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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST W E D N E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index has retreated 0.38 points to 186.93. The US Dollar Index gained 0.10 points to 119.72. The Dow Industrials climbed 144.89 points, at 9762.86, while the S&P 500 moved higher by 12.93 points, last seen at 1113.57. The Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 20.45 points to 1913.44. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE 2002 Commodity Reference Calendar http://www.ino.com/specials/rjo/calendar.html _____________________________________________________________________ ACCURATELY FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS WITH 'TURNING POINT' _____________________________________________________________________ Trading Champion Joe Duffy Reveals Methods... http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWTPA-TurningPoint Dear Andrew: Joe Duffy has uncovered a tremendous discovery relating to price, time and market movements. This discovery permits you to pinpoint to the day when a price trend will change direction... ...allowing you to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. ? Forecast the upcoming high and low - accurate in both price and time! ? Calculate the projected target price of the next swing - often, within 2 ticks! ? Calculate the projected critical swing time, usually within 5 minutes! ? Predict when a large move will far surpass the basic target point. ? Generate exact prices for up to five successive target pivot point. SPECIAL LIMITED TIME RE-RELEASE! Learn more about this startling discovery: http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWTPA-TurningPoint <a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWTPA-TurningPoint"<Pinpoint Market Moves!</a< Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday in a delayed reaction to the Fed.'s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for now. The market interpreted this inaction on the part of the Fed as a sign that economic recovery is beginning. At the same time, gains were limited as investors remain suspicious about accounting irregularities in business following the Enron debacle. The NASDAQ fell short of testing the 38% retracement level of the September- January rally crossing at 1826.96 before a short covering rally triggered by a delayed response to today's decision by the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged pulled the index into positive territory on the day. The NASDAQ closed up 20.45 points at 1913.44. The March S&P 500 index also closed higher on Wednesday after spiking below the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 1087.97. Additional strength on Thursday is needed to confirm today's upside reversal thereby increasing the odds that a short- term bottom has been posted. The March S&P 500 closed up 15.00 points at 1115.50. The Dow posted an upside reversal on Wednesday and closed above broken fib support crossing at 9706.20. However, closes above Monday's high at 9908.10 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the Dow. Today's rally was in reaction to the Fed.'s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for the time being, which indicates that it believes a recovery has begun in the economy. Solid gains in Home Depot, Wal-Mart, Honeywell and IBM led the late-session rally in the Dow. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday following the Fed.'s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in today's FOMC meeting. However, the Fed left its easing bias in place should further stimulus be needed to shore up the economy. The late-day sell off sets the stage for additional weakness in access trading that could lead to a test of broken trendline resistance crossing near 102-00 on Thursday. Short-term momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term as the market is caught between business accounting concerns and prospects for an improving economy. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed lower on Wednesday pressured by weakness in grains, some precious metals, fiber and energies. The CRB index is closing in on the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally, which crosses at 185.93. If this support level fails to halt this month's decline, the door would be open for a possible test of last fall's low crossing at 182.83 later this winter. Short-term momentum indicators are oversold but indicate that additional weakness is possible near-term. However, weekly indicators are on the verge of rolling over, which would increase the odds that the CRB could ultimately breakout below the double bottom on the monthly chart later this year. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Wednesday following the release of this week's API inventory reports, which were termed bearish. Crude oil stocks rose by 27,000 barrels last week, as total stocks are now some 11% above year-ago levels. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.743 million barrels although distillate stocks including heating oil fell by 150,000 barrels but supplies are still 25% above year ago levels. Traders will be closely watching this week's DOE inventory report for corroboration of rising energy inventories. The AGA inventory report for natural gas will be released later today. March crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below minor trendline support thereby confirming that a short-term top was posted on Monday. The door is open for a possible challenge of January's low crossing at 18.45 in early- February. Closes below this support level could lead to an eventual test of November's low crossing at 17.55 later this winter. Momentum indicators such as stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish with this week setback hinting that a test of fall lows is possible later this year. March heating oil closed lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's mildly bearish inventory report. Today's low fell short of testing the lower boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 51.20. Closes below this support level would confirm a range breakout and could lead to a test of weekly support crossing at 49.30 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish with this week's sell off signaling that we could see a spike to new contract lows before a low is posted. March unleaded gas extended this week's sell off on Wednesday following Tuesday's bearish API inventory report. Today's sell off sets the stage for a possible test of last fall's uptrend line crossing near 55.55. Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible challenge of last fall's low crossing at 51.90 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish once again and signals that a new low for the year is possible in the near future. March Henry Hub natural gas closed modestly higher on Wednesday due to short covering ahead of the release of today's AGA inventory report. This week's AGA inventory report showed a draw of 111 bcf last week as U.S. working gas in storage is 70% full. Traders are calling the report bearish. However, the sell off from mid-January has already discounted some of this bearish news. A higher close on Thursday would confirm this analysis while leaving the door open for a possible short covering bounce into early- February. If the decline continues, weekly support crossing at 1.76 is March's next target later this winter. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar posted an upside reversal on Wednesday thereby ending the one-day setback off Monday's high. The door remains open for a resumption of this winter's rally and a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 121.29 later this week. Today's rally was supported by revised fourth-quarter GDP estimates. Additional support was due to expectations for further improvement in the economy although some of the expected recovery has already been priced into the Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought hinting at the very least that we could see a brief pause near current prices. The March Swiss Franc posted a potential downside reversal on Wednesday signaling a likely end to this week's short covering bounce. The stage is set for additional weakness and a likely test of December's low crossing at .5797 later this winter. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is likely. The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday however, it failed to close above the previous reaction high crossing at .6300. Closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm this week's trendline breakout and that a bottom has been posted. Stochastics are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into mid-February. The March Japanese Yen extended this week's short covering rebound on Wednesday and spiked above broken weekly support crossing at .7558. Closes above this broken support level and last fall's downtrend line crossing near .7590 are needed to confirm a bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-February. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed slightly higher on Wednesday due to short covering following the Fed.'s decision to hold the line in interest rates for the time being. February gold is challenging minor resistance crossing at 282. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a test of broken trendline support crossing near 284.10. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term bottom is in or near. March silver closed modestly lower on Wednesday leaving Tuesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. Momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near following this week's test of the 75% retracement level crossing at 4.22. Closes above broken fib support crossing at 4.32 are needed before a low can be confirmed. March copper drifted lower on Wednesday and appears poised to test the bottom of last week's trading range crossing at 69.20 later this week. Closes below last week's low crossing at 69.20 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during February.. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early February. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed fractionally lower on Wednesday as session lows came with in a penny of weekly support crossing that crosses at 2.04 1/4. Light pressure came from spillover weakness from wheat, concerns over sluggish export demand and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar today. Trader's will closely watching Thursday's export sales report for signs that foreign demand might be picking up. Bulls continue to suggest that this year's export sales will be backend loaded. In the meantime, there is little incentive for foreign customers or domestic end users to shift their buying pattern from hand to mouth as prices continue to erode from last July's high. Seasonally, corn prices tend to decline into February when a mid-winter low is due to be posted. The current decline suggests that the February low might be posted early in the month if weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 halts the decline. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish but have entered their respective oversold zones hinting that a low might be near. March wheat gapped down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday as much needed precip has fallen across the southern Plains. The bearish weather triggered another round of fund selling that pressured the market to new lows for month, which fell just short of testing the late-December low crossing at 2.83. If this support level fails to halt this month's decline, a test of the December low crossing at 2.77 is likely by early-February. Recent strength in the U.S. Dollar has made U.S. wheat less competitive on the world market especially since Argentina is resuming wheat exports. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely into early-February. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans posted an inside day with a fractionally higher close on Wednesday. Light support was due to short covering triggered by ideas that soybean prices have become oversold and too cheap. However, upside potential appears limited due to improving weather conditions across South America and a narrowing window of opportunity to export on the world market without competing with South American exports. Technically, March soybeans continue to consolidate above the 75% retracement level of January's rally, which crosses at 4.24 3/4. Closes below this support level would more than likely open the door for a test of this month's low crossing at 4.15 3/4 by early-February. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely into early-February before a mid-winter low is due to be posted. March soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday however, a short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss. March continues to hover above gap support crossing at 147.90 and below this the 75% retracement level of January's rally crossing at 147. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible into early-February. While Thursday's export sales report is expected to show strong sales, this is old news to a market, which has been focused on South America's potentially record crop for most of the winter. Now that South American weather is improving, there is little incentive for new buying to enter the market. Therefore I am looking for additional weakness into mid-February and a possible test of January's low of 142 before a bottom is finally posted. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs posted a key reversal up and closed above weekly resistance crossing at 61.13 on Wednesday. Today's rally was triggered by ideas that packers could encounter a short-term supply squeeze, which could be exaggerated by the winter snowstorm that is moving across portions of the Midwest today and could last into Thursday bringing with it up to 10 inches of snow in places. However, today's rally was limited due to forecasts calling for steady to 50-cent lower cash bids on Thursday. With packer margins shrinking due to falling product prices, it is unlikely that they will be very aggressive with their cash bids. However, traders might decide to ignore the short-term bearish cash fundamentals and opt to trade the short-term friendly technicals near- term. Closes above the contract high crossing at 61.90 would renew April's rally off last fall's low and could lead to a test of weekly resistance crossing at 63.60 later this winter. Momentum indicators are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible into early-February. April cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday as a winter storm across the Plains and portions of the Midwest sparked additional short covering. However, today's rally was stopped in its tracks as it neared the 75% retracement level of last year's decline, which crosses at 76.00. After rallying for the past three days, I would not be surprised to see a round of profit taking on Thursday as April might try to consolidate recent gains below this resistance level. If this resistance level is cleared, we could see April test the lower boundary of last summer's trading range crossing at 77.10 later this winter. Momentum indicators are bullish but diverging, which is a warning to bulls that a short-term top might be near. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed higher on Wednesday due to light short covering following Tuesday's spike to a new contract low. However, short covering faded ahead of the close, which allowed prices to drift towards the bottom of today's trading range. March is at a crossroads as it is challenging the lower boundary of this winter's trading range. The latest report from the Association of Coffee Producing Countries highlighted the market's negative fundamental outlook as it forecasted a 15-million 60-kilogram bag surplus in export supplies for the 2001-02 marketing year. Closes below trading range support crossing at 44.75 would confirm a breakout while opening the door for a test of psychological support crossing at 40-cents later this winter. March cocoa posted its highest close in two and a half weeks on Wednesday due to renewed trade and speculator buying. Light support came from reports of a police strike in the Ivory Coast, limited hedge pressure and technical buying as buy stops were triggered above 1368. However, the choppy rebound off the early-January low is an indication that the market continues to mark time as a distribution top continues to form. Closes above 1422 or below 1260 are needed to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. March sugar extended this month's decline and closed below last November's reaction low crossing at 661 on Wednesday. Multiple closes below this support level would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of last October's low crossing at 611 during February. Momentum indicators have entered their respective oversold zones but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. March cotton broke out below minor support marked by last week's low at 35.95 on Wednesday thereby renewing its decline off January's double top. The stage is set for a likely test of the lower boundary of this winter's trading range, which crosses at 34.91. Light pressure came from increased producer selling. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into early-February. Closes above 39.80 or below 34.91 are needed to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Pacific Exchange To Trade Options on Anthem, Inc. http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27744 OneChicago Appoints International Business Director http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27743 Deutsche Borse Introduces 13 New Index Funds http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27742 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS CLQ2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Aug 2002 19.99 0.86 +4.25 OH2 Oats Mar 2002 202 1/2 8 +4.11 LBX2 Random Length Lumber Nov 2002 276.10 9.80 +3.55 CCZ3 Cocoa Dec 2003 1200 28 +2.39 YGZ2 Mini NY Gold Dec 2002 290.5 5.5 +1.93 PBN2 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2002 78.700 1.450 +1.88 DJH2 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Mar 2002 9770 171 +1.78 ZDH2 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Mar 2002 9774 171 +1.78 SPH3 S&P 500 Mar 2003 1114.90 17.00 +1.52 YJM2 Mini Dow Jones Industrial Jun 2002 9750 143 +1.49 LOSERS SBK2 Sugar #11 World May 2002 5.98 -0.24 -3.87 PNN2 Propane Jul 2002 0.3000 -0.0100 -3.23 LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 272.00 -8.80 -3.13 CTH2 Cotton Mar 2002 35.52 -0.99 -2.71 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.5531 -0.0149 -2.63 RAM2 South African Rand Jun 2002 0.083000 -0.001950 -2.30 HOG2 Heating Oil Feb 2002 0.5091 -0.0115 -2.21 CLH2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Mar 2002 19.08 -0.43 -2.20 RRN2 Rough Rice Jul 2002 4.180 -0.080 -1.88 GIJ2 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Apr 2002 167.70 -3.10 -1.82 FREE: Vantagepoint Market Software Reports Predict The Markets With Up To 80% Accuracy http://www.ino.com/specials/mkttech/vantagepoint.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS CROS CROSSMANN COMMUNITIES 44.4800 14.3800 +47.57 HPLA HPL TECHNOLOGIES 15.9900 3.5000 +28.00 CNC-H CONSECO FIN VII PFD H TOPRS 10.30 1.98 +23.57 CNC-G CONSECO FIN TR VI 9.00%'TOPRS' 9.66 1.78 +22.39 DGIN DIGITAL INSIGHT 24.3300 4.4500 +22.36 CNC-V CONSECO FIN TR V 8.70%'TOPRS' 9.70 1.74 +21.86 ISWI INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS WORLDWIDE 5.9400 0.9300 +18.98 FIMG FISCHER IMAGING 10.4900 1.6000 +17.78 RLRN RENAISSANCE LEARNING INC 34.6500 4.7600 +16.30 DDIC DDI CORP 10.4700 1.4400 +15.93 LOSERS ELN+B ELAN CORP PLC WTS CL B 12.05 -6.55 -43.09 CCRT COMPUCREDIT CORP 5.2200 -3.7600 -42.49 CNET CNET NETWORKS INC 5.7000 -1.7800 -23.58 SFNT SAFENET INC 14.2500 -3.3200 -19.11 CDA CORDIANT COMMUNIC GRPADS 5.58 -1.22 -18.21 ELN ELAN CORP ADS 29.25 -5.81 -16.51 DRIV DIGITAL RIVER 17.7300 -3.3000 -15.78 ACTT ACT TELECONFERENCING 5.7000 -0.9600 -14.77 TOM TOMMY HILFIGER CORP 12.65 -2.21 -14.61 RCCC RURAL CELLULAR 'A' 9.5900 -1.5310 -14.50 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2002 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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