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Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "Jack Belcher - Exchange" <jbelcher@chemweek.com<@ENRON <IMCEANOTES-+22Jack+20Belcher+20-+20Exchange+22+20+3Cjbelcher+40chemweek+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com< X-To: steve blalock <sblalock@calpine.com<, Spencer Kelly <skelly@chemweek.com<, Nick Snow <nsnow@chemweek.com<, Mary Aucoin <maucoin@chemweek.com<, Karl Lang <klang@chemweek.com<, Doug Gill <dgill@chemweek.com<, David Sweet <dsweet@ipaa.org<, Parks, Joe </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=JPARKS< X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Parks, Joe\Parks, Joe\Inbox X-Origin: PARKS-J X-FileName: Parks, Joe.pst ----- Original Message ----- From: <jay.saunders@db.com< Sent: Thursday, May 17, 2001 4:06 PM Subject: Email from Adam Sieminski -- US Natural Gas Inventories Rise Relentlessly < Last week's 119 bcf injection into U.S. natural gas storage - the largest < weekly injection since mid-June 1994 - leaves current storage of 1.077 tcf < only 86 bcf below last year and 40 bcf from the middle of the 1994-1999 < range. Based on seasonal patterns, large injections should continue over the < next nine weeks, when storage increases are typically the largest of the < year. So far this injection season, inventories have risen 450 bcf, or 100% < faster than the typical rate of 220 over the first six weeks of the refill < season. If inventories rise only half that rate, at 50% faster than the < norm, storage would pass the middle of the typical range next week and end < October at nearly 3 tcf, or 120 bcf from the top of the range. < < While our projected inventory injections seem bearish, we still look for < relatively strong price support above $4/mmBtu through the year. Even with < inventories rising quickly, there seems to be genuine concern for the need < to satisfy summer demand for electricity (air conditioning), especially in < the Southwest U.S. By the end of the year, however, we expect inventory < coverage of forward demand to be on par with normal levels. < < While we continue to feel that demand has been a major contributor to the < large storage injections, supply also seems to be playing a stronger role. < Reported DOE growth of 3% in 2000, which comes with a one percentage point < room for error due to data imperfections, comes mostly from Texas and < Wyoming. From Canada, higher than expected production from Alberta, in < addition to the eastern offshore, seems to have influenced the large < shipments to the U.S. Contrary to expectation, the Alliance pipeline has < been running at 1.5 bcf/d capacity - and often beyond - since its < commencement last November. < < <<gas inventory 0517.pdf<< < < ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST < < Jay Saunders < Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. < 1 South Street BAL01-1628 < Baltimore, MD 21202 < Office: 410-895-3341 Fax: 410-895-3202 < Mobile: 443-794-4183 < E-mail: jay.saunders@db.com < < < Information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from < sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be < guaranteed. Opinions, estimates, and projections constitute our judgement < and are subject to change without notice. This material is provided to you < for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or < solicitation for the sale of any financial instrument. Deutsche Banc Alex. < Brown Inc. and its affiliates worldwide may hold a position or act as market < maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as < an advisor or lender to such issuer. Transactions should be executed through < a Deutsche Bank entity in the client's home jurisdiction unless otherwise < permitted by law. Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. is a member of the NYSE and < NASD. Copyright 2001 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. < < < - gas inventory 0517.pdf
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