Enron Mail

From:timely-invest@mail-list.com
To:alewis@enron.com
Subject:Weekly Economic Update
Cc:
Bcc:
Date:Sat, 2 Jun 2001 04:58:46 -0700 (PDT)

WELCOME - Vol. 6 No. 22

TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update
======================================================

Welcome !

For new and old subscribers, there is an Archive Section
on our website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html
It lists the original copy of each of our research reports,
updates to those reports, and articles that we have published.

Also, if you haven't already done so, we would appreciate it
if you would take our survey at the end of this email - after
the Classified Ads. Thanks.

=============================================================

PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS
===========================

INVESTOOLS
==========

Blood Is Running In The Streets! Buy These 10 Tech Bargains!

Investors' mad dash for the exits spells 'opportunity' to Al
Frank. He's done it before (Dell +2,996%, Fannie Mae
+4,096%...) And now he's doing it again! 10 booming BARGAIN
techs, all with SOLID fundamentals. FREE 30-day trial:

http://www.investools.com/c/go/PRUD/SR-prudTH2?s=S601


INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY - FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL OFFER
=====================================================

FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL to America's Fastest Growing Newspaper
and the FREE VIDEOTAPE "Maximizing Your Success." CLICK

http://ibd.infostreet.com/cgi-bin/freeoffer.cgi?source=ALA1GE2

NO CREDIT CARD INFORMATION REQUIRED


============================================================

This is a text only copy that should be fairly well
formatted for most e-mail programs. For those of you
that would prefer an easier to read format, simply click
on the link to our website, and if you want, print a copy.

http://www.stockresearch.com/weekecon.html

================================================================

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: June 2, 2001

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

06/01/01 05/25/01 %Change

S&P 500 1,260.67 1,277.89 -1.35%
Dow Jones 10,990.41 11,005.37 -.14%
NASD Comp 2,149.44 2,251.03 -4.51%
Russell 2000 501.72 508.62 -1.36%
SOX Index 617.60 654.64 -5.66%
Value Line 406.99 413.63 -1.61%
MS Growth 568.75 564.76 +.71%
MS Cyclical 562.79 562.88 -.02%
T - Bill 3.54% 3.57% -3 BP
Long Bond 5.71% 5.84% -13 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $268.00 $277.90 -$9.90
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.42 $4.56 -$.14


Economic News:
==============

Recent Economic Reports Mostly Quite Positive
Economy Bouncing Along Bottom - Confidence Recovers
Our View Remains - No Recession, Second Half Recovery

*Q1 GDP revised downward to +1.3% - Prior week's report
*April Personal Income rose +.3% - Spending rose +.4%
*May Consumer Confidence rose to 115.5 from April's 109.9
*Jobless Claims up +8,000 to 419,000 - Four Week
Moving Average drops -1,500 to 402,500
*Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for May 38.7 -
Essentially unchanged from April's 38.9
*April Construction Spending rose +.3%
*Nat'l Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 42.1
From April's 43.2
*Labor Department Employment Report
- Unemployment Rate eases to 4.4%
- Nonfarm Payrolls fell -19,000
- Average Hourly Earnings rose +.3% to $14.26
- Average Workweek rose +.1/hr to 34.3/hr


Virtually all the recent economic reports have been quite
good, implying economic conditions are not getting worse,
and setting up the economy for a recovery later this year.
However, we are still concerned that the FOMC (Federal Open
Market Committee) may have been too aggressive, so we still
believe that inflation risks are greater than consensus
expectations. But near term, the outlook is improving.

Perhaps the "key" report was the fairly good gain in
consumer confidence for May. As most of you know, consumer
spending drives approximately two thirds of economic activity.
Our view has long been that if consumers have confidence,
and the wherewithal, they will spend. Both conditions are
currently positive, and while we would be the first to admit
that one report is not a trend, it is nonetheless an
encouraging bit of information.

In addition, it also has implications for FOMC policy. As
we have noted several times, the FOMC was worried about
consumer confidence, driven by a negative "wealth effect."
We have never been big believers in the "wealth effect" -
negative or otherwise. But the FOMC believes, and that's
what counts. However, if consumer confidence continues to
hold up, then the FOMC will likely be less aggressive in
lowering rates.

While the labor market is still clearly soft, the improvement
in the unemployment rate and the positive revisions to recent
data suggest that deteriorating labor market conditions should
not erode consumer sentiment. However, all was not positive
in Friday's Labor Department report.

Consider the following year-over-year comparisons of increases
in average hourly earnings.

Jan '01 4.00%
Feb 4.21%
Mar 4.35%
Apr 4.25%
May 4.47%


This looks very much like a trend to me, and is the primary
reason that in my opinion consensus inflationary expectations
are too low, as productivity "gains" during the first quarter
were non-existent.

