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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com<@ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis <alewis@enron.com< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Inbox X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST W E D N E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index is falling 0.54 points to 189.22. The US Dollar Index gained 0.02 points to 119.42. The Dow Industrials trended lower by 30.59 points, at 9653.39, while the S&P 500 trended lower by 6.51 points, last seen at 1083.51. The Nasdaq Composite edged lower 25.79 points to 1812.73. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE BOOK-"Trading Tactics Of The Pro's" Written By A Legendary Trader http://www.ino.com/specials/manfin/tactics.html _____________________________________________________________________ IOWA FARMER AGREES TO SEND YOU HIS TRADES! _____________________________________________________________________ <<< DOUBLE YOUR MONEY TRADES <<< <<< EXCLUSIVELY REVEALED <<< <<< BY IOWA SOYBEAN FARMER <<< Dear Andrew: Family farmer, hedger and trader Ken Seehusen has agreed to send you his private personal trading signals. For years Ken has produced extraordinary profits for himself and an elite group of friends and traders. Today, INO.com offers a small window of opportunity for you to join them! Ken achieves what few traders can... ...he keeps losses and commissions to a minimum while letting winners run. It all adds up to BIG PROFITS for 'extreme SIGNALS' members! HURRY - FIND OUT MORE AT: http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/SUBXSIG-extremeSIGNALS <a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/SUBXSIG-extremeSIGNALS"<Click for extreme SIGNALS</a< P.S. You already know Ken...he writes the daily market commentary in this message! Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Wednesday amidst heavy institutional selling by Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. Trading volume was thin, which may have exaggerated some of today's losses. Nevertheless, both indexes posted new lows for the month thereby leaving the doors open for additional weakness into mid-February. The NASDAQ closed down 25.80 points at 1812.72 and below the 38% retracement level of the September/January rally. If the decline continues, November's reaction low crossing at 1782.48 marks the next level of support. The March S&P 500 index also closed lower on Tuesday and below the 38% retracement level of the September/January rally crossing at 1087.97. The door is open for a possible test of the late-October low crossing at 1060.60 later this month. March closed down 5.70 points at 1083.30. The Dow posted a quiet inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. Losses were limited as Cisco Systems rekindled investor confidence in U.S. companies with word that second- quarter results will exceed current estimates. However, investors remain very nervous about current stock valuations amidst suspicions over corporate accounting irregularities. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely on Thursday that could lead to a test of last week's low crossing at 9529.40. If this support level is broken, it would open the door for a possible test of long-term fib support crossing at 9318.20 later this month. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday amidst a relatively quiet session on Wall Street. Additional pressure came from lower than expected participation of an auction of 10-year notes. March continues to consolidate below January's high crossing at 104-11. If this resistance level is cleared, January's high crossing at 105-06 is a potential target later this month. Stochastics and a number of other short-term momentum indicators are bullish but diverging, which is often a precursor to a top and trend change. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it was pressured by weakness in energies, grains, hogs, bellies and some precious metals. Wednesday's rally was halted dead in its tracks following a spike of January's downtrend line crossing near 190.50. The CRB's failure to close above this resistance level and the previous reaction high crossing at 190.29 is short-term bearish and leaves the door open for additional weakness for the balance of the week. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that last week's low might have marked a mid-winter low. