, FREE online at: $$$$ http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/forex-cross/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@ect.enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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