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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST T H U R S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index has eased 2.41 points to 191.91. The US Dollar Index moved up 0.36 points to 117.95. The Dow Industrials edged higher by 137.77 points, at 9850.04, while the S&P 500 edged higher by 11.31 points, last seen at 1138.88. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 41.38 points to 1985.82. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE BOOK-"Trading Tactics Of The Pro's" Written By A Legendary Trader http://www.ino.com/specials/manfin/tactics.html _____________________________________________________________________ JUST IN - ALL NEW FOR 2002 - FROM GEORGE ANGELL ! ! ! 'SNIPER TRADING: Essential Short-Term Money-Making Secrets' Only $39.95 when you order today! Free audio-tape bonus with every order! Click Here - http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/W047139422-Sniper <b<<a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/W047139422-Sniper"<Sniper Trading Book!</a<</b< _____________________________________________________________________ THE KEY TO TOMORROW'S MARKET PRICES ... 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In general, you should have 11 wins for every 2 losses . . . $12,200 profit for every $1,000 lost...and an average profit of over $500! 14 Pages of Information is Available Now at: http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWKPN-Keypoint <b<<a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWKPN-Keypoint"<TOMORROW'S PRICES TODAY!</a<</b< Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed higher on Thursday in response to today's better-than-expected economic news and earnings reports. The NASDAQ closed up 41.38 points at 1985.82. The March S&P 500 index also closed higher on Thursday up 12.30 points at 1138.20. The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday following the release of better than expected economic data this morning. Improved earnings reports and today's better-than-expected Philadelphia Manufacturing Sector report that rebounded sharply in January bolstered investor sentiment. The solid earnings reports out of Apple, Compaq and IBM led the Dow higher following Wednesday's test of key support crossing at 9706.20. A higher close on Friday would begin the temper the near-term bearish outlook in the Dow as momentum indicators are showing signs of bottoming out. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Thursday pressured by firmer-than-expected economic data, which combined with recent comments by the Fed has left the market uncertain about whether or not another cut in interest rates is coming later this month. March bonds closed below January's uptrend line crossing near 103-26. Today's close below Monday's low of 103-29 has opened the door for additional weakness in access trading. Momentum indicators had been warning traders that a short-term top was near due to their overbought condition. Additional weakness on Friday would turn these indicators bearish thereby signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the latter part of January. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby ending the two-day bounce off Tuesday's low. The CRB is poised to test last fall's downtrend line crossing near 191.20 possibly on Friday. Closes below this support level would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Today's sell off was triggered by weakness in grains, cattle, precious metals, foods and energies. Momentum indicators have turned bearish with this week's sell off and signal that additional weakness is possible during the last half of January. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby ending this week's two-day short covering bounce. Rising inventories along with uncertainty over a recovery in the world economy appears to have caught up with the markets. Funds were noted sellers today, which pressured the entire complex. Without an increase in demand, recent cuts by OPEC appear mute leaving the door open for additional weakness in the coming weeks. March crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby confirming this week's breakout below last fall's uptrend line. Session lows fell short of testing December's reaction low crossing at 18.45. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. I would not be surprised to see March crude test November's low at 17.55 before buying returns to the market. March heating oil posted a key reversal down on Thursday with session lows spiking below last fall's low at 51.30. Additional weakness on Friday with closes below this support level would confirm today's bearish reversal pattern and could lead to a breakout of the fall/winter trading range. If a breakout occurs, weekly support crossing at 49.30 is March's next target. This week's inventory reports continue to show poor demand when it should be strong. This does not bode well for higher prices anytime soon. March unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Thursday and below last fall's uptrend line crossing 54.85. Today's breakout below this uptrend line opened the door for a test of December's low crossing at 53.00 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the last half of January. Seasonally, gasoline demand will continue to decline into late March, which has been evident by soaring gasoline inventories in the U.S. over the past few weeks. This would indicate that March futures will eventually test if not exceed last fall's lows later this winter. February Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Thursday and fell back into this month's trading range due to spillover selling pressure from crude and its products. Additional pressure came from the extended forecast, which is calling for normal to above normal temps across high demand regions of the country. Today's sell off has opened the door for a resumption of this month's trading range as the market consolidates above weekly support crossing at 2.17. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed higher for the third day in a row on Thursday and is poised to test December's high crossing at 118.85 later this month. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a possible round of profit taking on Friday. However, stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. The March Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a lower close as it continues to consolidate above last fall's trading range support crossing at .5973. Multiple closes below this support level or above neckline resistance crossing near .6067 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the latter part of January. The March Canadian Dollar plunged to new contract lows on Thursday however, a short covering rally ahead of the close tempered today's losses. The mid-range close leaves the door open for a likely inside day on Friday as March will likely consolidate some today's loss. Momentum indicators will turn bearish with additional weakness thereby signaling that additional weakness is possible during the last half of January. The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it has entered a trading range above long-term support crossing at .7558. Closes below this support level or above last Monday's high of .7696 are needed to confirm a range breakout and point the direction of the next likely trending move. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby erasing much of Wednesday's gains. Pressure from higher equity prices, further shrinkage in forward rates and concerns about stop loss selling triggered today's round of long-liquidation. Momentum indicators are overbought and turning bearish thereby increasing the odds that the rally off December's low is near a top. February's inability to sustain multiple closes above the 62% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 287.60 is another sign of technically related trouble in this market. Closes below Tuesday's low at 283 would increase the odds that a short- term top has been posted. March silver closed into new lows for the week on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 4.498. If the decline continues, fib support crossing at 4.412 then 4.327 cents are March's next likely targets. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. March copper closed slightly lower in lackluster trading on Thursday. Traders remain on the sidelines for the most part due to uncertainty over the direction of the world economy. Closes above 72.40 or below 69.50 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Momentum indicators are bullish but nearing their respective overbought zones hinting that time might be running out for bulls. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Thursday due to light profit taking triggered by the market's failure to sustain the gap higher opening. Early strength was tied to this morning's solid export sales report that showed net sales of 35.8 million bushels. Additional early strength came from continued weather related problems with southern Brazil's corn crop. However, prices quickly stalled following the gap higher opening, which triggered a sell off that filled the opening gap. Prices stabilized briefly but came under renewed selling ahead of the close as buying interest failed to materialize into the close. Despite today's lower close, March managed to hold above last year's downtrend line. However, closes above Monday's high at 2.15 1/4 are needed before this week's trendline breakout can be confirmed. From a broader perspective, weekly momentum indicators are diverging and have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices into spring are likely. March wheat posted a key reversal down on Thursday and closed below initial trendline support thereby signaling that a short-term top has been posted. However, today's mid- range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Today's weakness was triggered by a lackluster weekly export sales report that showed net sales of just 13.85 million bushels. This disappointing export sales figure was just not enough of a reason for the market to extend its rally off December's low despite bullish acreage fundamentals. Spillover pressure came from corn's poor performance along with news that wheat growing regions in China have received some moisture. Weather forecast are also calling for light moisture to fall across the U.S. Plains next week however, there is no damaging cold temps in the forecast. If March continues its decline off Monday's high, December's uptrend line crossing near 2.90 1/2 is its next likely target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the latter part of January. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed lower on Thursday despite a very strong export sales report. This morning's report showed net export sales of 42.6 million bushels, which led to early strength in the session. However, a lack of follow-through buying after the open along with profit taking in soybean meal triggered a sell off and lower close on the day, which left Wednesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The market's inability to rally of bullish news is an indication that a short-term top is in or near. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday with an outside chance for March to test November's high at 4.57 1/2. However, momentum indicators have become overbought warning traders that a round of long-liquidation to consolidate some of this month's gains is possible in the near future. March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday due to light profit taking following a higher opening triggered by today's supportive export sales report. The report showed net sales of 260,300 metric tonnes, which was above the previous week's level and underscores the strong foreign demand for U.S. meal. However, this morning's test of the 62% retracement level of the July/January decline, which crosses at 163 met with profit taking on ideas that Wednesday's rally triggered by rumors of fishmeal contamination in Europe were overdone. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. If the rally continues, the 75% retracement level crossing at 168 is March's next target. Momentum indicators have become overbought after rallying $21 off January's low leaving the market vulnerable to a round of long-liquidation as the market is in need of consolidating some of this month's gains. