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"Energy Market Report" <emr@econ.com< on 10/26/2001 07:48:51 PM To: "Energy Market Report" <emr@econ.com< cc: Subject: Energy Market Report - 10-26-01 Energy Market Report Friday, October 26, 2001 *See attached pdf file. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) October 26, 2001 for October 28, 2001 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 28.00 NA 29.50 NA Mid-Columbia* 28.00 NA 29.50 NA COB* 28.00 NA 28.50 NA N. California* 25.50 NA 28.00 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 25.50 NA 27.50 NA Mead* 27.00 NA 28.00 NA Palo Verde* 26.25 NA 28.00 NA Inland SW* 26.25 NA 28.00 NA 4-Corners* 25.50 NA 27.00 NA Central Rockies* 20.00 NA 24.00 NA _________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 28.00 NA 29.50 NA Mid-Columbia* 28.00 NA 29.50 NA COB* 28.00 NA 28.50 NA N. California* 25.50 NA 28.00 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 25.50 NA 27.50 NA Mead* 27.00 NA 28.00 NA Palo Verde* 26.25 NA 28.00 NA Inland SW* 26.25 NA 28.00 NA 4-Corners* 25.50 NA 27.00 NA Central Rockies* 20.00 NA 24.00 NA *Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products. **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. _________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) October 26, 2001 for October 29, 2001 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 31.50 NA 33.40 NA Mid-Columbia 31.50 NA 33.40 NA COB 30.00 NA 34.50 NA N. California 32.00 NA 35.25 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 32.10 NA 36.00 NA Mead 33.50 NA 37.75 NA Palo Verde 33.00 NA 36.50 NA Inland SW 32.00 NA 36.50 NA 4-Corners 33.00 NA 33.75 NA Central Rockies 32.00 NA 33.50 NA _________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 28.00 NA 29.50 NA Mid-Columbia 28.00 NA 29.50 NA COB 28.00 NA 28.50 NA N. California 25.50 NA 28.00 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 25.50 NA 27.50 NA Mead 27.00 NA 28.00 NA Palo Verde 26.25 NA 28.00 NA Inland SW 26.25 NA 28.00 NA 4-Corners 25.50 NA 27.00 NA Central Rockies 20.00 NA 24.00 NA **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. _________________________________________________________ Intertie De-rated Amid a backdrop of mild weather and steady to falling loads across the region, Western peak power prices held steady in Friday trade. The volume of trading was exceptionally low and price ranges tightened across every trading hub, usually with the low end coming up to meet the high. "Heavy load volume went way down, but I'm at a loss as to why off-peak demand continued to trade," mumbled one bewildered player. One analyst speculated that with daytime highs near comfortable levels, "heating demand should only be kicking in at night." The market did indeed appear unusual throughout the West on Friday. Contrary to norms, power at Palo Verde and South Path sold at a premium to Mid-Columbia pieces. One possible factor for this anomaly could be the de-rating of the California-Oregon Intertie from between three- and four-thousand megawatts to 600 MW for scheduled maintenance, which will last through October 28. "This could have effectively isolated the Pacific Northwest with lower load demands and near-normal generating capacity, only with nobody to whom to export," one analyst postulated. While NYMEX made up for Thursday's losses, spot gas prices at the Southern California border fell by almost 25 cents on Friday. The Henry Hub natural gas contract for November climbed 10.3 cents to close at 3.041$/mmBtu, while December gas trailed along, gaining 8 cents on Friday 's trades to close at 3.183$/mmBtu. On Friday, Mid-Columbia peak power traded at a discount to power in the Southwest. Heavy load pieces traded in a tight range, between 31.5 to 33.4$/MWh on Friday, and this included the usual premium that comes with trading three days out. One player speculated that the lack of volatility at Mid-Columbia was due to the "loss of transmission capacity at the California-Oregon Intertie." Temperatures were forecast to hover near normal in the Northwest through the weekend, with reservoir-building precipitation called for on Friday, Monday and Tuesday. The latest six-to-ten predicted near-to-above normal temperatures would prevail from November 1 to 5, which suggested that daytime heating demand would not be likely in the week-and-a-half to come. Flow forecasts for Chief Joseph held steady at 45 kcfs for Saturday, 40 kcfs Sunday, 65 kcfs from Monday through Thursday, and 60 kcfs on Friday. No specific unit news was forthcoming, although aggregate output of northwest hydro units was reportedly down by over 1400 MW due to curtailed flows. Golden State electricity prices were mostly flat for the Sunday/Monday package to Thursday, with off-peak prices edging up