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Enron Mail |
T H U R S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index is trending lower 0.10 points to 195.03. The US Dollar Index edged lower 0.10 points to 116.91. The Dow Industrials declined 26.16 points, at 10067.86, while the S&P 500 gained 1.41 points, last seen at 1156.55. The Nasdaq Composite trended higher 2.35 points to 2047.24. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE BOOK-"Trading Tactics Of The Pro's" Written By A Legendary Trader http://www.ino.com/specials/manfin/tactics.html _____________________________________________________________________ FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER . . . 'ingenuity' -- Index Options Advisory Service - One Seamless Service - Two Winning Strategies - Three Liquid markets http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/SUBING-ingenuity _____________________________________________________________________ Dear Andrew: What if you could consistently generate profits of 5%, 10% even 20% each month - EVERY MONTH? 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At the same time, momentum indicators are diverging and turning bearish thereby increasing the odds that a double top with December's high might be in place. However, closes below trendline support drawn across the fall/winter lows crossing near 1988.75 are needed before this can be confirmed. The NASDAQ closed up 2.35 points at 2047.24. The March S&P 500 index posted an inside day leaving Wednesday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Closes below the Dec./Jan. uptrend line crossing near 1148.70 and last week's low at 1136.50 would confirm that a double top has been posted. The Dow closed lower on Thursday and is testing the Dec./Jan. uptrend line crossing near 10,045. Closes below this support level would increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted. Short-term momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into mid-January. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds broke out above this winter's trading range on Thursday following the release of the latest economic reports. Today's rally opens the door for a larger-degree rebound into the later part of January with December's high crossing at 105-06 being a potential target. Stochastics are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed slightly lower on Thursday due to weakness in grains, cattle, copper and fiber. The CRB ended the day just above the 25% retracement level of the 2000/01 decline crossing at 195. At the same time, The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) signals that additional strength is possible. If the rally off last fall's low continues, the 38% retracement level of the 2000/01 decline crossing at 202.52 is a potential target later this winter. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of this week's losses. Concerns over weak demand despite recent production cuts by OPEC leave the markets vulnerable to additional weakness near-term. February crude oil closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering ahead of the close. Early weakness extended Wednesday's decline and breakout below December's uptrend line. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for additional short covering on Friday. Closes below today's low are needed to confirm this week's breakout below December's uptrend line thereby opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of January. If the decline off Monday's high continues, last week's low at 19.66 is February's next target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near- term. February heating oil closed higher on Thursday due to short covering erasing much of Wednesday's loss. February needs to post multiple closes below last week's low of 55.20 to confirm that the door has been opened for a larger-degree decline into the later part of January. Until then this week's lows may have defined the lower boundary of a narrow trading range, which began in late-December. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling additional weakness is possible near-term. February unleaded gas posted an upside reversal on Thursday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of this week's losses. However, it remains below December's broken uptrend line thereby leaving confirming that a short-term top has been posted. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for follow-through short covering on Friday, which could lead to a test of broken trendline support crossing near 61.40. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness appears likely. Closes below today's low at 58.40 would signal that a larger-degree decline into the later part of January may be unfolding. February Henry Hub natural gas drifted lower on Thursday following the release of this week's AGA inventory report, which was termed neutral. February continues to hover just above weekly support crossing at 2.17. If this support level gives way, psychological support crossing at 2.00 is a potential target later this month. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday however, a short covering rebound ahead of the close tempered most of today's loss leaving the door open for a possible resumption of its rebound off this year's low on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral as they await the resumption of this week's rebound before turning bullish. The late-day rebound along with a high-range close leaves March in position to close higher on Friday. Longer-term March needs to close above 118.85 or below 116.00 are needed to clear up near- term direction in the market. The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday but near mid-range, which leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. A number of short-term momentum indicators are turning neutral to bearish increasing the odds that the Franc may continue to drift lower into mid- January. Close above Monday's high at .6090 would indicate that the setback off this month's high might be coming to an end. The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday with session lows falling just short of testing key support crossing at .6230. A short covering rebound ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses leaving the door open for a possible short covering bounce on Friday. Momentum indicators are oversold but have not confirmed that a bottom is in place. The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday as it continues to consolidate above monthly support crossing at .7558. The mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Closes above Monday's high would confirm an upside breakout of this fall's downtrend line thereby signaling that a bottom has likely been posted. If this winter's decline resumes, the door would be open for a test of the next level of long-term support crossing at .7210 later this winter. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Thursday. However, profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for sideways to lower prices on Friday. Early strength led to a spike above the 62% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 287.60. If this resistance level is cleared, the 75% retracement level crossing at 291.40 is February's next target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but have become overbought warning traders that this week's rally may prove to be a blow off run to complete the correction, which began in December. March silver closed lower on Thursday. Overnight strength spiked above October's high crossing at 4.74 before profit taking pressured the market into the close. If October's high at 4.74 is cleared, last September's high at 4.795 is a potential target later this winter. The ADX (a trend- following indicator) is bullish however, momentum indicators are extremely overbought warning traders that a broad double top might be in or is near. March copper closed lower on Thursday after early strength failed to trigger follow-through buying following Wednesday's mid-range close. I would not be surprised to see another day or two of consolidation around present levels before March attempts to extend this week's rally. November's high crossing at 73.70 is March's next target if the rally resumes, Weekly momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the later part of January. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Thursday following a disappointing export sales report. Net export sales for the week hit a marketing year low of just 4.5 million bushels. This led to a gap lower opening and follow-through selling by both funds and commercials amid speculation that Friday's supply/demand report will come in bearish both in supply and demand. The key to tomorrow's supply/demand report will be how the market reacts to the data. If the data comes in bearish and the market rallies, it would signal that all of the bearish news has been factored into prices. If prices fall on bearish news, look for March corn to try and test weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 in the near future. March wheat closed higher on Thursday following a solid weekly export sales report. A surprise announcement of 300,000 metric tonnes of wheat sold to Egypt, which was not included in this morning's report, underpinned an early rally. However, weakness in corn and soybeans largely negated this bullish news, which left March consolidating above October's high crossing at 3.03. Momentum indicators are overbought warning traders that a bearish report on Friday could trigger a round of long-liquidation. Closes above fib resistance crossing at 3.09 1/2 are needed to confirm this week's breakout above weekly resistance crossing at 3.04. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed sharply lower on Thursday despite a respectable export sales figure of 21 million bushels this past week. Today's sell off was triggered by light position squaring ahead of Friday's supply/demand report and shifting weather forecasts for South America, which have increased chances for rain across some of the drier regions of their soybean belt going into the weekend. The market ignored rumored Chinese demand today as traders are concentrating on tomorrow's key government report for near-term direction in the market. March soybean meal posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday due in part to spillover weakness from soybeans along with today's disappointing export sales report. Today's report showed net sales of just 4,700 metric tonnes compared with last week's number approaching 180,000 metric tonnes. Nevertheless, March remained above broken trendline resistance and below initial fib resistance crossing at 150. Closes above 150 are needed to open the door for a larger- degree rebound this winter. