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T U E S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) December 12: The CRB Index edged lower 2.45 points to 229.91. The US Dollar Index gained 0.02 points to 114.26. The Dow Industrials gained 42.47 points, at 10768.27, while the S&P 500 moved lower 9.02 points, last seen at 1371.18. The Nasdaq Composite moved lower 83.23 points to 2931.87. FREE OPTIONS INVESTORS KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/ _____________________________________________________________________ FREE Bonus with every order from the INO.com Store _____________________________________________________________________ !!! HOLIDAY SPECIAL - FREE DOMESTIC SHIPPING !!! All orders over $100 shipped within the U.S. get FREE SHIPPING now through Christmas! 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES The Nasdaq and S&P's posted inside days with lower closes. Light pressure came from some negative pre- announcements on earnings in tech stocks that led to today's consolidation. The March S&P is consolidating just below trendline resistance crossing near 1410. The March Nasdaq has broken out above this fall's downtrend line crossing near 2900 thereby hinting a bottom and trend change may be in place. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices in both markets are possible near-term. Meanwhile, the Dow closed modestly higher as it extends its rebound off last Thursday's low. Closes above 10,917.30 are needed to extend this month's rebound into the end of the year. INTEREST RATES March bonds closed modestly higher on the day due to a late-session short covering rebound triggered by today's decline in the Nasdaq. Trading remains choppy, as the market is nervous over the much-anticipated ruling by the Supreme Court that should decide the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. March bonds are challenging November's uptrend line crossing near 102- 28. Multiple closes below this support level would all but confirm a top and trend change has taken place. Closes above last week's high at 104 are needed to resume the late-fall rally. CRB INDEX closed sharply lower on Tuesday pressured by weakness in heating oil, unleaded gas, cotton, foods, and grains. The CRB has been range bound following last Monday's strong rally and appears to be forming a possible symmetrical triangle. A breakout in either direction of this consolidation pattern should lead to a trending move in the direction of the breakout. Momentum indicators are neutral to bearish warning traders that a broad double top with October's high also appears to be forming. ENERGIES The energy markets closed mixed on Tuesday as February crude oil closed slightly higher while the product markets were lower following the release of bearish API (American Petroleum Institute) data, which showed gasoline and distillate stocks including heating oil building. Nevertheless, the oversold condition of the energy complex has left the doors open for a short covering rebound into the end of the year especially if Iraq continues its oil embargo while negotiating over price with the United Nations. Look for sideways to lower price action on Wednesday. CURRENCIES the March Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of its gains off last week's low. Nevertheless, momentum indicators are oversold and turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices into the end of the year are possible. The March Swiss Franc and D-mark closed steady to slightly higher due to light short covering on Tuesday. However, today's poor closes leave the doors open for sideways to lower prices near-term as both markets appear to have posted short-term tops with last week's highs. The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday after opening under pressure. Concerns over the Japanese economy and uncertainty over the U.S. Presidential race triggered today's sell off in the yen. Closes below .9088 would renew this fall's decline and set the stage for a test of weekly support crossing at .8978 later this winter. PRECIOUS METALS were closed mixed on Tuesday. February gold posted a quiet inside day due to light short covering as it consolidated some of its recent losses. However, today's mid-range close leaves the door open for a resumption of the decline off last week's high. Closes below trendline support crossing near 271.80 would confirm this fall's rebound has likely come to an end. March silver extended Monday's short covering rally. However, early gains faded into the close hinting this week's bounce has likely come to an end. March silver is poised to renew its decline off last week's high with November's lows at 4.69 cents being the next target. March copper closed lower on Tuesday following Monday's spike above the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline, which crosses at 89.47. Closes below November's uptrend line crossing near 87.50 would all but confirm the late-fall rebound has come to an end. Momentum indicators are overbought and turning neutral to bearish with today's loss. GRAINS closed lower on Tuesday. March corn closed fractionally lower in relatively quiet trading following this morning's neutral supply and demand report. The USDA lowered its export projection by 75 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels. The also raised ending stocks by the same amount to 1.754 billion bushels. These changes were widely anticipated by the market. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling March corn is likely to drift sideways to lower into the end of the year. Bulls are hopeful that the Starlink issue will be resolved by then, which should lead to an increase in foreign demand after the first of the year. March wheat also closed lower on Tuesday despite today's surprise increase in this year's export projection by the USDA. Expectations for lower production in Australia and Europe led to the increase. Carryout was also cut from 892 to 862 million bushels. However, spillover weakness from soybeans and meal was enough of a reason to trigger the late-session sell off. March is challenging trading range support crossing at 2.69. Closes below this support level could lead to a test of Sept.'s low at 2.63 1/2 and possibly long-term support at 2.50 later this winter. SOYBEAN COMPLEX closed mixed on Tuesday. January beans finished the day on the minus side despite today's increase in U.S. export projections. The USDA raised export sales for this year from 950 to 975 million bushels and lowered carryout by 30 million bushels to 320 million bushels. January beans are consolidating around fib resistance crossing at 5.10 3/4. The rising ADX signals sideways to higher prices near-term are possible. If the post-harvest rally continues, the fall high at 5.25 is a target. January soybean meal extended its rebound off last Friday's low following today's friendly supply and demand report. The USDA raised its export project some 200,000 tons to 7,300 million tons for the year. The increase was due entirely to the expected increase of meal demand from Europe due to the recent ban on meat and bone meal in animal feed. While light profit taking is possible on Wednesday to consolidate some of this week's gains. The door remains open for sideways to higher prices into the end of the year. January bean oil closed lower on Tuesday following today's bearish supply and demand report. The USDA raised ending stocks from 2.145 to 2.250 billion pounds and lowered export projections from 1.650 to 1.550 billion pounds. Additional weakness on Wednesday would set the stage for a test of November's low at 14.64 later this month. LIVESTOCK closed mixed on Tuesday. February hogs closed lower as locals faded the funds who are holding sizable long positions. Additional pressure came from light profit taking following Monday's spike of the previous contract high. At the same time, cash and pork cut out values continue to climb due to adverse weather conditions across the Midwest. Momentum indicators are overbought and diverging, which is often a precursor to a top and trend change. Closes below trendline support crossing near 57.40 are needed before this is confirmed. February cattle posted a key reversal up as it surged to new highs for the month amid higher boxed-beef prices and expectations for $76-77 cash bids later this week. Additional support came from aggressive buying from a believed to be large northwestern U.S. cattle feeder. February cattle are poised to test long-term resistance crossing at 77.92 possibly on Wednesday. FOOD & FIBER markets were mixed on Tuesday. March coffee drifted lower in choppy trading on Tuesday amidst a bearish weather forecast for this weekend across Brazil. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses leaving the door open for a short covering bounce on Wednesday. March cocoa extended this week's decline and spiked below November's low at 713 before a short covering bounce tempered some of today's losses. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for additional short covering on Wednesday however, the door is open for a test of psychological support crossing at 700. March sugar posted an inside day with a lower close due to a lack of fresh news in the cash market. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling sideways to lower prices into the end of the year are possible. If the decline resumes, 930 is the next target. March cotton gapped down and closed sharply lower following today's bearish supply and demand report. The USDA pegged U.S. production at 17.4 million bales down from last month's estimate of 17.51 million bales. However, the USDA also raised world ending stocks from 35.10 to 35.69 million bales due to lower demand. Today's gap down and close below the July/October uptrend line confirms a broad double top has been posted. The door is open for additional weakness and a possible test of October's low crossing at 63.75 later this winter. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei up 0.7% on US stock prospects http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24055 Add2: US Equities Review: Nasdaq slides after recent rally; DJIA up http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24053 UK Stocks Review: FTSE-100 up 0.3% on progress in Glaxo merger http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24063 FOREX US FX Review: Dollar/yen hits 11-day high on Japan econ concerns http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24057 Asia FX Review: Majors quiet; dollar/yen pulls back on Japan sales http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24054 Europe FX Review: Dollar/yen surges pre-tankan, euro fades http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24056 CREDIT US Credit Review: Bonds gain slightly, still wait for ruling http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24052 Europe Credit Review: Debt lower as inflation worries dominate http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24059 Japan Credit Review: March range-bounded ahead of BOJ tankan Wed http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24062 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Natural gas takes off what it put on http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24061 Japan Commodity Summary: Japan's Tokyo, Yokohama agricultural commodities futures prices http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24058 CRB Outlook: Seen trending higher with firm grains, metals http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24060 EXCHANGES NYMEX To Increase Natural Gas Margins http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23017 CME Indexes Break More Open Interest Records http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23016 Pacific Exchange to Trade Eleven New Options http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23015 Pacific Exchange Announces Revised Trading Date for Two Options http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23014 CME Christmas And New Year's Trading Schedule http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23012 EuroNext Paris 2001 Calendar http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23011 OM Stockholm Exchange Changes Rules For Attract 40 http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23010 Montreal Switches BAX And OBX To Electronic Platform http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23009 U.S. And Russian Commodity Regulators Sign Joint Statement http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23008 Nasdaq Appoints David P. Warren Chief Administrative Officer http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23007 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS AGZ1 Silver 1,000 oz. Dec 2001 5.100 0.080 +1.59 ZDZ0 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Dec 2000 10887 152 +1.42 PAZ0 Palladium Dec 2000 931.15 12.10 +1.40 XHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 49.75 0.65 +1.34 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 49.750 0.650 +1.33 DBU1 Butter Sep 2001 122.000 1.475 +1.24 XWZ0 Wheat Dec 2000 258 3 +1.16 XEZ0 Soybean Meal Dec 2000 193.4 2 +1.05 DAG1 BFP Milk Feb 2001 9.65 0.10 +1.04 SMZ0 Soybean Meal Dec 2000 193.4 2 +1.04 LOSERS NGJ1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Apr 2001 5.433 -0.507 -8.67 NDZ0 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2000 2865.00 -112.00 -4.11 MDZ0 S&P Midcap 400 Dec 2000 517.00 -16.75 -3.32 TKY0 PSE Tech 100 Cash 909.61 -29.72 -3.16 GIZ0 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Dec 2000 248.50 -7.55 -3.07 PNJ1 Propane Apr 2001 0.5310 -0.0150 -2.78 CTH1 Cotton Mar 2001 65.59 -1.80 -2.67 CCZ0 Cocoa Dec 2000 674 -17 -2.44 RLZ0 Russell 2000 Index Dec 2000 477.50 -11.05 -2.33 PBQ1 Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 2001 71.000 -1.500 -2.29 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS VLCT VALICERT INC 8 10/32 2 25/32 +51.15 CLEC US LEC CORP'A' 5 10/32 1 17/32 +38.28 LDIG LIBERTY DIGITAL INC CL A 7 1 5/8 +30.23 BOB MERRILL LYN 7.875%'STRYPES' 13 2 30/32 +29.19 MSCA M.S. CARRIERS 28 1/2 5 30/32 +26.39 USPH U.S. PHYSICAL THERAPY 20 4 15/32 +24.16 EQIX EQUINIX INC 6 5/8 1 1/4 +22.73 CBR CIBER INC 6 1/2 1 6/32 +22.35 ISLD DIGITAL ISLAND INC 6 17/32 1 5/32 +21.51 IBAS IBASIS INC 6 22/32 1 +21.43 LOSERS MAXMW MAXIM PHARMACEUTICALS WTS 2001 9 3/4 -12 -55.81 MAXM MAXIM PHARMACEUTICALS INC 16 3/4 -13 10/32 -44.28 PEGS PEGASUS SOLUTIONS INC 7 10/32 -4 26/32 -40.10 ATSN ARTESYN TECHNOLOGIES 29 1/2 -13 -30.23 IBC INTERSTATE BAKERIES 10 7/8 -3 14/32 -23.91 DS DALLAS SEMICONDUCTOR 26 -8 -23.53 INGN INTROGEN THERAPEUTICS 6 -1 3/4 -22.58 SIVB SILICON VALLEY BANCSHRS 34 3/4 -9 7/8 -22.19 TQNT TRIQUINT SEMICONDUCTOR 49 10/32 -12 10/32 -20.04 AVCT AVOCENT CORP 42 7/8 -10 1/2 -19.63 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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