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==================================================== from Gilder Publishing THE FRIDAY LETTER e-mailed weekly, for friends and subscribers ==================================================== | www.gilder.com | Issue 10.0/June 1, 2001 HEADLINES: * Better Medicine -- Cheaper?Faster?Smarter? * The Week/Asterisk for Alan? * In The Digital Power Report/Photon Power * In New Economy Watch/Opportunity Knocks * Friday Feature/Money For Nothing * Poll Question/Is Television Toast? * Readings * Conference Calendar ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ BETTER MEDICINE -- Cheaper?Faster?Smarter? Have you been wondering how you will benefit from the latest medical discoveries?the human genome project?proteomics?and other increasing complex bio-medical developments? Then join Gilder's newest analyst, Dr. Scott Gottleib for a look at the market prospects in a half hour live webcast Tuesday June 12th at 2 pm. There is no fee to attend this webcast. Dr Scott Gottlieb is a physician and former Wall Street health care analyst. He completed his medical degree at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, where he did research on enzyme deficiencies utilizing transgenic mice, and continued his medical training in internal medicine at the Mount Sinai Hospital, New York where he now practices. Please join us! For more information, please go to http://www.gilder.com/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE WEEK/Asterisk for Alan? "In 1961, Roger Maris hit 61 home runs to break Babe Ruth's 1927 record. Unfortunately, it took him eight more games than Ruth. For the next thirty years, an asterisk differentiated his record from Ruth's 60 home run total, denying Maris the satisfaction of his accomplishment. "Today, as Alan Greenspan winds down his career, his otherwise stellar record is threatened with an asterisk as well. After a record-breaking recovery, high-tech stocks have crashed, the economy is closer to recession than it has been in over a decade, and many think that inflation is returning. "The Fed has cut rates faster in 2001 than at any time since 1982, when the economy was in the worst recession since the Great Depression and inflation was rising at double-digit rates. Greenspan is managing the economy on the run, reacting to economic developments, not anticipating them. After years of seeming in control, the Fed looks out of control." Brian Wesbury updates the Greenspan legacy in The American Spectator's June issue. Read the full text at www.gilder.com, and subscribe online at 50% off the annual cover price. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IN THE DIGITAL POWER REPORT/Photon Power "Low-power lasers can handle most bit-moving, think-and-see applications just fine. Indeed, too much power becomes a problem when the objective is to send a beam through the very narrow core of a strand of glass, or down to the micron-sized pits on a compact disk. But our economy moves atoms, too, and atoms are a lot heavier than bits. If it's powerful enough, highly ordered light lets us move atoms--stuff--a million times better than the old tools of the thermal and mechanical world. It permits ultra-fine heating, soldering, drilling, cutting, and materials processing, with fantastic improvements in speed, precision, and efficiency. Nothing can move atoms more finely than photons can. "Highly ordered light has already transformed the think/see telecommunications legacy of Alexander Graham Bell. The industrial legacies of Thomas Edison, George Westinghouse, and Henry Ford come next. The move laser is destined to become as ubiquitous in the atom-moving economy as its low-power counterpart already is in CD players and desktop printers. The second photonic revolution is at hand." Peter Huber and Mark Mills go photonic in June's Digital Power Report, posting online next week. Subscribe now or log in at www.digitalpowerreport.com. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IN NEW ECONOMY WATCH/Opportunity Knocks "It took Microsoft's antitrust trial to convince Silicon Valley that Washington DC had not already lapsed into the irrelevance it may well someday achieve. That's clearly not the case at Enron, where CEO Ken Lay (a former official of the old Federal Power Commission, it's worth noting) isn't given to underestimating either the sharpness of political teeth or, more importantly, the potential gold mines in deregulation. Lay was the 2000 Bush campaign's largest single contributor, which undoubtedly had nothing whatsoever to do with the half-hour chat he got with Dick Cheney, just as the Vice President was putting together the White House's new energy initiative. Top of Lay's agenda: creation of an open national electricity grid, where a markets-based innovator like Enron can skate rings around entrenched local and regional utilities. No prizes for guessing what's front and center in the Bush administration's energy plans. "But all that said, ENE's roller-coaster performance over the past six months shows the kinds of curve balls that regulation (or in this case, the mere threat of it, from California) can throw. And the energy circus, for that matter, is a walk in the park compared with the professional wrestling underway in telecom, featuring Beltway heavyweights such as Austin-based SBC, the rest of the Baby Bells and AT&T, all demanding their (often mutually exclusive) due. Rookie FCC referee Michael Powell is making all the right deregulatory noises. What he needs now is Jesse Ventura." June 2001's New Economy Watch is hitting mailboxes now, featuring Jeff Stambovsky on telecom debt and wide-ranging insights from across the investment landscape. Subscribe now at www.neweconomywatch.com. ~~~~~~~~ FRIDAY FEATURE/Money For Nothing In those famously heady days of 1999, first-day IPO run-ups left an amazing $37 billion "on the table"--in the pockets of those lucky enough to get a pre-market share allotments, rather than in the coffers of the companies ostensibly raising money to fund their future growth. In the first six months of 2000, another $20 billion followed--roughly twice what the underwriters earned in fees, and an infinite multiple of many of the issuers' actual earning prospects. Divide that by various burn rates, and a lot of now-famous belly-ups might still be around. "Money on the table" has fuelled much gnashing of investor teeth, and plenty of conspiracy theories as well. It's also the raison d'etre for our good friends at W.H. Hambrecht & Co, whose Dutch auction-style IPO underwriting is getting renewed attention in today's more efficiency-conscious markets. In "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?" Notre Dame's Tim Loughran and Jay Ritter of the University of Florida run the numbers on the whole amazing business, and offer some theories about why it won't be going away anytime soon. Download the full monograph at http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/ritter/parnov.htm. (A tip of the hat to our friend and FT columnist Peter Martin for spotting the report. Kudos as well to the excellent Review of Financial Studies Online, a treasure trove of investment-related research available free at http://www3.oup.co.uk/revfin/contents/.) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THIS JUST IN/Gilder.com Poll Results 16 May-1 June 2001 Question: Is television toast? Yes: 55% No: 45% Up next: Do you own AT&T? Lucent? Weigh in at www.gilder.com. =-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=advertisement =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Get a FREE Trial Issue of Forbes! Special online offer--click on the URL below to order today. https://commerce.cdsfulfillment.com/FRB/subscriptions.cgi?IN_Code=IK03FTA =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= READINGS Chairman Powell Speaks www.ft.com/fcc Lucatel Deal Goes South: "Optics" Uber Alles http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/31/technology/31LUCE.html (registration required) Bell Labs: Still Brilliant After All These Years http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/30/technology/30BELL.html (registration required) Hot Ticket: ATT Broadband http://www.inside.com/jcs/Story?article_id=31901&pod_id=13 Breaking Up Is (Siill) Hard To Do http://www.msnbc.com/news/578467.asp Vodafone: Too Good To Be True http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/30/business/30PLAC.html?searchpv=day01 (registration required) DoCoMo's 3G (Barely) Airborne http://www.thestandard.com/article/0,1902,26756,00.html?nl=mg Wa's Up? Steven Levy in Cyber Japan http://www.msnbc.com/news/578408.asp Mutually Assured Destruction: Interactive TV http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=631675 (registration required) Symbian: Not Over Til The Opera Sings Http://www.internetworld.com/news/archive/05292001b.jsp IBM Quadrupling Disk Space http://www.cnn.com/2001/TECH/ptech/05/22/ibm.disk.idg/index.html L.E.D.s Go Organic http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/31/technology/31NEXT.html (registration required) Mister Softee for Hire http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB991262507858687130.htm (subscription required) Streaming Media Wars http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/05/30/technology/aol/ More Moore's Laws http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/27/technology/27FIVE.html?ex=992146996&;ei=1&en=9cfaae1f195d5f67 (registration required) Pocket Picking on Wall Street http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=635389 (registration required) Tech Bonds Rock http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB991247888963735777.htm (subscription required) The Napsterization of Mutual Funds http://www.efinanceinsider.com/email53101.htm Tax Bill Bonus: Computer Write-offs http://www0.mercurycenter.com/business/top/007362.htm NSA: Hearing Aids Wanted http://interactive.wsj.com/archive/retrieve.cgi?id=SB990563785151302644.djm&;template=pasted-2001-05-23.tmpl (subscription required) ET Home Hacked! http://www.space.com/searchforlife/setihome_cheats_010524.html Hormel Gives Up on Banning "Spam" http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,44111,00.html You've Got Madonna! http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/31/arts/31POPL.html (registration required) =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- GET THE GILDER TECHNOLOGY REPORT Monthly, From the Heart of the Telecosm http://www.gildertech.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GET NEW ECONOMY WATCH Reshaping the Competitive Landscape http://www.neweconomywatch.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GET THE DIGITAL POWER REPORT Electrons Matter http://www.digitalpowerreport.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GET DYNAMIC SILICON Linking the Microcosm and the Telecosm http://www.dynamicsilicon.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GET THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR Online special--50% off cover price! http://www.gilder.com/AmSpecSub.asp =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- GILDER CONFERENCE CALENDAR September 12-14, Telecosm V, Squaw Creek Resort, Lake Tahoe CA. The one and only. Produced by Forbes Inc and Gilder Publishing. Details and registration at http://www.forbes.com/conf/telecosm/agenda1.shtml October 22-24, Powercosm 2001, Featuring Peter Huber and Mark Mills, The Fairmont Hotel, San Francisco, CA Digital Power in the Silicon Age. Register now at http://www.gilder.com/powercosm_forms/Conference.asp -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing. If someone you know would enjoy it, please feel free to forward a copy. SUBSCRIBE and UNSUBSCRIBE information can be found at the bottom of this email. FRIDAY LETTER STAFF ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ John Hammill (jhammill@gildertech.com) Jorin Hawley (jhawley@gildertech.com) E-Mail Wizard Dave Dortman CONTRIBUTORS THIS WEEK: Aaron Charlwood, John Hammill, Dave Dortman, Spencer Reiss, Lauryn Franzoni ADVERTISING INFORMATION ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Friday Letter is mailed each week to more than 60,000 subscribers and friends of Gilder Publishing. For information about advertising, contact Brian Cole, VP Business Development at bcole@gildertech.com, tel 860-434-0614. FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Send letters to the editor to Fridayletter@gildertech.com For technical problems, please e-mail Fridayhelp@gildertech.com You can also contact us via: Gilder Publishing, Customer Service 888-484-2727; outside the U.S.1-413-644-2100 1-413-644-2123 (fax) WE'VE MOVED! NOTE THE NEW PHONE NUMBERS. Copyright 2001 Gilder Publishing LLC --- You are currently subscribed to gilder-technology-report as: alewis@ect.enron.com To unsubscribe send a blank email to leave-gilder-technology-report-661837S@earth.lyris.net
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