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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST W E D N E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index is up 0.10 points to 195.13. The US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.16 points to 116.99. The Dow Industrials dropped 56.46 points, at 10094.09, while the S&P 500 edged lower 5.57 points, last seen at 1155.14. The Nasdaq Composite trended lower by 10.89 points to 2044.89. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE CBOT Video! 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Wednesday. The NASDAQ gapped up on the open and traded to new highs for the year early in the session. However, a sell off ahead of the close due to profit taking led to a downside reversal on Wednesday. Additional weakness on Thursday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top has been posted. Short-term momentum indicators are diverging and turning neutral to bearish hinting that a top is in or near. The NASDAQ closed down 10.85 points at 2044.89. The March S&P 500 index posted a key reversal down on Wednesday ending 8.80 points lower at 1154.50. March is poised to test the Dec./Jan. uptrend line crossing near 1148.70 on Thursday. Closes below this uptrend line and last week's low at 1136.50 would confirm that a double top has been posted. The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as it tested broken fib resistance crossing at 10,094.10. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a test of the Dec./Jan. uptrend line crossing near 10,045 on Thursday. Closes below this support level would increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday due to a late- session short covering rebound. Today's high-range close leaves March poised to test the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 102-05. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a larger-degree rebound into the later part of January with December's high crossing at 105-06 being a potential target. Short-term momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed modestly higher on Wednesday as it remains above 2001's downtrend line and the 25% retracement level of the 2000/01 decline crossing at 195. Confirmation of this week's trendline breakout would open the door for a possible test of last September's high, which coincides with the 38% retracement level of the 2000/01 decline crossing at 202.52 later this winter. Strength in soybeans, cattle and precious metals underpinned today's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) signals that additional strength is possible. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Wednesday in responds to Tuesday's bearish API inventory reports. The latest API report showed that crude oil stocks for last week rose by 115,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 798,000 barrels and distillate stocks including heating oil rose by 5.682 million barrels. The increases in inventory indicate that demand remains weak in the face of weak U.S. and world economic conditions. February crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below December's uptrend line crossing near 20.40 thereby confirming that Monday's high marked a short-term top. Closes below last week's low crossing at 19.66 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the later part of January. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish from overbought levels signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely over the next few weeks. February heating oil plunged to new lows for the year on Wednesday and closes below last week's low of 55.20 thereby opening the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 50.70 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling additional weakness is possible near- term. I would not be surprised to see a steady to higher close on Thursday due to light short covering on ideas that today's sell off might have been overdone. February unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below December's uptrend line crossing near 60.10 thereby confirming that a top and trend change has been posted. While a short covering bounce is possible on Thursday and could lead to a test of December's broken uptrend line, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that additional weakness appears likely. Closes below last week's low at 57.20 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the later part of January. February Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Wednesday ahead of today's AGA inventory report. The mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Thursday barring a surprise in this week's AGA report. Closes below weekly support crossing at 2.17 would open the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 2.00 later this month. The daily ADX is in a bearish mode signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed modestly higher on Wednesday as it extends its rebound off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains near-term are possible. I would not be surprised to see a modest setback on Thursday