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from Gilder Publishing THE FRIDAY LETTER e-mailed weekly, for friends and subscribers =================================== | http://www.gilder.com/ | Issue 34.0/November 16, 2001 HEADLINES: * The Week/ Capital Crisis * Friday Feature/ Who Authorized This? * Friday Bonus/ Intel's Accidental Revolution * Telecosm V Tapes * Poll Question/ Military Tribunals * Readings * Subscribe / Unsubscribe Information OFF NEXT WEEK Due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, the Friday Letter will not publish next week. If you're looking for our news and views after the big turkey day, then visit http://www.NFL.com/, that's where we'll be. Enjoy your Holiday, The Friday Letter Staff ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE WEEK/ Capital Crisis By Bret Swanson "What mainly ails the U.S. economy is too much of a good thing," intones Princeton economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman. "Excess capacity," too much capital, "is a drag on investment, and hence a drag on the economy as a whole." Business investment will rebound, he casually assumes, but to solve the investment problem in the meantime we should "promote spending." Leo Hindery, Jr., the former CEO of Global Crossing, an international fiber optic network, agrees. "The problem with overcapacity is, it doesn't just ravage (profit and loss statements), but it ravages banks and employment," he told Bloomberg. "Tax cuts that make me more wealthy are absurd...So I'm more interested in consumption rising almost everywhere." Why do we hear this common refrain from friends on both the left and the right, from politicians, businessmen, and even most economists? It seems Alan Greenspan's irrational exuberance stuck in our brains and was never purged by the evidence of real productivity gains and wealth creation in the late 1990s. Now, with the economy more than a year into a slowdown, Washington and Wall Street have seized on the agile chairman's permission to blame business first. The problem with Paul and Leo's take is, scarcely anything but investment and entrepreneurship matter to future growth. Find out how, read the entire article http://www.gilder.com/ =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- FRIDAY FEATURE/ Who Authorized This? What America is based on is not the achievement of some goal, the capture of some trophy, or the triumph of success. It's about the process of seeking something. It's about incompletion, dissatisfaction, striving, imperfection. In the late 18th century, this was a statement in itself. In the Europe of the preceding centuries, armies had gone to war, human beings had been burned at stakes, monarchs had been dethroned, and countries torn apart because imperfection wasn't enough. From the Inquisition to the Reformation, religious fanatics had demanded that the state enforce holiness, truth, and virtue. Those who resisted were exterminated. Moreover, the power and status of rulers derived from their own perfection. Kings and queens commanded artists to portray them as demi-gods. Dissenters were not merely troublemakers; they were direct threats to the perfect order of the modern state. This was a political order in which everything had to be perfectly arranged, even down to the internal thoughts of individual consciences. Enter the Americans... Hop over to http://www.forbes.com/asap/2001/1203/014.html where our good friend Andrew Sullivan reminds us what power four little words -- the pursuit of happiness -- still have. And what carnage they must still endure to survive. ~~~~~~~~~~ SHOW OFF YOUR PATRIOTISM! Gilder Publishing makes available to its subscribers, a limited stock of 1955 reproductions of the Declaration of Independence. These inspirational masterpieces have been hailed as authentic re-creations of the original by some of our more formidable institutions -- namely the National Archives, Independence Hall and the Library of Congress. Order yours either framed for $399 or unframed for $199! Click on the link for all the information. http://www.gilder.com/declaration/index.asp ~~~~~~~~~~ FRIDAY BONUS/ Intel's accidental revolution "The Intel 4004 Microprocessor, which debuted thirty years ago Thursday, sparked a technological revolution because it was the first product to fuse the essential elements of a programmable computer into a single chip. Since then, processors have allowed manufacturers to embed intelligence into PCs, elevators, air bags, cameras, cell phones, beepers, key chains and farm equipment, among other devices." But that's not the way the story was supposed to turn out... Go celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Intel 4004 Microprocessor, relive the history, and don't forget to check out the special reports on Designing the Next Generation of Microprocessors http://www.computerworld.com/resources/specials/0,4513,RLS1525,00.html ~~~~~~~~~~ "The best Telecosm ever," George Gilder concluded, after the Technologies of Freedom discussion wound down the fifth annual confab. The best