The point I had made in earlier issues, in my opinion, remains
valid, and worth repeating. The FOMC is making a very, very big
bet. And that bet is that they can jump start economic growth,
and that productivity growth will pickup sharply as economic
growth resumes, and that reduced pressures in the labor markets
will moderate gains in unit labor costs. In my view, this is a
lot that has to go right - with almost perfect timing.

It's not that I don't think this scenario won't play out, it's
just that my concerns are that it won't play out perfectly. My
forecast remains for a second half recovery continuing into 2002,
and that should reignite productivity growth. But, economic
growth of 3.0% may only produce productivity gains of, say 2%.
And, if pressures in the labor markets don't abate, as the
economy recovers, inflationary expectations will rise.

In short, near term the news remains positive as the probabilities
for economic recovery improve. But, risks remain in my view -
just not the risks most investors are worrying about. Stay tuned !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================

Monday:
Tuesday: Final Q1 Productivity, Factory Orders
Wednesday:
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Consumer Credit
Friday:



Fresh Money Buys:
=================

In response to subscriber feedback, we have established this
section to highlight recommendations from our list that we
believe are the most attractively priced currently. We will
limit the selections to three each week, even as our list of
recommendations grows.

American International Group (AIG) $80.09
Automatic Data Proc. (ADP) $54.65
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $42.81



Full reports, and updates, are available on our Website at:

http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html


We will not track the performance of this list as we are
already monitoring the original recommendations. Hope this helps.

******************************************************************

INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE
==================================

For everyone who has enjoyed reading our newsletter but has
not had the $200,000 required for our personal, individual,
asset management services, we have an incredible announcement
to make: Green Mountain Asset Management Corp. and
BridgePortfolio.com of Chicago, IL have created an alliance
where you can now invest in the Green Mountain Asset Growth
Portfolio through BridgePortfolio with a low minimum of $10,000.
Your individual account will be set up at Schwab Institutional,
which gives you 24 hr. web access. Green Mountain Asset, as a
sub-advisor, will instruct BridgePortfolio what to buy and sell.
BridgePortfolio.com, as your investment advisor, will execute
trades on your behalf only in accordance with our instructions.
Simple as that! Click here for more details.

http://www.bridgeportfolio.com/index.asp?RelCode=GM4005VT

Or call 800-610-8882 Monday through Friday - 9:00 am-5:00 pm CST


******************************************************************

CLASSIFIED ADS
==============

PARIS VACATION RENTALS - Apartment on Historic Ile Saint Louis
Also, Now Accepting "Indications of Interest" For 2002
http://www.paris-vacation-rental.com

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR - Ben Graham - $24.00 - A True Classic
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060155477/greenmountainass

BASIC ECONOMICS: A CITIZEN'S GUIDE TO THE ECONOMY - Only $24.00
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/046508138x/greenmountainass

THE ESSENTIAL WARREN BUFFETT - Robert Hagstrom - $22.36
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/047138979x/greenmountainass


******************************************************************

SURVEY
======

It would really help us if you would take our brief survey, so
that we have a better understanding of our users and so that
we can sell targeted advertising, which keeps our services free
to you. A benefit to you and us. So, please take just two
minutes to fill out a 13 question survey. There is no informa-
tion requested to identify you personally as our only interest
is in the aggregate data. Thank you very much for your help !

http://38.148.250.3/cgi-win/client.exe?readers,welcome,ad1321a,2000

To return here, after you have completed the survey, File Close
works better than the method suggested at the survey site.

******************************************************************

As we continue to build both our Newsletter and our Website, we
welcome your feedback, so please feel free to e-mail me at:
mailto:bobbose@stockresearch.com

To UNSUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to:
timely-invest-off@mail-list.com
Be sure to use the e-mail address from which you subscribed.

To SUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to:
timely-invest-on@mail-list.com

To CHANGE, put either your new or old e-mail address in the
subject line and the other address in the from line and send to:
timely-invest-change@mail-list.com

DISCLAIMER:
===========

The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes
and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any
security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the
securities, markets, or developments referred to in the material.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.
The information is obtained from internal and external sources
which we consider reliable but we have not independently verified
such information and we do not guarantee that it is accurate or
complete. We do not undertake to advise you to any changes in
figures or our views. We, our employees, clients, and or
officers and directors, may from time to time have a long or
short position in the securities mentioned and may sell or buy
such securities.




--
Bob Bose
Green Mtn. Asset Mgt. Corp., 139 Bank Street, Burlington, VT 05401
FREE Investment Newsletter - http://www.stockresearch.com
FREE Trial Investor's Business Daily
http://www.stockresearch.com/ibdform.html
800 - 385- 2673 / 802 - 658 - 7806




----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To subscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-on@mail-list.com
To unsubscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-off@mail-list.com
To change your email address, send a message to timely-invest-change@mail-list.com
with the other address in the Subject: line



This message was launched into cyberspace to alewis@enron.com