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WELCOME - Vol. 6 No. 18
TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update ====================================================== Welcome ! For new and old subscribers, there is an Archive Section on our website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html It lists the original copy of each of our research reports, updates to those reports, and articles that we have published. We should be able to post a few updates over the weekend. In the meantime, most of our names had a good quarter - so far. Also, if you haven't already done so, we would appreciate it if you would take our survey at the end of this email - after the Classified Ads. Thanks. ============================================================= PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS =========================== INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE ================================== For everyone who has enjoyed reading our newsletter but has not had the $200,000 required for our personal, individual, asset management services, we have an incredible announcement to make: Green Mountain Asset Management Corp. and BridgePortfolio.com of Chicago, IL have created an alliance where you can now invest in the Green Mountain Asset Growth Portfolio through BridgePortfolio with a low minimum of $10,000. Your individual account will be set up at Schwab Institutional, which gives you 24 hr. web access. Green Mountain Asset, as a sub-advisor, will instruct BridgePortfolio what to buy and sell. BridgePortfolio.com, as your investment advisor, will execute trades on your behalf only in accordance with our instructions. Simple as that! Click here for more details. http://www.bridgeportfolio.com/index.asp?RelCode=GM4005VT Or call 800-610-8882 Monday through Friday - 9:00 am-5:00 pm CST ============================================================ This is a text only copy that should be fairly well formatted for most e-mail programs. For those of you that would prefer an easier to read format, simply click on the link to our website, and if you want, print a copy. http://www.stockresearch.com/weekecon.html ================================================================ WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: April 28, 2001 Prior Week in Review: Financial Market Highlights: ============================ 04/27/01 04/20/01 %Change S&P 500 1,253.05 1,242.97 +.81% Dow Jones 10,810.00 10,579.80 +2.18% NASD Comp 2,075.82 2,163.31 -4.04% Russell 2000 483.97 466.72 +3.70% SOX Index 642.74 669.50 -4.00% Value Line 392.00 385.54 +1.68% MS Growth 550.61 531.11 +3.67% MS Cyclical 545.27 534.01 +2.11% T - Bill 3.74% 3.71% +3 BP Long Bond 5.79% 5.78% +1 BP Gold - Oz-Near Month $264.30 $265.40 -$1.10 Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.40 $4.44 -$.04 Economic News: ============== First Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quite Good Accelerates From Fourth Quarter - Recession Now Unlikely Our View Still For Recovery In Second Half *April Consumer Confidence fell to 109.2 *Durable Goods Orders in March rose +3.0% - Excluding Volatile Transportation sector orders fell -1.8% *March New Home Sales rose +4.2% - Existing Home Sales rose +4.8% - February also revised upward *Jobless Claims rose +18,000 to 408,000 - Four Week Moving Average rose +12,250 to 394,500 - Largest Weekly increase since October, 1992 *Employment Cost Index rose +1.1% in 1st Qtr - Up +4.1% year-over-year - An acceleration from 4th Qtr *1st Qtr GDP rose +2.0% - An acceleration from 4th Qtr Personal Consumption Price Index at +3.3% rate - Up From 4th Qtr rate of +1.9% *Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 88.4 from end Of March level of 91.5 - But slight bounce from mid-month It does seem too early to declare victory for the Federal Reserve Board's monetary policy, but the odds of a recession have been seriously reduced given the quite positive first quarter GDP report. Clearly the initial report is subject to large revisions, but a revision into negative territory would be a stretch. Therefore, an official recession would require negative "growth" in the second and third quarters - an unlikely outcome in our view given prior interest rate cuts and a more stimulative fiscal policy. That's the good news. The bad news is that the same GDP report noted a pickup in inflationary pressures as the personal consumption price index accelerated quite markedly from the fourth quarter rate. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also pays quite a bit of attention to the Employment Cost Index (ECI) which rose at a +4.1% year-over-year rate for the first quarter. It is these types of pressures that we had in mind when we noted last week that the FOMC's intermeeting move contained some risks. One other point worth noting is that the Money Supply has been growing at an extremely rapid rate. In this day and age not many folks pay attention to the money supply data like they used to, but the liquidity being supplied by the FRB is significant. Clearly the pace can slow, but my point is that they are pulling out all the stops to avert a recession, and appear to have succeeded. But, in my view, not without incurring some risk that inflationary pressures will accelerate. In other words, it is not a given that the FOMC will lower rates by a half point, or at all, at their May meeting. Whether they do or not, and if so to what extent, will now depend upon forthcoming reports - particularly those providing price information, such as this coming Friday's Labor Department Report. And, there is the potential for a positive report. First, jobless claims have clearly been on a strong uptrend, so it almost doesn't matter the specific date the survey was taken, there should be an underlying bias toward continued softness. And second, beginning of the year price pressures should be out-of-the-way. In other words, pay raises that kick in at the first of the year, making comparisons more difficult, should no longer distort the data. Hopefully then, average hourly earnings will not break out of their recent band, taking some pressure off the FOMC. Going forward, the slide in consumer confidence, and the likely continuing rise in the unemployment rate, should mitigate wage demands. And, of course, if the economy does reaccelerate, then the FOMC will be more likely to use a higher assumption for productivity growth, so they will tolerate higher wage growth before being concerned about inflationary pressures. Simply put, we do not want to be alarmist, but we do want to make certain that given all the "recession talk", investors understand that we have not entered a risk free nirvana. The FOMC has been very, very aggressive in trying to avoid a recession. They appear to have succeeded. If we have a non "V" recovery (still the best bet), then inflationary pressures should be contained. Our concern is that if we, and virtually everyone else, are wrong, and the recovery is sharp, then inflationary pressures could build. Stay tuned, the "all clear signal" has not yet been rung ! Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: ========================================= Monday: Personal Income/Spending, Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Tuesday: Nat'l Purchasing Managers' Index, Construction Spending Wednesday: Factory Orders, FRB Beige Book Thursday: Jobless Claims Friday: Labor Department Employment Report Fresh Money Buys: ================= In response to subscriber feedback, we have established this section to highlight recommendations from our list that we believe are the most attractively priced currently. We will limit the selections to three each week, even as our list of recommendations grows. American Int'l Group (AIG) $80.80 Benchmark Electronics (BHE) $24.70 State Street (STT) $103.79 Full reports, and updates, are available on our Website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html We also have a StockWatch page at go2net from which you can obtain updated information for any of our stocks, including the Fresh Money Buys. Just click the link below: http://www.stockresearch.com/watch.html We will not track the performance of this list as we are already monitoring the original recommendations. Hope this helps. ****************************************************************** INVESTools ========== Top Fiber Pick +88% in One Week! New Buylist Just Released. 4/11/01: Steve Harmon says "buy" this fiber-optic bargain. 4/19/01: It's up 88+% and it's STILL a bargain with a P/E of just 22! His brand-new buylist has 10 more that can move up just as fast. Get them today with your FREE 30-day trial: http://www.investools.com/c/ro/BRBN/SR-brbnTB1?s=S600-S601 INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY - FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL OFFER ===================================================== FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL to America's Fastest Growing Newspaper and the FREE VIDEOTAPE "Maximizing Your Success." CLICK http://ibd.infostreet.com/cgi-bin/freeoffer.cgi?source=ALA1GE2 NO CREDIT CARD INFORMATION REQUIRED ****************************************************************** CLASSIFIED ADS ============== PARIS VACATION RENTALS - Apartment on Historic Ile Saint Louis Also, Now Accepting "Indications of Interest" For 2002 http://www.paris-vacation-rental.com THE NEW YORKER BOOK OF MONEY CARTOONS - R. Mankoff Ed. - $17.56 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1576600335/greenmountainass DAMN RIGHT: BEHIND THE SCENES WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY... - $22.36 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471244732/greenmountainass THE INTELLIGENT ASSET ALLOCATOR: ... MAXIMIZE RETURNS... - $23.96 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0071362363/greenmountainass ****************************************************************** SURVEY ====== It would really help us if you would take our brief survey, so that we have a better understanding of our users and so that we can sell targeted advertising, which keeps our services free to you. A benefit to you and us. So, please take just two minutes to fill out a 13 question survey. There is no informa- tion requested to identify you personally as our only interest is in the aggregate data. Thank you very much for your help ! http://38.148.250.3/cgi-win/client.exe?readers,welcome,ad1321a,2000 To return here, after you have completed the survey, File Close works better than the method suggested at the survey site. ****************************************************************** As we continue to build both our Newsletter and our Website, we welcome your feedback, so please feel free to e-mail me at: mailto:bobbose@stockresearch.com To UNSUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-off@mail-list.com Be sure to use the e-mail address from which you subscribed. To SUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-on@mail-list.com To CHANGE, put either your new or old e-mail address in the subject line and the other address in the from line and send to: timely-invest-change@mail-list.com DISCLAIMER: =========== The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in the material. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. The information is obtained from internal and external sources which we consider reliable but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you to any changes in figures or our views. We, our employees, clients, and or officers and directors, may from time to time have a long or short position in the securities mentioned and may sell or buy such securities. -- Bob Bose Green Mtn. Asset Mgt. Corp., 139 Bank Street, Burlington, VT 05401 FREE Investment Newsletter - http://www.stockresearch.com FREE Trial Investor's Business Daily http://www.stockresearch.com/ibdform.html 800 - 385- 2673 / 802 - 658 - 7806 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To subscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-on@mail-list.com To unsubscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-off@mail-list.com To change your email address, send a message to timely-invest-change@mail-list.com with the other address in the Subject: line This message was launched into cyberspace to alewis@ect.enron.com
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