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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST T H U R S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index is trending lower 0.29 points to 189.04. The US Dollar Index trended higher 0.11 points to 118.58. The Dow Industrials gained 65.11 points, at 9796.07, while the S&P 500 rose 3.97 points, last seen at 1132.15. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed higher on Thursday as investors were encouraged by favorable earnings reports from a number of high-tech companies. The NASDAQ gapped up on the open and closed higher on Thursday thereby increasing the odds that this week's spike of the 38% retracement level crossing at 1826.96 marked a short-term bottom. The NASDAQ closed up 20.20 points at 1942.58. The March S&P 500 index also closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the rally off September's low crossing at 1122.57. Multiple closes above last week's high at 1150 will be needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The March S&P 500 closed up 4.30 points at 1133.30. The Dow closed higher on Thursday as traders and investors celebrated Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's comments regarding signs of a recovery in the economy. Gains were tempered as Greenspan insisted that Wall Street is too aggressive in its expectations or time for such a recovery. Todays rebound hints that the Dow might be forming a bottom off key fib support crossing at 9706.20. Closes above minor resistance crossing at 9857.70 would help temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Short-term momentum indicators are oversold hinting that at a short-term low is in or near. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds posted an inside day with a slightly higher close due to technical short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's loss. However, the door has been opened for additional weakness and a likely test of December's uptrend line crossing near 100-26 later this month. Short- term momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Today's comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan signal that the recession has hit bottom and the economy should begin to show signs of recovery by the second quarter of this year. These comments also indicate that the Fed is unlikely to make an additional cut in interest rates when it meets later this month. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed lower on Thursday pressured by weakness in foods, fiber and natural gas. Losses were tempered by gains in crude oil and its products, some livestock markets and grains. The CRB is consolidating around the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 189.40. If this decline continues, the 62% retracement level crossing at 187.85 is the CRB's next target. Momentum indicators are becoming oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed higher on Thursday despite Wednesday's mildly bearish inventory report in crude oil and unleaded gas. Light technical support came from today's Dept. of Energy (DOE) inventory report. These reports showed a build in crude oil and unleaded gasoline and a drawn in distillates, which paralleled the API data. The fact that crude and its products rallied today indicates that all of the near-term bearish news has been factored into the markets at this time. March crude oil closed higher on Thursday and is challenging last fall's broken uptrend line crossing near 20.00. Closes above this broken support level are needed before a bottom is confirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning bullish with this week's rebound hinting that a low is in or near. March heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it continues to rebound off trading range support crossing at 51.20. Closes above last week's high crossing at 54.70 are needed to temper the bearish outlook in the market. The fact that March heating oil has been able to rally despite this week's bearish inventory reports underscores the fact that the bearish news has already been discounted in the market. Momentum indicators are oversold and turning neutral to bullish signaling that a triple bottom might be in or is near. March unleaded gas extended this week's rebound on Thursday having retraced over 38% of this month's decline since last week. Short-term momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that a low has been posted. From a broader perspective, March unleaded gas needs to close above 64.35 or below 51.90 to breakout of this winter's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. March Henry Hub natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of its recent losses. This week's breakout into new contract lows has set the stage for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1.76 later this winter. Momentum indicators are bearish but oversold hinting that a low may be near. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed above December's high crossing at 118.85 on Thursday confirming a breakout into new contract highs and Wednesday's key reversal up. If the rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 120.11 is March's next likely target. