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WELCOME - Vol. 6 No. 49
TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update ====================================================== Welcome ! For new and old subscribers, there is an Archive Section on our website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html It lists the original copy of each of our research reports, at the time of publication. ============================================================= PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS =========================== INVESTOOLS ========== FREE REPORT: 10 Stocks To Help You Make It All Back! Still listening to Wall Street's bears? They want you out of the way while they grab today's once-in-a-decade bargains. Don Rowe says investors now have a chance to double their wealth. Get 10 leaders of this new bull market! FREE report: http://www.investools.com/c/go/WALL/SR-wallTW2?s=S600 INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY - FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL OFFER ===================================================== FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL to America's Fastest Growing Newspaper and the FREE VIDEOTAPE "Maximizing Your Success." CLICK http://ibd.infostreet.com/cgi-bin/freeoffer.cgi?source=ALA1GE2 NO CREDIT CARD INFORMATION REQUIRED ============================================================ This is a text only copy that should be fairly well formatted for most e-mail programs. For those of you that would prefer an easier to read format, simply click on the link to our website, and if you want, print a copy. http://www.stockresearch.com/weekecon.html ============================================================ WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: December 29, 2001 Prior Week in Review: Financial Market Highlights: ============================ 12/28/01 12/21/01 %Change S&P 500 1,161.02 1,144.89 +1.41% Dow Jones 10,136.99 10,035.34 +1.01% NASD Comp 1,987.26 1,945.73 +2.13% Russell 2000 493.62 484.02 +1.98% SOX Index 538.79 520.58 +3.50% Value Line 372.10 362.90 +2.54% MS Growth 568.96 567.41 +.27% MS Cyclical 535.61 523.39 +2.34% T - Bill 1.68% 1.66% +2 BP Long Bond 5.54% 5.46% +8 BP Gold - Oz-Near Month $276.80 $278.30 -$1.50 Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.50 $4.47 +$.03 Economic News: ============== Economic Reports Last Week Were Uniformly Positive Nice Ending For 2001 - Bodes Well For 2002 Recovery Spring Recovery More And More Likely - A Good Bet *November Durable Goods Orders fell -4.8% - Ex volatile transportation sector orders rose +1.1% *Jobless Claims rose +7,000 to 392,000 - Four Week Moving Average fell -25,250 to 413,250 *December Consumer Confidence rose to 93.7 - See Below *November Existing Home Sales rose +.6% to 5.21 mil rate *New Home Sales in November rose +6.4% - See Below Last week's economic reports were uniformly positive, and given that a few of them are truly "forward looking", the implications for 2002 are getting better and better. When combined with the prior week's reports, we are becoming more and more confident, barring an exogenous event, that an economic recovery will be underway by Spring. Perhaps Ed Hyman is right - it may have already begun. Longer term readers know that we place a lot of importance on the outlook for the consumer, given that consumer spending drives approximately two thirds of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Naturally, we were particularly pleased, then, that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey confirmed the nice gain in the Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Index that we reported last week. However, there is a "but." The "but" is the disconnect between the sharp increases in sentiment and the soft holiday selling season. True there was a late inning rally, and yes a major discounter reported recent weekly sales at the top end of their target, but the overall selling season was sloppy, and driven by price. One rationale might be that consumers are somewhat concerned about the labor market, given the rise in the unemployment rate and the recent lackluster gains in personal income. To us this would be a plausible explanation, and implies that sluggishness will continue for a while longer. However, the Durable Goods report, without the volatile transportation sector, has now improved for two consecutive months - not eternity by any standard, but it does imply that the pressure on the beleaguered manufacturing sector is ending. If so, then there will be a lagged response favorably impacting both jobs and income. While the housing market was also strong, we again caution that in our view the strength is overstated given November's warm weather. Simply put, more people can shop for a house in nice weather than poor weather. More shoppers, low rates equals more sales. Simple as that. But still there are some positive implications as the supply of new homes on the market is the smallest in almost a year. Overall, then, a pretty good ending to 2001. And, as you know, our view is for a recovery to be underway by Spring. But, the war against terrorism is not over, and may in fact be expanded, and even without an exogenous event the slope of the recovery is far from certain. So, enjoy the New Year Holiday as we look forward to 2002. Stay tuned ! Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: ========================================= Monday: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Tuesday: NEW YEARS DAY HOLIDAY - FINANCIAL MARKETS CLOSED Wednesday: National Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index, Construction Spending Thursday: Jobless Claims Friday: Labor Department Employment Report Fresh Money Buys: ================= In response to subscriber feedback, we have established this section to highlight recommendations from our list that we believe are the most attractively priced currently. We will limit the selections to three each week, even as our list of recommendations changes. American Int'l Group (AIG) $80.22 Fannie Mae (FNM) $79.79 Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $40.40 Original reports from the time of recommendation, are available on our Website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html You may obtain a "second opinion" from VectorVest, a service that provides limited access free so you may try their service at: http://www.stockresearch.com/vv.html We will not track the performance of this list as we are already monitoring the original recommendations. Hope this helps. ************************************************************** INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE ================================== For everyone who has enjoyed reading our newsletter but has not had the $200,000 required for our personal, individual, asset management services, we have an incredible announcement to make: Green Mountain Asset Management Corp. and BridgePortfolio.com of Chicago, IL have created an alliance where you can now invest in the Green Mountain Asset Growth Portfolio through BridgePortfolio with a low minimum of $10,000. Your individual account will be set up at Schwab Institutional, which gives you 24 hr. web access. Green Mountain Asset, as a sub-advisor, will instruct BridgePortfolio what to buy and sell. BridgePortfolio.com, as your investment advisor, will execute trades on your behalf only in accordance with our instructions. Simple as that! Click here for more details. http://www.bridgeportfolio.com/index.asp?RelCode=GM4005VT Or call 800-610-8882 Monday thru Friday-9:00 am-5:00 pm CST ************************************************************** CLASSIFIED ADS ============== PARIS VACATION RENTALS - Apartment on Historic Ile Saint Louis Better Plan Ahead - Only One Month Left For 2002 http://www.paris-vacation-rental.com JACK: STRAIGHT FROM THE GUT - By Jack Welch - Only $17.97-Save 40% http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0446528382/greenmountainass NO BULL: MY LIFE IN AND OUT OF MARKETS - Michael Steinhardt-$20.96 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471181528/greenmountainass THE THEORY OF INVESTMENT VALUE - John Burr Williams - Only $29.95 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/087034126X/greenmountainass BASIC ECONOMICS: A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO THE ECONOMY - Only $21.00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/046508138x/greenmountainass ************************************************************** SURVEY ====== It would really help us if you would take our brief survey, so that we have a better understanding of our users and so that we can sell targeted advertising, which keeps our services free to you. A benefit to you and us. So, please take just two minutes to fill out a 13 question survey. There is no information requested to identify you personally as our only interest is in the aggregate data. Thank you very much for your help ! http://38.148.250.3/cgi-win/client.exe?readers,welcome,ad1321a,2000 To return here, after you have completed the survey, File Close works better than the method suggested at the survey site. ************************************************************** As we continue to build both our Newsletter and our Website, we welcome your feedback, so please feel free to e-mail me at: mailto:bobbose@stockresearch.com To UNSUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-off@mail-list.com Be sure to use the e-mail address from which you subscribed. To SUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-on@mail-list.com To CHANGE, put either your new or old e-mail address in the subject line and the other address in the from line and send to: timely-invest-change@mail-list.com DISCLAIMER: =========== The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in the material. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. The information is obtained from internal and external sources which we consider reliable but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you to any changes in figures or our views. We, our employees, clients, and or officers and directors, may from time to time have a long or short position in the securities mentioned and may sell or buy such securities. -- Bob Bose Green Mtn. Asset Mgt. Corp., 139 Bank Street, Burlington, VT 05401 FREE Investment Newsletter - http://www.stockresearch.com FREE Trial Investor's Business Daily http://www.stockresearch.com/ibdform.html 800 - 385- 2673 / 802 - 658 - 7806 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To subscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-on@mail-list.com To unsubscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-off@mail-list.com To change your email address, send a message to timely-invest-change@mail-list.com with the other address in the Subject: line This message was launched into cyberspace to alewis@ect.enron.com
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