after March filled the late-December gap at 117.78. The mid-range close hints that we could see some profit taking on Thursday. Longer-term March needs to close above 118.85 or below 116.00 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday and in doing so turned a number of short-term momentum indicators neutral to bearish thereby tempering the friendly outlook in the market. Close of .6020 could lead to a test of key support crossing at .5973 later this month. The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close thereby leaving Tuesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. Closes above last week's high crossing at .6290 are needed to confirm that a double bottom was posted in late-December. Momentum indicators are oversold but have not confirmed that a bottom is in place. The March Japanese Yen closed unchanged after spiking to a new contract low earlier in the session. Closes below monthly support crossing at .7558 would extend March's decline off September's high and set the stage for a test of long-term support crossing at .7210 later this winter. The daily ADX has turned sideways leaving the door open for additional weakness near-term. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it broke out to the topside of December's symmetrical triangle. Today's rally and close above November's reaction high crossing at 283.30 has left February poised to test the 50% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 284.60 possibly on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI returned to a bullish mode with today's breakout signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. March silver closed into new highs for the year on Wednesday falling just short of October's high crossing at 4.74 before profit taking tempered some of today's gains. If October's high at 4.74 is cleared, last September's high at 4.795 is a potential target later this winter. The ADX (a trend- following indicator) remains bullish signaling that additional strength is still possible. March copper closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed this week's rally. Producer and trade selling near Tuesday's highs limited today's gains despite fund related buying. This week's turnaround in fund related buying was triggered by ideas that the economy will see significant improvement during the coming year. The door is open for an eventual test of November's high crossing at 73.70. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Wednesday as it posted a potential key reversal down ahead of Thursday's export sales report. Session lows fell within a penny of the contract low before a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss. Additional pressure came from news that Mexico's soft drink industry has an informal agreement not to use high-fructose corn syrup as a sweetener in their products to avoid a new 20% tax. If this becomes reality, it would make a significant dent in U.S. corn exports to Mexico thereby resulting in increased carryout levels for 2002. I would not be surprised to see an inside day on Thursday barring a major bearish surprise in tomorrow's weekly export sales report. Closes above December's downtrend line crossing near 2.14 3/4 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. March wheat posted a downside reversal on Wednesday and closed below broken weekly resistance crossing at 3.04. Additional weakness on Thursday would confirm today's bearish reversal pattern thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top has likely been posted. Momentum indicators are overbought and turning neutral to bearish warning traders that a short-term top might be in or near. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans broke out above this fall's downtrend line crossing at 4.37 on Wednesday as weather forecasts for Southern Brazil remain hot and dry. Today's breakout confirmed that a seasonal bottom was posted last Wednesday. I am looking for sideways to higher prices into the later part of January barring a major bearish surprise in Friday's USDA reports. Thursday's export sales report is expected to be solid showing that world demand for U.S. soybeans remains strong. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. March soybean meal closed sharply higher on Wednesday thereby confirming yesterday's breakout and above this fall's downtrend line. Wednesday's high fell just short of testing initial fib resistance crossing at 150. I would not be surprised to see this resistance level tested on Thursday but I am looking for a steady to lower close ahead of Friday's USDA report. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that additional strength is possible for the balance of January. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs closed lower on Wednesday thereby confirming yesterday's key reversal down. The door is open for additional weakness with December's gap crossing at 53.22 being the next likely downside target later this month. Pressure from the Goldman roll and sharply lower belly prices weighed on February futures. Additional pressure came from lower cash bids. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the later part of January. February cattle posted a key reversal up on Wednesday falling just short of testing key resistance crossing at 71.35. Light profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. Today's rally was triggered by higher boxed beef prices and along with expectations for tighter spring cattle supplies. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral with today's strength while the ADX is moving into position to confirm the resumption of last fall's rally. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee gapped up and closed above trading range resistance crossing at 50 cents on Wednesday. Fund buying was the driving factor behind today's rally as the door is open for additional short covering gains later this month. Wednesday's high-range close leaves the door open for follow-through buying on Thursday as the door has been opened for a likely test of November's high crossing at 53.00 cents later this winter. March cocoa posted an upside reversal on Wednesday after session lows fell just short of testing broken resistance crossing at 1365. Additional strength on Thursday along with closes above this week's high at 1415 are needed to confirm the recent breakout above this fall's trading range. If the rally resumes, weekly resistance crossing at 1422, then monthly resistance crossing at 1508 are potential targets later this winter. March sugar gapped up and closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it tested last August's reaction high crossing at 804. March sugar has rallied into Thursday's time turn as momentum indicators have become overbought hinting that a short-term top might be near. If Thursday's time turn proves to be an acceleration in the uptrend, fib resistance crossing at 830 is March's next target. March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close due to light profit taking ahead of Thursday's weekly export sales report on Wednesday. Traders remembered last week's disappoint sales report and appears to be a little gun shy going into Thursday's report. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If Thursday's export sales report proves to be neutral to friendly, March could try and test November's high at 39.80 ahead of Friday's USDA report. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ NFA to provide regulatory services for Island Futures Exchange, LLC http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27694 OneChicago Appoints Robert Walsh MD Of Operations http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27693 ISE Trades 75-Millionth Contract http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27692 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS KCH2 Coffee 'C' Mar 2002 50.85 2.35 +4.84 AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.610 0.169 +3.83 GCZ3 Gold Dec 2003 292.5 10.7 +3.79 SMF2 Soybean Meal Jan 2002 153.3 3.9 +2.61 SBH2 Sugar #11 World Mar 2002 8.03 0.20 +2.56 XEH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 148.9 3.5 +2.41 OJN2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jul 2002 92.85 2.10 +2.29 SIH3 Silver Mar 2003 4.702 0.099 +2.13 HGU2 Copper Sep 2002 0.7315 0.0135 +1.86 LBN2 Random Length Lumber Jul 2002 274.50 4.50 +1.67 LOSERS HOJ2 Heating Oil Apr 2002 0.5469 -0.0296 -5.16 CLG2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Feb 2002 20.18 -1.02 -4.80 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.5806 -0.0289 -4.74 PNH2 Propane Mar 2002 0.2875 -0.0125 -4.17 OH2 Oats Mar 2002 195 3/4 -8 -3.93 PBG2 Frozen Pork Bellies Feb 2002 74.800 -3.000 -3.86 QLX2 Central Appalachian Coal Nov 2002 27.25 -1.00 -3.54 NGQ2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Aug 2002 2.517 -0.080 -3.13 GIF2 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Jan 2002 169.75 -4.70 -2.69 OJF2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jan 2002 91.25 -2.25 -2.41 FREE: Vantagepoint Market Software Reports Predict The Markets With Up To 80% Accuracy http://www.ino.com/specials/mkttech/vantagepoint.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS SNIC SONIC SOLUTIONS 7.9550 2.2700 +40.61 MRAE MIRAE CORP ADS 5.2000 1.5000 +37.04 TASRW TASER INTERNATIONAL WTS 5/06 8.9200 2.2500 +33.28 IOMT ISOMET CORP 6.7000 1.3200 +25.14 TASR TASER INTERNATIONAL 17.7500 3.1500 +21.58 SMMX SYMYX TECHNOLOGIES 26.7500 4.2500 +19.02 TMN TRANSMEDIA NETWORK INC 5.15 0.79 +17.56 SGMO SANGAMO BIOSCIENCES 10.2000 1.4600 +16.11 EPNY E.PIPHANY INC 9.9100 1.3400 +15.95 UAXS UNIVERSAL ACCESS GLOBAL HLDGS 5.3500 0.7100 +15.33 LOSERS BREL BIORELIANCE CORP 22.0800 -10.4700 -31.95 CVST COVISTA COMM INC 6.3590 -2.2100 -27.97 BCGI BOSTON COMMUNICATIONS GRP 7.6300 -2.0800 -21.44 JCBSG JACOBSON STORES INC 6.75% DEB 9.0000 -3.0000 -18.75 AV AVAYA INC 10.35 -2.12 -17.00 IMCO IMPCO TECHNOLOGIES 12.4100 -2.4307 -16.29 INFA INFORMATICA CORP 11.3700 -1.8800 -14.20 BYBI BACK YARD BURGERS 6.3700 -1.0200 -13.92 DTHK DIGITALTHINK INC 9.3000 -1.5000 -13.72 IMCL IMCLONE SYSTEMS 31.8500 -4.9400 -13.41 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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