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T U E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Tuesday: The CRB Index is higher 0.50 points to 193.00. The US Dollar Index moved up 0.73 points to 117.37. The Dow Industrials trended higher 32.73 points, at 9924.15, while the S&P 500 rose 7.78 points, last seen at 1146.19. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher by 10.17 points to 2000.91. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE 2002 Commodity Reference Calendar http://www.ino.com/specials/rjo/calendar.html _____________________________________________________________________ FED-UP INSIDER REVEALS HOW TO . . . Triple Your Money With Amazing Real-Money-Proven System! . . . Guaranteed or it's FREE! http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWMM-Marksman _____________________________________________________________________ Dear Andrew: I've seen his actual in-the-market results. Lee made a $7,675 profit after commissions. The day before was a cool $17,302 profit, again, after commissions. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as they consolidated some of their recent losses. However, short-term momentum indicators have turned bearish indicating that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. The NASDAQ closed up 10.17 points at 2000.91. The March S&P 500 index also closed higher on Tuesday posting a potential key reversal up. Additional strength on Wednesday is needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. Until then, the door remains open for sideways to lower prices into the later part of January. The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as light bargain hunting buying surfaced. Additional support came from an optimistic outlook for corporate profits due to upbeat financial statements from key names in the financial sector. However, the short covering rally waned late in the day allowing the Dow to close mid-range. This leaves the door open for sideways trading on Wednesday. However, the door remains open for a possible test of the late fall low crossing at 9691.30 later this month. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds posted a key reversal up on Tuesday following Monday's setback, which tested broken resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 103-06. Today's reversal up sets the stage for additional strength possibly into the end of the week with the 50% retracement level crossing at 104-25 being the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but have become overbought hinting that upside potential appears limited near-term. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed higher on Tuesday due to a rebound in some energy markets, fiber, cattle and corn. Early weakness led to a spike below the December-January uptrend line crossing near 192.50. If this support gives way, last fall's uptrend line crossing near 190.90 is the next likely downside target. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to light short covering as they consolidated some of Monday's losses ahead of this afternoon's API inventory reports. Traders are expecting that today's reports will show significant drawdowns in distillate stocks as they correct last week's surprise build of almost 6 million barrels. Gains were limited due to expectations for modest builds in crude oil and unleaded gasoline supplies. February crude oil posted a relatively quiet inside day with a slightly higher close but remained below the November- December uptrend line, which was broken on Monday. If the decline continues, December's low crossing at 18.20 is February's next likely target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near- term. February heating oil posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Tuesday as it consolidates above the contract low crossing at 50.70. Closes below this support level would negate a possible triple bottom while opening the door for a test of weekly support crossing at 49.30 later this month. A bearish API inventory report is needed to provide the catalyst for additional weakness. Should the report prove friendly, it could trigger a short covering rebound thereby increasing the odds that a low was posted on Monday. February unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday due to light short covering as it rebounded off the Nov.-Dec. uptrend line. While another day or two of consolidation is possible, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into the last half of January. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would open the door for a test of December's low crossing at 51.50 later this month. February Henry Hub natural gas closed modestly higher on Tuesday but remains locked in last week's trading range. Closes above 2.35 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. I would not be surprised to see further consolidation above weekly support crossing at 2.17 until after this week's AGA inventory report is released on Wednesday. Short-term momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed sharply higher on Tuesday signaling that the setback off last week's high appears to be coming to an end. Closes above last week's high crossing at 117.80 are needed to confirm this. March continues to hold above minor trendline support drawn across the December-January lows. Today's rebound turned stochastics and the RSI neutral to bullish hinting that a minor low is in or near. From a broader perspective, the March Dollar needs to close above 118.85 or below 115.11 to clear up near-term direction in the market. The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Tuesday thereby tempering the idea that it might be forming an inverted head and shoulders bottom. Closes below the fall low of .5973 would be very bearish as the door would be open for a test of December's low .5797 later this month. Today's decline turned stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish increasing the odds that a larger-degree decline might be unfolding during the last half of January. The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above the December 31st reaction high crossing at .6290 signaling that a bottom has likely been posted. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible during the last half of January. Additional closes above .6290 are needed to confirm today's breakout, which would open the door for a possible test of last year's downtrend line, which crosses near .6379 later this winter. The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday and above this fall's downtrend line. Closes above this resistance level and last Monday's high crossing at .7696 are needed to confirm today's trendline breakout. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible during the last half of January. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold extended its loss off last week's high as long-liquidation continued on Tuesday. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss leaving February to close near mid-range. Tuesday's decline turned a number of short-term momentum indicators including stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish from overbought levels thereby increasing the odds that the rally off December's low might be coming to an end. March silver closed higher on Tuesday due to light short covering. Overnight lows spiked below the 38% retracement level of November's rally before a short covering rebound during the day session led to a modest rally. While another day or two of consolidation around December's uptrend line is possible, momentum indicators have turned bearish thereby increasing the odds that last week's high marked a double top with the fall highs. March copper closed lower on Tuesday however, losses were limited following the release of today's economic data, which hints that industrial demand might finally be shaping up to improve. As long as March holds above broken resistance crossing at 69.50 the door will remain open for a possible run at November's high crossing at 73.70 later this winter. Today's setback turned stochastics neutral warning traders that additional strength will be needed soon to keep bulls in control of the market. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn gapped lower on the open due to spillover selling from Monday's poor close. However, the unwinding of the wheat/corn spread late in the day triggered a short-covering rally in the market. Additional support came from news that Brazil's Agriculture Ministry officials were meeting to discuss the impact of a smaller-than-expected corn crop due to hot-dry conditions in Southern Brazil. Technically, today's high spiked above the July-January downtrend line, which crosses near 2.13 1/2 before a sell off ahead of the close tempered some of today's gain. Closes above last year's downtrend line and Monday's high at 2.15 1/4 are needed to confirm that a major bottom and trend change has taken place. March wheat closed lower on Tuesday and is challenging the December-January uptrend line crossing near 3.01. Today's close below broken weekly resistance crossing at 3.04 has increased the odds that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line are needed to confirm a top. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish with today's decline providing additional evidence that a setback during the last half of January is possible. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed fractionally lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of its recent gains. Session lows filled Monday's gap at 4.44 1/2. Losses were limited due to talk of possible yield losses in Southern Brazil if the current weather pattern persist during the last half of January. At the same time, gains were limited due to uncertainty over near-term Chinese demand. Closes above Monday's high would likely lead to a test of November's high crossing at 4.57 1/2 before a round of profit taking unfolds. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible for the balance of the week. March soybean meal closed slightly lower on Tuesday due to light profit taking as it consolidated below the 50% retracement level of the July/January decline, which crosses at 159. The mid-range close leaves the door open for additional consolidation below this key resistance level on Wednesday. If this resistance level is cleared, the 62% retracement level crossing at 163 is March's next likely target. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible during the last half of January. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs posted a new contract high on Tuesday and closed above weekly resistance crossing at 61.13. Expectations for higher cash bids on Wednesday and improving product demand underpinned today's rally. At the same time, futures are running at a stiff premium to the cash bids, which might make follow-through buying difficult on Wednesday. Technically, the daily ADX remains in a bullish mode while stochastics and the RSI are overbought and diverging, which is often a precursor to a top and trend change. Trendline support begins near 60.20. April cattle closed higher on Tuesday and above the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 74.40. Growing expectations for higher cash bids this week along with improving boxed beef prices continues to underpin futures prices. Technically, April futures broke out above the 62% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 74.34 thereby renewing its rally off November's low. If the rally continues, October's highs crossing at 75.45 are April's next target. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed lower on Tuesday amidst choppy trading. Early strength was tied to light fund buying. However, prices stalled out near last week's high of 51.50, which triggered a round of profit taking ahead of the close. Expectations for increased Central America producer selling continues to limit near-term upside potential in the market. Momentum indicators are bullish but nearing there respective overbought zones hinting that time might be running out for bulls. Prospects for a bumper Brazilian coffee crop also continue to hang over the market. March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday due to light short covering. Early weakness tested the late-December reaction low crossing at 1260. March's inability to push below this minor support level triggered a short covering bounce into the close. I would not be surprised to see follow-through short covering on Wednesday as March might try to test Monday's gap. However, this week's breakout below the November-January uptrend line along with a downturn by momentum indicators strongly suggests that a major top has been posted. March sugar closed sharply higher on Tuesday due to short covering and filled Monday's gap at 774. However, session highs fell short of testing the December-January broken uptrend line thereby leaving the door open for a possible resumption of its decline later this week. Short-term momentum indicators have turned bearish indicating that sideways to lower prices are possible during the last half of January. March cotton posted a key reversal up on Tuesday due to local short covering triggered by overseas speculator buying. Additional short covering is possible on Wednesday with today's high-range close, as the market will try to search for protective stops above last week's high of 38.50. March cotton remains range bound and needs to close above 39.80 or below 34.90 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. Until then look for back and fill type trading to continue. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ American Stock Exchange ETF Symposium Attracts Attention http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27710 Mikey's Methods Promoter Charged With Commodity Fraud http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27709 Chairman Newsome To Head CFTC's Ag Advisory Committee http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27708 Daily Volume Record For Crude Oil Options http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27707 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS PNJ2 Propane Apr 2002 0.2840 0.0090 +3.27 LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 256.30 7.30 +2.93 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 7.83 0.21 +2.76 NGG2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Feb 2002 2.291 0.060 +2.67 XHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 56.22 1.15 +2.08 DAG2 BFP Milk Feb 2002 11.97 0.24 +2.05 CTH2 Cotton Mar 2002 37.34 0.75 +2.05 PBN2 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2002 77.250 1.450 +1.91 HOU2 Heating Oil Sep 2002 0.5558 0.0105 +1.88 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 56.200 0.950 +1.72 LOSERS AGJ2 Silver 1,000 oz. Apr 2002 4.250 -0.266 -5.89 PAH2 Palladium Mar 2002 414.00 -15.90 -3.70 CCZ2 Cocoa Dec 2002 1204 -18 -1.50 XWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 302 -4 1/4 -1.39 WK2 Wheat May 2002 301 1/4 -4 -1.31 EJH2 Euro/Japanese Yen Mar 2002 115.45 -1.53 -1.30 BOZ2 Soybean Oil Dec 2002 16.55 -0.20 -1.19 OJH2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Mar 2002 88.75 -1.05 -1.17 ECH2 EuroFX Mar 2002 0.88160 -0.01010 -1.13 XPH2 British Pound Mar 2002 1.4344 -0.0140 -0.97 FREE BOOK-"Trading Tactics Of The Pro's" Written By A Legendary Trader http://www.ino.com/specials/manfin/tactics.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS CNGR CROWN GROUP 7.4500 1.6400 +28.03 CECX CASTLE ENERGY CORP 6.5250 1.3500 +25.96 INGN INTROGEN THERAPEUTICS 5.2500 0.9100 +21.06 RCII RENT-A-CENTER 37.4580 6.4400 +20.78 XMSR XM SATELLITE RADIO'A' 16.4800 2.7800 +20.59 RNT.A AARON RENTS CL'A' 12.65 2.15 +20.48 OMN OMNOVA SOLUTIONS INC 7.00 1.13 +19.42 VGIN VISIBLE GENETICS 9.5600 1.5004 +17.97 WSB WASHINGTON SAVINGS BANK 6.39 0.95 +17.92 GBR GREENBRIAR CORP 21.50 3.00 +16.67 LOSERS FWC-A FOST WHEELER PFD CAP TR I 9% 6.95 -8.18 -55.35 MFUN MORGAN FUNSHARES 6.2500 -1.2500 -16.67 MHUT MEDI-HUT CO INC 9.5000 -1.9000 -16.67 HDL HANDLEMAN CO 11.44 -1.87 -14.05 KFRC KFORCE INC 5.5000 -0.7900 -13.06 CHKP CHECK POINT SOFTWARE TECH 38.6800 -5.7300 -12.90 PSAI PEDIATRIC SERVICES OF AMERICA 8.5000 -1.2000 -12.85 ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 5.75 -0.83 -12.61 KM-T K MART FINANCING I 7.75% PFD 13.32 -1.93 -12.59 DG DOLLAR GENERAL 14.03 -2.02 -12.55 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2002 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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