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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST T U E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Tuesday: The CRB Index has slid 0.56 points to 187.31. The US Dollar Index declined 0.56 points to 119.48. The Dow Industrials moved lower 247.51 points, at 9618.24, while the S&P 500 moved down 32.42 points, last seen at 1100.64. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed sharply lower on Tuesday over bearish concerns from Tyco and Worldcom. The NASDAQ erased all of the gains of the past four trading sessions and is poised to test last week's low crossing at 1879.24 following today's breakout below the 25% retracement level of the September- January rally crossing at 1930.89. If the decline off January's high resumes, the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 1826.96 is the NASDAQ's next likely target. The NASDAQ closed down 50.93 points at 1892.98. The March S&P 500 index also closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it broke out below this week's double bottom and is closing in on the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 1087.97. The March S&P 500 closed down 35.00 points at 1100.50. The Dow closed posted a key reversal down and closed below major support crossing at 9706.20 on Tuesday. Today's sell off was triggered by a combination of factors including more unsettling news for Tyco, rumors about Worldcom and a shift in management at IBM. Today's dramatic breakout below aforementioned support has opened the door for additional weakness into late-winter with fib support crossing at 9318.20 marking the next likely downside target for the Dow. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed sharply higher on Tuesday breaking out above January's downtrend line signaling that a short-term bottom might be in place. I would not be surprised to see a possible setback due to light profit taking ahead of Wednesday's decision by the Fed regarding interest rates. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed lower on Tuesday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal down. This week's breakout to new lows has set the stage for a possible test of the 75% retracement level crossing at 185.93 in the near future. Momentum indicators are oversold but indicate that additional weakness is possible near-term. Weakness in grains, pork, some foods and energies pressured the CRB index today. The recent breakout below last fall's uptrend line indicates that another round of deflation is hitting commodities. Weekly indicators are on the verge of rolling over, which would increase the odds that the CRB could ultimately breakout below the double bottom on the monthly chart later this year. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Tuesday with the exception of natural gas ahead of anticipated builds in this week's API inventory reports due out later this afternoon. Total stocks are significantly above levels seen a year ago and also above levels widely considered as a safe cushion. Recent production cuts by OPEC have been more than off set by weak demand due to a global economic slowdown. March crude oil extended its setback off last Friday's high, which leaves the door open for a possible retest of recent lows if this week's inventory report proves bearish. While momentum indicators such as stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish this week, underlying fundamental in crude oil remain weak, which leaves the market vulnerable to another sell off this winter if demand does not pickup. March heating oil closed lower on Tuesday erasing most of last week's gains over the past two days. This leaves the door open for another test of the lower boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 51.20. Multiple closes below this support level would confirm a range breakout and could lead to a test of weekly support crossing at 49.30 later this winter. March unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday in anticipation of another build in gasoline stocks in this afternoon's API inventory report. Today's sell off turned a number of momentum indicators neutral to bearish again, which leaves the door open for another possible challenge of last fall's uptrend line crossing near 55.55. Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible challenge of last fall's low crossing at 51.90 later this winter. March Henry Hub natural gas closed modestly higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's loss. However, March will need to close above this winter's downtrend line and last week's high crossing at 2.203 before a short-term bottom is confirmed. Until then, the door remains open for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1.76 later this winter. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed lower on Tuesday due to light profit taking following Monday's mid-range close. While additional profit taking is possible on Wednesday, I would not rule out one more surge up with last year's high crossing at 121.29 marking a likely target. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought hinting at the very least that we could see a brief pause near current prices. The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday due to light short covering as consolidated some of its recent losses. However, the daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is likely into early-February. If the decline continues, December's spike low crossing at .5797 is March's next target. The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday to confirm Monday's key reversal up. Session highs spiked above the previous reaction high crossing at .6300 before profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gain. The mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Wednesday. Closes above today's high at .6312 would confirm a bottom while opening the door for a larger-degree rebound into February. Momentum indicators are turning bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to short covering. However, March remains below broken weekly support crossing at .7558 and last fall's downtrend line crossing near .7600. Closes above these resistance levels are needed to confirm a bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are diverging and turning bullish signaling that a bottom and trend change might be near. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday due to short covering posting a key reversal up after spiking below the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 278.70 in access trading. Today's sell off in the U.S. Dollar along with weakness in the equity markets triggered today's rally due to a flight to quality move on the part of investors. Additional strength this week would turn a number of bearish indicators neutral to bullish thereby increasing the odds that a short-term bottom has been posted. March silver closed higher on Tuesday after testing the 75% retracement level crossing at 4.22 in access trading. Today's key reversal up along with the oversold condition among a number of momentum indicators strongly suggests that a short-term bottom have been posted. Closes above broken fib support crossing at 4.32 are needed before a low can be confirmed. March copper closed lower on Tuesday but remains locked in last week's trading range. Closes above or below this range are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early February. Closes below last week's low crossing at 69.20 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn posted another new contract low on Tuesday as the stage is set for a likely test of weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 possibly later this week. The recent break off January's high has opened the door for a likely decline into February when a mid-winter low is due to be posted. Weekend rains have halted a decline in South American corn yields while export demand remains sluggish due in part to the rally in the U.S. Dollar, which has made U.S. corn more expensive than foreign feed grade wheat for example. There is little fresh bullish news for the market to chew on between now and the first of March, which leaves the door wide open for commodity funds to continue to pressure the market lower. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the first half of February. March wheat extended its breakout below December's uptrend line on Tuesday thereby confirming yesterday's breakout. The door is open for additional weakness and a possible test of the late-December low crossing at 2.83 in the near future. Overnight export sales were off set by weather forecast, which are calling for increased chances for precip across the southern Plains, which could drop some much needed moisture in the form of rain or snow later this week. Expectations for increased competition from Argentina wheat on the world market offers little near-term support to the market until it sees a significant increase in export demand for U.S. wheat. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to renewed fund selling, which was triggered by weakness in soybean meal. The sell off of the past two weeks has largely factored in improving weather conditions across South America with only the uncertainty of Chinese demand left for bears to sell into. Today's low fell just short of testing the 75% retracement level of January's rally, which crosses at 4.24 3/4. Closes below this support level would more than likely open the door for a test of this month's low crossing at 4.15 3/4 by early-February. At the same time, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely into early-February before a mid-winter low is due to be posted. March soybean meal posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday leaving Monday's upside reversal unconfirmed at this time. March's inability to sustain Monday's higher close followed by today's low-range close leaves the door open for additional weakness into early-February. I am looking for March meal to fill the January 11th gap crossing at 147.90 and possible test the 75% retracement level of January's rally crossing at 147 in the near future. Momentum indicators remain bearish warning bullish traders that additional weakness is possible into early-February. It will take closes above Monday's high to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed lower on Tuesday but near mid-range as threatening winter weather is expected to move across the Midwest this week is being off set by expectations for steady cash bids on