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI though bullish have entered their respective overbought zones hinting that a double top might be forming. Support begins at last Friday's low crossing at 117.85. The March Swiss Franc closed below last fall's trading range support at .5973 on Thursday. Closes below last week's low at .5961 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of January. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The March Canadian Dollar closed steady on Thursday hinting that this week's short covering bounce might be coming to an end. Nevertheless, this week's closes above broken support crossing at .6230 have tempered the near-term bearish outlook in the market. I would not be surprised to see a setback on Friday as March might try to consolidate some of this week's gains. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that a short-term bottom has likely been posted. The March Japanese Yen extended this week's breakout below weekly support crossing at .7558 and is poised to test the next level of long-term support crossing at .7371 in the near future. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely. I am looking for a short-term bottom to be posted by the middle of next week. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed lower on Thursday as it tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 278.70. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level of this winter's rally crossing at 276 is February's next target. March silver closed steady on Thursday as it continues to consolidate below the 62% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 4.327. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. The stage is set for additional weakness with the 75% retracement level crossing at 4.221 marking the next likely downside target later this month. March copper extended this week's short covering rally and closed above last week's high crossing at 71.40 to temper the bearish outlook in the market. The door is open for a test of this month's high crossing at 72.40. Closes above 72.40 are needed to renew this month's rally, which could lead to a test of November's high crossing at 73.70 later this winter. Momentum indicators have turned bullish with this week's rebound signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed higher due to technical short covering on Thursday as traders consolidated some of its losses over the past four trading sessions. However, the short covering rebound stalled out after testing broken support crossing at 2.10 1/4. Traders are taking a wait an see attitude towards the market until they see this week's export sales report, which is expected to show some improvement over recent weeks. My sources tell me that export demand should see a significant pickup in the coming weeks as end users are likely to become more active buyers to lock in current low prices after spending the past few months in a hand to mouth mode. News out of Southern Brazil regarding their corn crop is also friendly. Sources indicate that recent dryness is likely to cut into their production by 20.3% and is now projected to be 3.842 million metric tons down from 4.821 million metric tons earlier this winter. This is 36.9% below year ago levels. The corn market still has its work cut out for itself and will need to close above last week's high at 2.16 1/4 to confirm a major bottom and trend change has taken place. March wheat closed higher on Thursday thereby confirming yesterday's a key reversal up. While today's rebound hints that a minor low has been posted, momentum indicators remain bearish warning traders that March wheat still is vulnerable to additional weakness into early-February. Today's rally came on light volume as floor traders went searching for protective stops. However, the market will need to see a significant increase in export demand before a bottom can be confirmed. I am still looking for one more break to new lows for the month with the late-December reaction low crossing at 2.83 marking the next likely downside target. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans posted an inside day with a higher close due to technical short covering as it consolidated some of its losses over the past four trading sessions. Light support was due to the fact that Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state continues to miss forecasted rain events. The extremely dry conditions of the past several weeks are beginning to diminish yield potential in this region of the country. The state has lowered its yield projection from 6.426 million metric tons to 5.443 million metric tons and is down 21.5% from last year's level. Gains were limited as weather forecasts continue to call for chances for rain over the next five days. Friday's export sales report is expected to show another strong week of export sales. Technically, today's rally stalled after testing minor gap resistance crossing at 4.38. While additional short covering is possible on Friday, the threat of rain over the next five days will continue to limit near-term upside potential in the market. March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday after filling the gap crossing at 150.30 and testing the 62% retracement level of this month's rally crossing at 150. I would not be surprised to see additional short covering on Friday however, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness and a test of gap support crossing at 147.90 is possible into early-February. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness into the end of January is likely. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed sharply higher on Thursday led by steady to higher cash bids and take that packers may have to bid aggressively on Friday to fill kill orders. Additional support late in the day came from fund buying, which triggered protective stops that exaggerated today's rebound. I would not be surprised to see subdued trading on Friday ahead of this week's monthly hogs and pigs report. Closes above or below this week's trading range are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Both weekly and daily momentum indicators are overbought and are neutral to bearish hinting that a major top appears to be at hand. April cattle closed higher for the second day in a row on Thursday on technical short covering and spillover support from higher pork prices. Gains were limited by lower boxed beef prices. Closes above this month's apparent double top crossing at 74.87 are needed to renew the rally off last November's low. Momentum indicators are turning neutral to bullish hinting that the cattle market is poised for one more drive to new highs for the year. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee drifted lower on Thursday as origin selling overcame light roaster buying. Gains remain limited as favorable growing conditions in Brazil's coffee region continue to keep expectations for a record coffee crop high on trader's minds. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely into the end of January. This sets the stage for a possible test of this winter's low crossing at 44.75 later this month. March cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's short covering gains. March was unable to punch through broken trendline support after filling the gap at 1355 on Wednesday. March will need to close above 1422 or below 1260 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range and clear up near-term direction in the market. Short- term momentum indicators have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-February. March sugar gapped down and closed below last fall's uptrend line thereby opening the door for a test of December's low crossing at 690 later this month. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. Today's sell off was triggered by fears of a large Brazilian crop. March cotton closed lower on Thursday and below last week's low at 36.30 as traders indicated that they would need to see solid weekly export demand before selling abates. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a test of trading range support crossing near 34.91 is possible later this month. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Pacific Exchange To Trade Options on Bayer AG-Sponsored ADR. http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27734 E-Mini S&P MidCap 400 Futures Start Trading Jan. 28 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27733 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 278.20 8.60 +3.18 NGQ3 Henry Hub Natural Gas Aug 2003 2.966 0.068 +2.30 SIH3 Silver Mar 2003 4.400 0.094 +2.18 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 56.425 1.175 +2.13 OU2 Oats Sep 2002 144 1/4 2 3/4 +1.94 XHJ2 Lean Hogs Apr 2002 60.97 1.05 +1.75 NDM2 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2002 1574.00 26.50 +1.71 SMN2 Soybean Meal Jul 2002 149.4 2.3 +1.56 HOG2 Heating Oil Feb 2002 0.5339 0.0077 +1.47 YIK2 Mini NY Silver May 2002 4.335 0.060 +1.40 LOSERS SBK2 Sugar #11 World May 2002 6.35 -0.33 -4.95 PNJ2 Propane Apr 2002 0.2900 -0.0125 -4.35 CCH3 Cocoa Mar 2003 1170 -29 -2.42 CTN2 Cotton Jul 2002 39.10 -0.70 -1.76 KCK3 Coffee 'C' May 2003 61.00 -0.80 -1.29 PLJ2 Platinum Apr 2002 461.8 -5.9 -1.26 OJU2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Sep 2002 91.05 -1.00 -1.10 DBV2 Butter Oct 2002 143.500 -1.500 -1.03 RRK2 Rough Rice May 2002 4.040 -0.040 -0.98 NKH2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Mar 2002 10050 -95 -0.94 FREE 2002 Commodity Reference Calendar & Free Online Trading Software CD Rom http://www.ino.com/specials/linngroup/calendar.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS TEST TEST SECURITY 1 48.2350 16.7190 +167.19 TESTC TEST SECURITY 127.0000 75.7200 +60.93 NWRE NEOWARE SYSTEMS 6.3350 1.3700 +26.60 HAL HALLIBURTON CO 13.43 2.63 +24.35 PVTL PIVOTAL CORP 6.0800 1.1400 +23.03 AZPN ASPEN TECHNOLOGY 19.6000 3.5100 +21.81 AVNX AVANEX CORP 5.2500 0.9400 +21.61 PLXT PLX TECH INC 15.1600 2.6490 +21.36 VITR VITRIA TECHNOLOGY 7.2900 1.2800 +20.95 ORB ORBITAL SCIENCES CORP 6.20 0.99 +19.04 LOSERS ABI APPLERA CRP-APPLIED BIOSYSTEMS 25.20 -8.74 -25.90 DTAGY DIGITALE TELEKABEL ADS 5.0500 -1.4500 -21.01 TLGD TOLLGRADE COMMUNICATIONS 26.5700 -5.6000 -17.55 RESP RESPIRONICS INC 30.6700 -5.9100 -16.14 NVLD NOVEL DENIM HOLDINGS 11.2500 -1.5500 -13.96 STRD STRATEGIC DISTRIBUTION INC NEW 8.2700 -1.1900 -13.90 VSTN VESTIN GROUP 5.9000 -0.8000 -13.33 XICO XICOR INC 8.9700 -1.3700 -13.10 CTXS CITRIX SYSTEMS 17.7800 -2.4900 -12.26 COLT COLT TELECOM GROUP ADS 5.3100 -0.6800 -11.33 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2002 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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