ever? This year? How can that be? If you heard Carver Mead explain how neural networks will keep us safe, or George Gilder tell us how deflation can be overcome, or Eric Schmidt hold forth on data mining, or Peter Huber describe the ultimate "killer app," you would understand. Miss out on the conference? Well, it's not too late to HEAR "The best Telecosm ever!" Order your set of Telecosm tapes today at https://www.gilder.com/telecosm/ =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Gilder.com Poll: Are you concerned about bioterrorism? Terrified - 3% Worried - 35% Not Worried - 62% Up Next: Do you agree with President Bush's decision to try civilians before secret military tribunals? Weigh in now at http://www.gilder.com/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~ READINGS Corning Sees Turnaround in Mid-2002 http://www.siliconvalley.com/docs/hottopics/telecomm/044524.htm Global Crossing In Talks to Alleviate Debt Burden http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&;c=Article&cid=FT387ERF0UC&live=true&tagid=ZZZPCGI2B0C&subheading=telecoms AT&T-AOL Advancing Cable Talks http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/16/business/media/16CABL.html Lucent Sells Optics Unit For Lower Price http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&;c=Article&cid=FT34BD8H3UC&live=true&tagid=ZZZPCGI2B0C&subheading=telecoms SBC-Yahoo DSL Venture http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2001/11/14/financial1347EST0078.DTL&type=tech Juniper to Buy Pacific Broadband for $200 Million http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/technology/tech-telecoms-juniper.html Dell Rebounds After a 2nd-Quarter Loss http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/16/technology/16DELL.html Ebay: Fastest Growing Tech Firm in U.S. http://ecommercetimes.com/perl/story/14776.html Dell Calls Ceasefire In PC Price War http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0,4586,5099696,00.html?chkpt=zdnnp1tp01 Outsourcing Bolster's IBM http://www.atnewyork.com/news/article/0,1471,8471_924331,00.html Innovation Is Back, With Attitude http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/11/business/yourmoney/11SLAS.html E-Marketplaces Live http://www.line56.com/articles/default.asp?NewsID=3145 Focus On Customer Service http://www.internetweek.com/story/INW20011114S0005 Traffic Hits Web Sites After Crash http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/technology/AP-Crash-Internet.html Internet Servers Vulnerable to Attack http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/technology/tech-tech-icann-security.html Net Traffic to Leap 10-Fold in 2 Years http://www.ftmarketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4F5266EB%2DDFEE%2D402F%2D9891%2D4DCBD4EAE67D%7D COMPUTERWORLD Covers COMDEX http://www.computerworld.com/resources/specials/0,4513,RLS1525,00.html Divided We Stand http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.12/defense.html The Economic Effects of the Stimulus Plans http://www.heritage.org/library/cda/cda01-09.html Single Molecule Transistor http://www.cnn.com/2001/TECH/ptech/11/08/tiny.transistors.ap/index.html Close the Window On Virus-prone Outlook http://www.latimes.com/technology/la-000091345nov15.story Console Wars http://www.redherring.com/technology/games.shtml The Ultimate Jam Session http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.11/singapore.html The Grapes of Math http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.11/wine.html A Holiday Buying Guide to Technology http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/15/technology/circuits/15GUID.html -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- FRIDAY LETTER STAFF ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dave Dortman (ddortman@gilder.com) John Hammill (jhammill@gilder.com) CONTRIBUTORS THIS WEEK: John Hammill, Dave Dortman, Spencer Reiss, Sandy Fleischmann, Aaron Charlwood ADVERTISING INFORMATION ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 150,000 subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing, including industry leaders, financial professionals and individual investors. For information about advertising, contact Brian Cole, VP Business Development at bcole@gilder.com, tel 860-434-0614. FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Send letters to the editor to Fridayletter@gilder.com For technical problems, please e-mail Fridayhelp@gilder.com You can also contact us via: Gilder Publishing, Customer Service 888-484-2727; outside the U.S.1-413-644-2100 1-413-644-2123 (fax) =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing. If someone you know would enjoy it, please feel free to forward a copy. To SUBSCRIBE please visit http://www.gilder.com/ =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Copyright 2001 Gilder Publishing LLC --- You are currently subscribed to gilder-technology-report as: alewis@ect.enron.com To unsubscribe send a blank email to leave-gilder-technology-report-661837S@earth.lyris.net
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