Wednesday. A short covering bounce ahead of the close and this week's CME weekly belly movement report tempered some of today's loss. April remains locked in last week's trading range and will need to close above 61.90 or below 59.32 to confirm a breakout and point the next direction of the next trending move. Momentum indicators are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible into early- February. April cattle surged to its highest close since September 19th on Wednesday. Today's rally was underpinned by fund buying and speculator short covering triggered by forecasts calling for a winter storm to move across the Plains and into the Midwest later this week. Today's rally cleared last October's high of 75.45 but fell short of testing the 75% retracement level of last year's decline, which crosses at 76.00. If this resistance level is cleared, we could see April return to last summer's narrow trading range beginning at 77.10 later this winter. Momentum indicators are bullish but diverging, which is a warning to bulls that a short-term top might be near. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed lower on Tuesday for the tenth day in a row as it posted a new contract low in the process. Fund selling was the primary factor behind today's decline as expectations of a record coffee crop in Brazil along with light producer selling continue to weigh on prices. Multiple closes below the previous low of 44.75 are needed to confirm today's trading range breakout. If the breakout is confirmed, the door would be open for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 40-cents later this winter. March cocoa closed steady on Tuesday after a short covering rebound ahead of the close erased early losses. Short-term momentum indicators are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-February. However, closes above 1422 or below 1260 are needed to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. March sugar plunged to new lows for the year and exceeded December's low at 690 on Tuesday. News that Iran canceled a tender for sugar along with a lower opening was all the reason funds needed to short the market. Today's move to new lows for the year has opened the door for a likely test of last November's low crossing at 661 possibly later this week. March cotton closed modestly higher on Tuesday after tests of last week's lows in early trading halted today's decline. However, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that a test of trading range support crossing near 34.91 is still possible later this month. Closes above 39.80 or below 34.91 are needed to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ CFTC Chairman Newsome Testifies At Energy Hearing http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27741 Unanimous Approval To Merge Portugal's BLVP Into Euronext http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27740 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS NGG2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Feb 2002 2.006 0.117 +6.13 HUU2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Sep 20 0.6186 0.0280 +4.52 LBX2 Random Length Lumber Nov 2002 276.10 8.80 +3.08 AGJ2 Silver 1,000 oz. Apr 2002 4.370 0.113 +2.65 YIN2 Mini NY Silver Jul 2002 4.360 0.080 +1.87 HOK3 Heating Oil May 2003 0.5601 0.0100 +1.80 KIJ2 Kilo Gold Apr 2002 284.5 5 +1.79 OH2 Oats Mar 2002 194 1/2 3 +1.57 SEX2 Sugar #14 Domestic Nov 2002 21.00 0.30 +1.45 LCG2 Live Cattle Feb 2002 73.675 1.050 +1.44 LOSERS SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 6.75 -0.41 -5.71 AGG2 Silver 1,000 oz. Feb 2002 4.020 -0.223 -5.26 SPH3 S&P 500 Mar 2003 1114.90 -42.00 -3.64 RH2 Russell 1000 Index Mar 2002 581.25 -18.00 -3.00 QLZ2 Central Appalachian Coal Dec 2002 25.50 -0.75 -2.86 YLH2 NYSE Large Composite Mar 2002 563.85 -15.75 -2.84 NDM2 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2002 1537.00 -44.00 -2.79 YJH2 Mini Dow Jones Industrial Mar 2002 9592 -275 -2.79 YXH2 NYSE Composite Mar 2002 563.85 -15.75 -2.71 DJU2 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Sep 2002 9618 -266 -2.69 FREE 2002 World Cup Trading Championship Entry Real Time Real Prizes & Real Money http://www.ino.com/specials/robbins/worldcup.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS POZN POZEN INC 5.9800 1.1000 +22.00 EDUC EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 7.0000 1.0400 +17.13 FILE FILENET CORP 22.0500 2.9000 +15.08 NRRD NORSTAN, INC 5.7600 0.6200 +11.74 WORK WORKFLOW MANAGEMENT 5.6500 0.5500 +10.58 ONIS ONI SYSTEMS 5.1000 0.4700 +10.22 EXPE EXPEDIA INC 55.8600 4.8720 +9.60 ALOY ALLOY INC 20.1900 1.6600 +9.00 STAR LONE STAR STEAKHOUSE/SALOON 18.3900 1.4800 +8.94 KM-T K MART FINANCING I 7.75% PFD 6.90 0.53 +8.53 LOSERS REXL REXHALL INDUS 6.7000 -1.8100 -25.31 WMB THE WILLIAMS COMPANIES INC 18.78 -5.42 -22.45 WWCA WESTERN WIRELESS'A' 7.7500 -2.0600 -20.81 TWAV THERMA-WAVE INC 12.3600 -3.1500 -20.26 TYC TYCO INTERNATIONAL 33.65 -8.30 -19.76 USG USG CORP 7.10 -1.61 -18.48 WMB-I WILLIAMS COMPANIES INC(THE) 21.40 -4.18 -16.34 SPTN SPARTAN STORES INC 8.5500 -1.6500 -16.18 MMR MCMORAN EXPLORATION 5.25 -0.92 -15.21 TTIL TTI TEAM TELECOM INTL 27.3600 -4.6600 -14.36 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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