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COMMENT ON FED RATE CUT
Dr. Ed Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown April 19, 2001 Now there are 450 basis points left between the federal funds rate and zero. Since the start of the year--in less than four months--the Fed folks have reduced the rate by 200 basis points, while the jobless rate has remained close to 4%. The message to equity investors is clear: The folks at the Fed don't want a recession, and they do want consumers to keep shopping. According to the official easing statement yesterday, they acted in response to a recent set of developments that "threatens to keep the pace of economic activity unacceptably weak." This wording suggests that they must be aiming for economic growth that is acceptably strong. Apparently, they now understand that the profits recession was on the verge of turning into an economy-wide recession. Nearly every company reporting disappointing profits in recent weeks also announced plans to cut employment. Obviously, if many companies do so, consumer spending would be depressed and profits would continue to fall during the second half of the year. Interestingly, the Fed folks strongly implied in their statement that they now want stock prices to rise to offset "the possible [negative] effects of earlier reductions in equity wealth on consumption." This is a dramatic reversal from early last year, when the Fed Chairman said that the stock market rally was causing a wealth effect that was stimulating excess demand. Our Chief Economist, Peter Hooper, has accurately anticipated that the Fed would respond to a weakening economy by lowering interest rates. He expects that another half-point cut is coming at the May 15 meeting of the policy committee. I have shared this outlook. (You might recall that at the end of last year, I suggested you should chant the following mantra to calm any recession anxiety: "There are still 650 basis points between the fed funds rate and zero.") So how does the Fed's latest action change the outlook for the stock market? Most importantly, it reduces the likelihood that consensus earnings expectations will continue to decline over the remainder of the year. Even if there are some more negative surprises for the first and second quarters, most analysts are likely to remain optimistic about the second half of the year and 2002, especially now that the Fed has sent such a clear pro-growth message. On the other hand, earnings valuation multiples are unlikely to rise from currently high levels if the 10-year government bond yield remains around 5% through the end of the year as no seems more likely than another drop. Furthermore, stocks are now 11% overvalued as a result of the dramatic rally in stock prices in recent days combined with the backup in yields. The bulls can rightly cheer, "The Fed is our friend!" However, stocks aren't cheap, though many are certainly cheaper than a year ago. The Fed is clearly the consumers' friend. So I reiterate my preference for consumer cyclicals, especially retailers. However, if retailers continue to advance, we may have to lighten up at some point if valuations become overly rich. I think entertainment, recreation, and media stocks should also benefit from easier credit conditions. Consumer finance stocks should remain strong since the risk of recession-induced loan delinquencies is reduced. Money center and regional banks are also winners now that the yield curve is no longer inverted, thanks to the Fed. In addition, the quality of their loan portfolios is likely to remain sound. Investment bankers and asset managers should be more profitable in this improved outlook for the financial markets during the second half of the year. Nevertheless, I am neutral on the bond-sensitive industries (Life Insurance, P&Cs, and S&Ls) which will probably mark time for the rest of the year. I may have overstayed my underweight position in technology given the impressive rebound over the past week. Fortunately, I continue to recommend 1) an overweight in software (no inventory or commoditization issues) and, 2) a market weight in semiconductors (high profit margins when sales rebound). More generally, Tech remains an earnings-challenged sector, but investors seem to mostly believe that "it's so bad, it can't get any worse." They are probably right, but it may not get much better either for a while. There are still plenty of dot-coms that haven't crashed and burned yet, but are burning cash fast. Cisco can write-off inventories, but they still need to be sold. On the other hand, I do expect a wave of M&A activity in the Tech and Telecom sectors. Such consolidation could help to solve some of the excess capacity and competitive issues hurting many tech industries' profitability. For this reason, I am raising my Computer Hardware recommendation to market weight. I remain fond of wireless infrastructure equipment for running businesses on a truly real-time basis. My "Power Play" stocks (Energy & Utilities) did not participate in yesterdays rally. But I think once the Tech euphoria cools off and the summer heat drives up gasoline and electricity rates, they will do well. In about a month, the Bush Administration will release its energy plan, which should raise awareness of how much we must invest in power production and distribution after so many years of neglect. Health Care also was left behind yesterday. Maybe it is too defensive for yesterday's growth chasers. However, I think that a Biotech-led advance for this sector is likely over the remainder of the year. The more established Biotech companies are actually reporting some very respectable earnings performances. Finally, let me mention that Basic Materials, a tiny sector in the S&P 500, is rapidly consolidating, most recently in the metals & mining, paper, and steel industries. I like the stocks. I also like Defense & Aerospace. I'm neutral on Consumer Staples and Transportation. Dr. Ed ******************** 1) You can now automatically add/delete this update and other products. 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