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday due to aggressive spec. buying amidst optimistic cash fundamentals for the later part of January. Additional support came from rumbling that retailers might be increasing February loin bookings. Industry sources forecasts a 70,000 to 80,000 head run for Saturday slaughter, which further fueled ideas, that processors are running short of supplies and might push Friday's cash bids to build inventory. Today's close above December's broken uptrend line tempered the near-term bearish outlook in the market and leaves the door open for additional short covering on Friday. April cattle posted an inside day on Thursday thereby leaving Wednesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. This leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Futures prices continue to run at a premium to the cash market so we need to see increased slaughter levels and higher cash bids to support higher futures prices. Additional pressure came from lower mid-day boxed beef prices. Closes above Wednesday's high at 74.40 are needed to confirm this week's key reversal up and confirmation of a breakout of April's trading range of the past three weeks. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee gapped up on the open and closed higher for the third day in a row. Light profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains. However, the door is open for additional strength and a possible test of November's high crossing at 53.00 later this month. Momentum indicators remain bullish hinting that we could see sideways to higher prices into the first half of next week. March cocoa posted a key reversal down on Thursday after testing weekly resistance crossing at 1422 in early trading. Additional weakness on Friday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top might be in or near. Momentum indicators are bullish but overbought warning bullish traders that closes below broken support crossing at 1365 would greatly increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted. March sugar posted an inside day with a lower close as it consolidated below August's reaction high crossing at 804. I have an important time turn due today. Closes below this week's gap crossing at 78 would confirm that the turn marked a short-term top. Momentum indicators are overbought warning traders that that a short-term top might be near. If the rally off October's low continues, fib resistance crossing at 830 is March's next target. March cotton closed lower on Thursday despite a solid weekly export sales report. The report showed net sales of 157,500 bales. This led to a firmer opening however, traders quickly turned sellers as they positioned themselves ahead of Friday's supply/demand report. March cotton is range bound and will need to close above 39.80 or below 34.91 to clear up near-term direction in the market. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ NYBOT Delisting 5-Year Treasury Note Contract http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27701 Nasdaq Japan Board Appointing Yoshiro Katsuya As President http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27700 Eurex Exchange Council Elects Fischer As Chairman http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27699 Deutsche Borse Launches Trend Indicator For Neuer Markt http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27698 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS HOG2 Heating Oil Feb 2002 0.5533 0.0191 +3.55 XHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 55.90 1.70 +3.12 OJF2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jan 2002 94.50 2.75 +3.01 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 55.900 1.425 +2.62 SIZ5 Silver Dec 2005 4.845 0.103 +2.13 RRF2 Rough Rice Jan 2002 3.850 0.080 +2.12 CLU2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Sep 2002 21.26 0.42 +2.01 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.5896 0.0114 +1.96 ZRH2 U.S. Dollar/South African Rand Mar 2002 11.7310 0.2255 +1.96 GCM2 Gold Jun 2002 288.7 4.2 +1.47 LOSERS HGK2 Copper May 2002 0.7105 -0.0200 -2.78 AFF2 Aluminum Jan 2002 0.6595 -0.0165 -2.45 BOU2 Soybean Oil Sep 2002 16.57 -0.35 -2.07 XSF2 Soybeans Jan 2002 431 1/2 -8 1/2 -1.93 CCH2 Cocoa Mar 2002 1371 -26 -1.86 SQ2 Soybeans Aug 2002 440 3/4 -8 -1.78 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 7.92 -0.14 -1.74 PBN2 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2002 76.000 -1.150 -1.49 NGG2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Feb 2002 2.185 -0.033 -1.48 XOK2 Oats May 2002 181 3/4 -2 1/2 -1.38 FREE 2002 World Cup Trading Championship Entry Real Time Real Prizes & Real Money http://www.ino.com/specials/robbins/worldcup.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS MATK MARTEK BIOSCIENCES 28.3400 5.5990 +24.69 LKI LAZARE KAPLAN INTL 8.25 1.36 +19.74 MEDC MED-DESIGN CORP 23.0000 3.5300 +18.04 RBOT COMPUTER MOTION 5.2000 0.7600 +17.47 CRUS CIRRUS LOGIC 18.0300 2.5800 +16.70 SCE-B SOUTH'N CAL ED 4.08% PFD 15.00 2.00 +15.38 BKST BROOKSTONE INC 13.0500 1.6900 +14.25 PVTB PRIVATE BANCORP INC 23.1000 2.7900 +13.71 ARDI AT ROAD INC 5.8300 0.6400 +12.67 RFMD RF MICRO DEVICES 19.1700 2.1500 +12.63 LOSERS BPT BP PRUDHOE BAY ROYALTY 12.56 -2.35 -16.03 CRXA CORIXA CORP 12.3800 -2.3300 -15.78 FIMG FISCHER IMAGING 9.4500 -1.7200 -15.61 NMTC NUMERICAL TECHNOLOGIES 31.3500 -4.4400 -12.38 PECS PEC SOLUTIONS 36.4000 -5.0100 -12.08 SMMX SYMYX TECHNOLOGIES 23.7400 -3.1500 -11.78 CPWM COST PLUS 24.7200 -3.1500 -11.35 CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM 13.9200 -1.6500 -11.07 INFY INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES ADS 66.9600 -7.9200 -10.57 ABFI AMER BUSINESS FINL SVCS 16.0100 -1.8700 -10.35 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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