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed slightly higher on Thursday in subdued trading as the market awaits Friday's USDA cold storage report. Cash bids of 50-cents to $1.00 higher provided a firm undertone for the market. Packers are expected to push for supplies ahead of the weekend, which should support steady to higher cash bids on Friday. April hogs are consolidating around key weekly resistance crossing at 61.13. If the rally off last fall's low continues, weekly resistance crossing at 63.60 is April's next target. At the same time, momentum indicators are diverging, which is often a precursor to a top and trend change. Closes below the December-January uptrend line and Monday's low crossing at 60.15 are needed to confirm a top has likely been posted. April cattle closed lower on Thursday but near mid-range due to light fund selling on the close. Commercial buying provided underlying support for the market, which continues to look for higher cash bids to lift futures out of their current trading range. April's inability to sustain Tuesday's breakout above trading range resistance and the 62% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 74.34 indicates that the expected higher cash bids this week have likely been factored into prices. April remains at a crossroads and will need to close above Tuesday's high or below last fall's uptrend line crossing near 72.80 to clear up near-term direction in the market. Friday's monthly cattle on feed report might provide the market with the catalyst needed to clear up near-term direction. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed lower on Thursday for the third day in a row thereby confirming a breakout below January's uptrend line. Light fund selling weighed on prices however, a lack of producer hedging limited today's losses that led to a mid-range close. This leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Momentum indicators are beginning to turn bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. March cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday indicating that the short covering bounce off Tuesday's low has likely come to an end. However, March will need to close below this week's low at 1260 to confirm this week's trendline breakout, which would also open the door for a large-degree decline into the end of January. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness appears likely. March sugar gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday thereby confirming this week's breakout below December's uptrend line. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss leaving the door open for sideways trading on Friday. However, the door has been opened for a test of last fall's uptrend line crossing near 720 later this month. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. March cotton managed to close higher for the third day in a row on Thursday. Light support came from today's export sales report that showed net sales of 133,000 bales. The fact that March has been able to extend its rebound off Wednesday's low indicates that last week's bearish S&D report has been factored into prices. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible during the last half of January with November's high of 39.80 being a potential target later this month. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ OM Acquires Sweden's Most Advanced Data Center http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27717 CME Announces Swap Rate Futures Contracts http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27716 Unified Clearing Organization Planned In Japan http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27715 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS PNH2 Propane Mar 2002 0.2780 0.0090 +3.26 NDH2 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2002 1595.00 32.00 +2.05 XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 192 1/4 3 1/2 +1.84 MDH2 S&P Midcap 400 Mar 2002 502.00 7.85 +1.59 RLM2 Russell 2000 Index Jun 2002 482.75 6.60 +1.39 YJH2 Mini Dow Jones Industrial Mar 2002 9815 125 +1.29 NKM2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002 10245 130 +1.29 ERY0 FTSE Eurotop 100 Cash 2782.6 34.4 +1.25 DJM2 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Jun 2002 9813 121 +1.25 SPM3 S&P 500 Jun 2003 1146.20 14.00 +1.22 LOSERS NGG2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Feb 2002 2.254 -0.139 -5.81 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 7.48 -0.37 -4.71 CLG2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Feb 2002 17.97 -0.82 -4.35 GCF2 Gold Jan 2002 284.4 -11.3 -3.93 HUH2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Mar 20 0.5498 -0.0211 -3.69 HOJ2 Heating Oil Apr 2002 0.5200 -0.0186 -3.47 SIZ4 Silver Dec 2004 4.538 -0.128 -2.75 YIK2 Mini NY Silver May 2002 4.460 -0.120 -2.62 GIH2 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Mar 2002 168.00 -4.00 -2.33 RRH2 Rough Rice Mar 2002 3.785 -0.085 -2.20 FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS ONCO ON COMMAND 5.7500 1.6000 +34.78 ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 6.79 1.61 +30.84 NCNX NUCENTRIX BROADBAND NETWORKS 13.3500 2.9500 +28.23 CATZ COMPUTER ACCESS TECH 6.2000 1.3800 +27.60 HDTV SPATIALIGHT INC 5.2100 1.0500 +25.86 XTND EXTENDED SYSTEMS 7.6500 1.3500 +21.23 INVN INVISION TECHNOLOGIES 34.5600 5.5700 +19.34 IOMT ISOMET CORP 5.3200 0.8800 +19.05 MKT ADVANCED MARKETING SVCS INC 20.50 3.12 +17.59 MEDW MEDIWARE INFORMATION SYS 5.2500 0.7200 +16.82 LOSERS CBST CUBIST PHARMACEUTICALS 17.0200 -14.7400 -46.43 MCAF MCAFEE.COM CORP'A' 23.0800 -9.1900 -28.46 PROX PROXIM INC 6.7500 -2.0600 -23.62 NMTC NUMERICAL TECHNOLOGIES 18.8000 -5.7000 -23.00 DTHK DIGITALTHINK INC 7.2600 -2.1800 -22.43 IIVI II-VI INC 14.2500 -3.7200 -20.55 LABL MULTI-COLOR CORP 15.0000 -3.6000 -19.51 ENDP ENDO PHARMACEUTICALS HLDS INC 10.5600 -2.4000 -18.60 HCR MANOR CARE INC 19.26 -3.65 -15.92 SMTF SMARTFORCE PLC ADR 19.3000 -3.4500 -15.16 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2002 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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