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T U E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Tuesday: The CRB Index is trending higher 0.46 points to 189.76. The US Dollar Index rose 0.51 points to 119.41. The Dow Industrials eased 6.85 points, at 9685.43, while the S&P 500 fell 4.42 points, last seen at 1090.02. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 17.01 points to 1838.52. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE BOOK-"Trading Tactics Of The Pro's" Written By A Legendary Trader http://www.ino.com/specials/manfin/tactics.html _____________________________________________________________________ MILLION DOLLAR TAX TIPS FOR TRADERS - An INO.com Exclusive! http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/FMC3857-TaxCut _____________________________________________________________________ How to Make $1 Million on $5 a Day . . . and Get the IRS to Foot the Bill! Dear Andrew: Would you like to see how successful traders reduce their annual tax bill? Find out how to protect your profits, cut your loses and . . . 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stocks finished the day lower after engaging in some jitterbugging that would have left anyone winded. The final twist came in the last hour of trading, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a 60 point gain to a one point loss after the Senate said it would likely shelve the economic stimulus bill that president George W. Bush said would hasten the economy's recovery. Senate Majority leader Tom Daschle said neither Republicans nor Democrats had enough votes to win approval for their competing measures, so he would likely withdraw it. A lot of companies were counting on some kind of fiscal stimulus to give their operations a boost, a kind of extra push toward profitability. "Now some people have to recalibrate their expectations," said Scott Curtis, head of trading at Credit Lyonnais. It seemd when stocks reached a certain sell-off point, investors came in and shares rose. But other investors, eager to book any kind of profit, almost just as quickly crowded in to sell, leaving stocks in seesaw mode. That kind of action does not bode well for putting together anything sustainable to the upside, Curtis said. "You have to be more short-term oriented right now, going for nickels and dimes, not dollars." (Dow Jones) INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest Debt futures bounced back on short covering late in the session to finish slightly mixed after Senate majority leader Tom Daschle indicated that an economic stimulus bill would probably be shelved. That prompted some uncertainty about how strong an economic recovery the market should expect. Previously, debt prices had been hurt by an auction that was described by analysts as "poorly received" and "ugly," as well as by strength in equities around the time of the auction. While there was a de-linkage between the stock and Treasury markets late in the session, the link was beginning to return just ahead of the close and continued in after-hours electronic trading, sources said. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes No report today. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy Crude oil and energy products futures closed lower but off their lows Tuesday amid late technical short covering and talk of Venezuela curbing its refinery output significantly. The state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA said earlier that it was planning to shut its 108,000 barrel-per-day fluid catalytic cracker at its Amuay refinery for routine maintenance for one month in early February. Reports said the unit could shut on Friday. "It did have the look of a refinery shutdown," said John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA Inc. of the price surge at the close. But he emphasized that locals were behind the last minute buying in an attempt to break resistance at $20.06/bbl. In the afternoon session, crude came off its lows on news that Iraqi exports were steady at 1.93 million barrels a day in the week ended Feb. 1. However, Iraqid oil exports were down about 25% to 1.5 mln bn/d over the last two months. (OsterDowJones) CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies In erratic trading Tuesday, the dollar firmed broadly as fears of another dollar-weakening selloff in the Dow Jones Industrial Average proved to be unfounded. Traders continue to suggest that the currency market favors the dollar, with Monday's euro and yen gains just a brief reversal within a dollar uptrend. "It's been whippy, but the general trend is that you should be buying dollars," said Joe Francomano, vice president of foreign exchange at Erste Bank in New York. Tuesday, the possibility of further unpleasant surprises tied to US corporate accounting was a major concern for equity investors and injected additional uncertainty into both equity and foreign-exchange trading, said analysts. Traders weren't surprised when the euro initially edged higher overnight, climbing to test resistance at $0.8720. But the single currency lost momentum and began to ease back in the face of some solid dollar buying, traders said. Dollar/yen moved higher throughout the day, gaining about 2% from overnight lows, as yen-negative sentiment outweighed any concerns over the U.S. economy and the dollar. Traders reported sustained buying interest in dollar/yen, with bids from a major U.S. investment bank pushing the pair to an intraday high at Y134.25.(Dow Jones) PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals Comex April Gold soared to a high of $299.80 a troy ounce Tuesday, stopping just short of the critical $300 level, a psychological target for quite some time. The contract slid back to $298.80, an $8.70 gain over Monday's close. A torrent of fund buying touched off buy stops beginning above $294.50, according to trade Jim Pogoda at Mitsubishi International Corp. in New York. Wavering investor confidence in U.S. equity markets continues to be seen as the main driver for the rally, which began Friday from the $282.00 level. One London- based analyst said a move to $300 would represent a 6% gain in the gold price in just three trading sessions, which wasn't sustainable. George Gero, senior vice president at Prudential Securities in New York, said $300 was an important level because it's where products have been waiting to sell gold for a while. Mar copper futures remained entrenched within a 73 to 74 cents per pound range Tuesday as profit-taking and short covering continued to cancel each other out to keep prices mainly flat. Mar made frequent probes of support in the 73.00 cent area throughout the day, and even dipped below on occasion to register three-day lows of 73.60 cents. However, dip buying and further short covering at the lows propped up activity and eventually carried prices back to the 73.25 cent area by settlement. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains Corn futures ended slightly higher at the CBOT on Tuesday, continuing marginal gains from the contract lows set last week. Wheat recovered to finish higher, as a recent wave of fund-selling lost steam and bull-spreading picked up. Ideas were that the intra-market spreads were due for a slight correct. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains Soybean futures showed no desire to follow rallying soyoil higher and ended up narrowly mixed with nearby contracts lower after an unusually quiet session. While soyoil had a record large net short position in the hands of commodity funds to support a corrective rally to the upside, soybeans had nothing but an empty news from and a South American weather forecast that has already been largely factored into prices (OsterDowJones) LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock Fund buying and commercial selling made for a higher lean hog futures market that was underpinned by friendly cash fundamentals. The prospect of steady to strong live hog bids has led to firm midweek futures ideas. A couple of days ago, it appeared nothing on the cash side favored lean hog traders. Now there is an air of cautious invincibility. "There is no bade news," a pit source said. However, a few others are still scratching their heads over the "wishy-washy" trade the past week or so that left little in the way of solid information to chart market diredction. "The market (lean hogs) is up one day and down the next," the pork complex trader said. "There is nothing to hang your hat on," he added. Higher lean hogs provided moral support to bellies which ended the session strong on late-session activity. (OsterDowJones) FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food Arabica coffee futures settled lower amid selling from commission houses and large commodity funds against steady buying from trade houses and roasters. "The funds are just adding to their shorts, and they are not done yet," said one desk broker in New York. "They'rre going to get (their net position) back to 9,000-9,500 shorts." In the week ended Jan. 29, large speculators held 6,689 contracts in the CSCE coffee futures market, but when options are included, the funds net position is 8,192 short contracts, according to the COT report issued by the CFTC every Friday. This number has led some traders to wonder whether the selling of shorts isn't nearing an end. It was a mercurial day for cocoa futures Tuesday as prices jumped the fence of the unchanged mark back and forth numerous times before settling lower on the day. Overall, activity was dominated by indecisive locals and small speculators, unsure about which position they should hold. Locals, in particular, started liquidating their long holdings - the inheritance of the previous session's strength - and shifted numerous times between the short and the long side, but ended "with empty pockets," a trader said. World sugar futures ended higher Tuesday as trade houses and end-users bought, spurring small speculators and locals to cover shorts. Funds were on both sides. the market began to address the oversold status after losing a fourth of its value in recent weeks. The Mar contract settled 10 points higher at 6.34 cents per pound and May closed up 12 points at 5.85c. Cotton futures settled moderately lower Tuesday, rubbing out all of the previous session's gains, but still holding onto most of the hefty gains from Friday. As expected, many of the large participants were on the sidelines as the market is getting ready for a busy end of the week ahead of numerous reports and fresh fundamental data that could determine the near-term course of prices. (OsterDowJones) Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Crude Oil Margins Lowered http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27775 CBOT/MidAm Presidents Day Holiday Schedule http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27774 CME Announces Presidents Day Holiday Schedule http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27773 Hong Kong And S&P Plan New Series Of Indexes http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27772 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS GCV2 Gold Oct 2002 301 19.5 +6.99 AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.390 0.170 +4.01 SIZ4 Silver Dec 2004 4.538 0.171 +3.85 YIH2 Mini NY Silver Mar 2002 4.390 0.100 +2.33 KIJ2 Kilo Gold Apr 2002 296.5 6 +2.08 YGG2 Mini NY Gold Feb 2002 291.1 5.8 +2.03 SBK2 Sugar #11 World May 2002 5.85 0.11 +1.92 XHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 57.00 0.95 +1.69 LHJ2 Lean Hogs Apr 2002 62.725 0.900 +1.46 AFH2 Aluminum Mar 2002 0.6540 0.0090 +1.40 LOSERS AGG2 Silver 1,000 oz. Feb 2002 4.051 -0.237 -5.53 DBN2 Butter Jul 2002 134.250 -4.750 -3.42 ZOK2 Oats (a/c/e) May 2002 185 1/2 -6 -3.24 DAH2 BFP Milk Mar 2002 11.15 -0.27 -2.36 NGH2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2002 2.074 -0.047 -2.22 LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 263.20 -5.60 -2.08 NKU2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Sep 2002 9445 -195 -2.03 CCH2 Cocoa Mar 2002 1380 -24 -1.71 NDH2 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2002 1462.00 -25.00 -1.68 SEH2 Sugar #14 Domestic Mar 2002 20.63 -0.35 -1.67 FREE: MANAGED FUTURES & IRA KIT AUDIO & VIDEO, reports, and info on Futures & Options IRAs http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/manfut.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS TESTL THE L TEST 6.4600 2.4300 +60.75 AKSY AKSYS LTD 6.0590 0.9000 +16.51 JCOM J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS NEW 5.1600 0.7400 +16.37 ENTU ENTRUST INC 6.4600 0.9010 +15.95 OS OREGON STEEL MILLS 6.24 0.79 +14.50 GOLD GOLD FIELDS LTD SP ADR 7.7200 0.9400 +13.82 SFD SMITHFIELD FOODS INC 24.60 2.84 +13.05 DYII DYNACQ INTL 6.8198 0.7700 +12.69 INOC INNOTRAC CORP 6.5100 0.7500 +12.30 PAAS PAN AMER SILVER 5.4299 0.5800 +11.93 LOSERS QXLC QXL RICARDO PLC ADR 7.8300 -3.3500 -30.45 TUNE MICROTUNE INC 13.9900 -4.9100 -25.97 NXTL NEXTEL COMMUNIC'NS'A' 5.0500 -1.7000 -25.07 HC HANOVER COMPRESSOR HOLDING CO 10.63 -3.26 -23.45 CIC AT&T CAPITAL 8.125%'PINES' 18.20 -5.50 -23.21 TYC TYCO INTERNATIONAL 23.10 -6.80 -22.74 CIP AT&T CAPITAL 8.25% 'PINES' 18.30 -5.35 -22.43 PCS SPRINT CORP(PCS GRP) 10.99 -2.84 -20.64 ELXS ELXSI CORP 6.9500 -1.6125 -18.20 LWIN LEAP WIRELESS INTL 8.0300 -1.6590 -17.28 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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