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Subject:Oracle Beats the Tech Trend
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Date:Wed, 13 Dec 2000 03:04:00 -0800 (PST)

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Despite an onslaught of earnings warnings from tech companies lately, the
consensus expectation for Oracle (ORCL) is for at least a penny earnings
surprise and possibly a two-cent positive surprise.

Bert Hochfeld at Josephthal & Co., one of the more accurate analysts
following Oracle, is one of two analysts that have an official earnings
estimate of $0.11 per share. Mr. Hochfeld told clients recently that the
company would meet his expectations with strong U.S. sales offset by
disappointing European sales.?

The consensus among the 28 analysts is for Oracle to earn $0.10 per share on
revenue of just under $2.7 billion, yet even the more conservative analysts
are optimistic. Gretchen Teagarden at Salomon Smith Barney is one of the few
analysts with an estimate below $0.10 per share, but her revenue estimate is
slightly above the consensus revenue estimate.

On Tuesday Chris Shilakes at Merrill Lynch told clients that he is
projecting earnings of $0.10 per share on revenue of $2.68 billion. However,
he added that revenue might be slightly better than his projections and
Oracle's continued improvement with operating margins should lead to
earnings of $0.11 to $0.12 per share.?

Last week Jim Pickrel at Chase H & Q told clients that he expects the
company to meet or beat his earnings estimate of $0.10 per share and revenue
estimate of $2.6 billion. He stated that Oracle's "pipeline appears robust"
and that the company should achieve 52% revenue growth or better in its
applications business.

The pressing issues regarding Oracle among the analysts are next quarter and
the recent management turnover. Mr. Pickrel stated Oracle's Senior Vice
President Gary Bloom's departure would not have much of an impact, but
turnover in other key management positions is an issue. Yet, the recent pact
with CitiGroup (C) adds some confidence in the current team. Richard Davis
at Needham & Co. told clients recently that this quarter would be fine but
still downgraded Oracle's stock because of the departure of Bloom and Senior
Vice President Ray Lane reduces the company's earnings visibility and may
encourage others to leave the company as well.

Mr. Upin said that Oracle could have a tough February quarter and could see
its toughest test of its performance in the applications space in the May
quarter. Yet, overall the analysts like the stock and believe the recent
stock price is a buying opportunity.?

As result, the company will need to at least meet or beat the $0.11 Earnings
Whisper number and provide the analysts comfort with the current management
team and the upcoming quarters. If this can be accomplished during the
conference call on Thursday, some analysts believe the stock could reach $35
in the very near term. You may listen to Oracle's conference call at
http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/broadcast_oracle.htm beginning at 5:30 PM ET
on Thursday.

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