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Tuesday following this week's bearish inventory reports and sluggish demand. Additional pressure came from a report out of Kuwait that it will resume oil exports from its northern fields just one week after an explosion shut down one third if its output. March crude oil closed lower for the third day in a row thereby increasing the odds that last Friday's high marked the upper boundary of a late-winter trading range. Additional weakness later this week would turn a number of short-term momentum indicators neutral to bearish thereby signaling that sideways to lower prices might be possible into mid-February. It remains unlikely that March will breakout above the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 22.50 in the near future. March heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this week's sell off from last Friday's high. This week's bearish inventory report along with bearish extended weather forecast for the high-demand regions of the U.S. continues to weigh on prices. March heating oil has fallen back into January's trading range and in doing so has turned a number of short-term momentum indicators neutral to bearish. I would not be surprised to see March heating oil breakout below this winter's trading range as it posts a new contract low later this month. March unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday retracing just over 50% of last week's rebound since Monday. Rising inventories and weak demand continue to offset the approach of seasonal trend changes in the market. Stochastics and the RSI turned bearish with today's weakness signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the first half of February. March Henry Hub natural gas closed slightly higher due to short covering ahead of this afternoon's AGA inventory report on Wednesday. This afternoon's report showed a draw of 82 billion cubic feet of natural gas taken from storage, the low end of expectations. This could limit if not pressure prices on Thursday as the market still has over 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas hanging over the market. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar posted a potential downside reversal on Wednesday after early strength tied to short covering faded into the close. However, the near mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. March needs to close below Monday's low crossing at 118.96 to confirm a breakout below January's uptrend line. Until then, I caution anyone against becoming too bearish despite the overbought condition of the market. The March Swiss Franc remained within Tuesday's trading range but closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering. Today's close above last week's high crossing at .5898 increases the odds that a double bottom with December's low was posted last week. However, closes above this winter's downtrend line crossing near .6010 are needed before this can be confirmed. This week's rebound has turned the daily ADX bullish signaling that additional short covering is possible. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. I would caution anyone from becoming too bullish this market until this winter's downtrend line has been broken. The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday, which led to a test of January's uptrend line crossing near .6230 and coincides with previous support. Closes below .6230 would signal an end to this winter's short covering bounce while opening the door for sideways to lower prices into mid-February. This week's setback has turned stochastics and the RSI bearish thereby increasing the odds for sideways to lower prices near-term. The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's loss. The March yen is at a crossroads and will need to close above last fall's downtrend line crossing near .7600 or below last week's low crossing at .7416 to clear up near-term direction in the market. If this winter's decline resumes, weekly support crossing at .7371 is March's next target. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals April gold closed slightly lower on Wednesday amidst profit taking. Early strength was due to spillover buying interest due to a breakdown in investor confidence over the valuation of equity prices. However, a relatively quiet trading day on Wall Street triggered a round profit taking following April's break out into new contract highs on Tuesday. Aprils could spend the balance of this week consolidating above broken resistance crossing at 297.50. If the rally resumes later this month, weekly resistance crossing at 322 is April's next target. Momentum indicators are bullish but becoming overbought warning bulls that a rebound in the equity markets could trigger a round of long-liquidation as skittish investors rotate capital out of gold and back into stocks. March silver posted a downside reversal on Wednesday. Overnight strength fell just short of testing the 50% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 4.492. However, a lack of panic selling in the equity markets early in the day session triggered a round of profit taking that extended into the close. Wednesday's low-range close leaves the door open for a steady to weaker opening for Thursday. A lower close on Thursday would signal that the initial rebound off last week's low has likely come to an end. March copper closed lower on Wednesday as profit taking continues following last week's dramatic run up. March's inability to sustain a breakout above November's high crossing at 73.70 along with a number of short-term momentum indicators turning neutral to bearish from overbought levels hints that a broad double top might be in place. Wednesday's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Thursday as March might try to consolidate some of this week's losses. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn posted a new contract low on Wednesday following reports that Malaysia bought at least one cargo of Chinese corn for April shipment. The renewed Chinese exports combined with sluggish U.S. exports triggered another round of fund selling amidst a lack of buying interest. A short covering bounce ahead of the close allowed March corn to close at long-term support crossing at 2.04 1/4. If the decline continues, psychological support crossing at 2.00 is March's next target later this month. Pre-report sales exports for Thursday range from 750K to 950K metric tons, which is still well below the pace needed to reach this year's export projection. Fears that the USDA will be forced to lower its export projection possibly on Friday also weighted on prices today. Unless the U.S. Dollar falls making U.S. corn more competitive with other feed grains on the world market and or export demand sees a significant increase in the near future, corn prices will continue to decline until increased demand surfaces. March wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday due to spill over weakness from corn and soybeans. It's the same old story the bears continues to beat the strong U.S. Dollar has made U.S. wheat less competitive on the world market resulting in sluggish export demand. Today's low-range close leaves the door open for additional weakness on Thursday if export sales prove disappointing. December's low crossing at 2.77 marks the next level of support. Closes below this low could lead to an eventual test of the contract low crossing at 2.73 later this winter. Pre-report sales estimates range from 450K to 600K metric tons. March wheat will need to close above January's downtrend line crossing near 2.86 to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed sharply lower on Wednesday erasing most of this week's short covering gains. Today's sell off was triggered by a lack of fresh market friendly news, the start of harvest in Brazil and China's unwillingness to postpone its March 20th deadline for implementation of GMO policies regarding soybean imports. While a short covering bounce late in the day tempered some of today's losses, the door remains open for a likely test of last week's low in the near future. Traders are looking for tomorrow's export sales report to come in between 600K to 800K metric tons. While there is some talk that the USDA might raise its export projection for this year in Friday's report, bearish traders are quick to say that any increase has already been factored into prices. Until March soybeans can close above the reaction high crossing at 4.39 1/2, the February low has not been confirmed. March soybean meal posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it filled the gap crossing at 147.90 in early trading. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. Pre-report export sales estimates range from 75K to 140K metric tons. Today's near mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Thursday however; trading is likely to be subdued ahead of Friday's supply/demand report. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the first half of February. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed lower on Wednesday pressured by steady to lower cash bids and soft packer demand. Light markets tempered today's sell off as April consolidated above broken resistance crossing at 61.90. Nearby cash fundamentals continue to look sloppy with a weak tone in pork cutout values and shrinking packer margins. Favorable weather conditions are also a potential bearish factor. If the rally continues, weekly resistance, crossing at 63.60 is a potential target later this week. At the same time, both daily and weekly stochastics are overbought hinting that a major top appears to be near. However, closes below initial trendline support crossing near $61 are needed before this is confirmed. April cattle closed higher on Wednesday and above the 75% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 76.00. If the rally continues, the bottom of last summer's trading range crossing at 77.10 is a target later this month. Today's rally was triggered by higher boxed beef values. Cash bids have not be established however, bullish traders are hoping to see $72 bids later this week. Wednesday's high-range close leaves the door open for additional gains on Thursday. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed slightly higher on Wednesday due to light short covering following a gap lower opening, which was triggered by origin and fund selling. However, light trade buying after the opened triggered a short covering bounce that lasted into the close. March is at a crossroad and needs to close above 46.20 or below 44.00 to clear up near-term direction in the market. Momentum indicators are very oversold hinting that a short covering bounce might be needed soon. March cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close due to short covering that left Tuesday's downside reversal unconfirmed. Closes above January's high at 1422 would negate the possibility that a double top is forming while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1508 later this winter. Stochastics are still bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. March will need to close below last week's low crossing at 1327 to temper the bullish outlook in the market. May sugar closed higher on Wednesday but below mid-range. Early strength fell short of testing broken support marked by last October's low crossing at 601. Until May can post multiple closes above this broken support level thereby tempering the bearish outlook in the market, the door remains open for additional weakness later this month and a possible test of weekly support crossing at 5.48. Momentum indicators are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. March cotton posted a quiet inside day with a slightly higher close on Wednesday as the market waits for near-term direction following the release of Thursday's export sales report. A friendly report on Thursday could renew March's rally off last week's low that could lead to a test of January's high crossing at 38.50 later this month. Barring a major surprised in tomorrow's report, upside potential appears limited ahead of Friday's supply/demand report. Cotton will likely remain range bound until the market gets a better handle on this year's planted acreage. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ New Nasdaq Pricing Package For Market Participants http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27784 Round The Clock Trading For S&P/TOPIX 150 Index Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27783 Coffee 'C' Contract Maintains Record-Breaking Streak http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27782 Euronext Launching Sunflower Seed Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27781 Strong NYMEX Statement Opposing Futures Transaction Tax http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27780 Francioni Taking Over From Fischer As SWX Chairman http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27779 London's IPE Begins 2002 With Record Volumes http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27778 OneChicago Announces First 30 Single-Stock Listings http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27777 Deutsche Borse Continues To Expand European Stocks Sector http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27776 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS YGG2 Mini NY Gold Feb 2002 304 12.9 +4.43 NGM4 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jun 2004 2.988 0.102 +3.39 LBU2 Random Length Lumber Sep 2002 286.90 8.00 +2.87 PNH2 Propane Mar 2002 0.3060 0.0085 +2.86 OH2 Oats Mar 2002 206 3/4 4 1/4 +2.10 CCZ3 Cocoa Dec 2003 1212 17 +1.42 KCZ2 Coffee 'C' Dec 2002 54.70 0.65 +1.20 XLG2 Live Cattle Feb 2002 74.60 0.88 +1.19 KIJ2 Kilo Gold Apr 2002 300 3.5 +1.18 GCZ4 Gold Dec 2004 321 3.4 +1.07 LOSERS VZU2 Corn (a/c/e) Sep 2002 210 -15 3/4 -6.98 BOH2 Soybean Oil Mar 2002 15.25 -0.42 -2.68 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 55.600 -1.400 -2.46 HUH2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Mar 20 0.5710 -0.0142 -2.43 AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.290 -0.100 -2.28 PBG2 Frozen Pork Bellies Feb 2002 74.900 -1.675 -2.19 HOH2 Heating Oil Mar 2002 0.5279 -0.0104 -1.94 RAH2 South African Rand Mar 2002 0.084500 -0.001425 -1.66 CLH2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Mar 2002 19.78 -0.32 -1.59 AFH2 Aluminum Mar 2002 0.6455 -0.0090 -1.38 FREE 2002 Commodity Reference Calendar http://www.ino.com/specials/rjo/calendar.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 9.85 1.63 +19.83 NXTL NEXTEL COMMUNIC'NS'A' 6.0200 0.9700 +19.21 KMX CIRCUIT CITY STRS-CARMAXGRP 24.41 3.86 +18.78 CIP AT&T CAPITAL 8.25% 'PINES' 21.75 3.20 +17.49 CIC AT&T CAPITAL 8.125%'PINES' 21.65 3.10 +17.03 CYMI CYMER INC 41.3700 5.9400 +16.62 UVN UNIVISION COMMUNIC 'A' 39.56 5.52 +16.22 PC PEREZ COMPANC S.A. 10.73 1.41 +14.92 ASTSF ASE TEST LTD 12.9500 1.6000 +14.00 AKSY AKSYS LTD 6.8600 0.8300 +13.70 LOSERS CRN CORNELL COMPANIES INC 9.96 -7.49 -42.85 OVER OVERTURE SERVICES INC 17.9200 -12.3600 -40.63 WEBX WEBEX COMMUNICATIONS INC 17.0500 -6.9300 -28.71 MCAF MCAFEE.COM CORP'A' 16.5600 -4.6200 -21.73 CPN CALPINE CORP 6.80 -1.85 -21.14 PCSA AIRGATE PCS INC 10.6300 -2.7600 -20.13 ONES ONESOURCE INFORMATION SERVICES 8.0000 -1.8600 -18.98 IONA IONA TECHNOLOGIES ADR 15.5000 -3.5000 -18.77 ASE AMER SCIENCE & ENGR 12.75 -2.99 -18.70 MCIT WORLDCOM INC-MCI GROUP COMM 9.0600 -1.9300 -17.53 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2002 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.
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