on the usual all-day Sunday premium. Light load energy costs at SP15 and NP15 climbed 2.1 and 3$/MWh, respectively. SP15 prices were seen at a slight premium to NP15 in a light trading session, as many players sat on the sidelines, covering their loads, but otherwise out of the spot market. In political news, California's State Board of Equalization voted to switch tax jurisdiction of power plants from the local to the state level in 2003. The state reported it will tax the plants based on "fair market share", and predicted that more revenues will be raised under the new system. Also in the news, California will not build new transmission lines, used to import power from neighboring states Nevada and Arizona, until at least 2008. The generation landscape was little changed on Friday. The Shasta hydro units (526 MW) were completely off-line. "The reservoirs are probably too low to support any generation right now," speculated one analyst. Temperatures in California were expected to range from the low-70s to low-50s through Tuesday, producing little weather-related electricity demand in the state. Keeping hope for more demand in the near future down, the latest six-to-ten from the NWS called for normal temperatures from November 1 to 5. Southwest peak power was a hot commodity in the WSCC on Friday. Peak goods for Monday delivery fluctuated between 33 and 36.5$/MWh at Palo Verde, which boasted a higher volume of trade than its neighboring hubs. Some players speculated that the "Palo premium" was based on high natural gas prices that caused many California gas-fired plants to remain dormant and buy power from outside the state. "Without the California-Oregon Intertie, nobody could access Northwest hydropower, so everybody lined up at Palo Verde and SP-15," commented one seasoned marketer. Temperatures ranged from the high 80s in Phoenix to the mid-60s in Salt Lake City, with forecasts calling for temperatures to continue to hover just above normal through Tuesday. The latest six-to-ten extended the above-normal forecast through November 5. On the generation front, Navajo #1 (750 MW) returned to the grid on Thursday night as expected after completing water pump repairs. David Ramberg and Jessie Norris _________________________________________________________ Western Generating Unit Outages Current Begins Ends Reason CAISO units <250/6308 total NA NA planned/unplanned* Alamitos #3/320/gas 20-Oct-01 ? planned Bridger #2/520/coal 24-Oct-01 ? unplanned Bridger #3/520/coal 24-Oct-01 27-Oct-01 tube leak Comanche #2/335/coal 29-Sep-01 30-Oct-01 maintenance Contra Costa #7/337/gas 01-Sep-01 ? planned El Segundo #3/337/gas 02-Oct-01 ? unplanned Etiwanda #3/320/gas 05-Oct-01 ? unplanned Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned Hyatt/Thermalito/900/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @ 250MW, planned Los Medanos/550/gas 19-Oct-O1 ? @ 250MW, planned Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? unplanned Palo Verde #2/1270/nuke 10-Oct-01 30 days maintenance Palo Verde #3/1270/nuke 29-Sep-01 03-Nov-01 refuel/maint. Redondo #7/480/gas 23-Oct-01 ? planned San Juan #4/534/coal 20-Oct-01 07-Nov-01 maintenance For unit owners refer to pdf version. *Indicates a change from previous EMR. ______________________________________________________________________ Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh) October 26, 2001 for October 29, 2001 Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh Low Change High Change Into Cinergy 31.00 2.50 32.50 -1.45 Western PJM 31.40 1.90 32.90 1.75 Into Entergy 25.55 0.30 29.00 1.00 Into TVA 30.00 0.00 34.50 2.75 ___________________________________________________________ In an active Friday trading session, peak power prices for Monday delivery strengthened across the Eastern Interconnect on cooler weather and increasing natural gas prices. "This week the power markets are following gas up. Some Hubs, like Entergy, were simply too cheap before, and those have made particularly strong gains," opined one market analyst. The mercury dropped all across the East Friday, and was expected to remain in the nippy range through Tuesday. Forecasts were calling for daytime highs only in the 40s and 50s, and overnight lows in the downright chilly 20s and 30s were expected. NYMEX Henry Hub gas contracts traded actively on Friday, a day ahead of expiring November contracts on Monday. November climbed 10.3 cents to close at 3.041$/mmBtu, and December also edged up 8 cents to end at 3.183$/mmBtu. Heavy load energy costs in the Mid-Atlantic rose in Friday trade, amid higher predicted loads for Monday and strong natural gas markets. Generation was healthier on Friday, with off-line Megawatts dropping. Nuke Indian Point #2 (965 MW) was off-line, entering a 20 day maintenance outage, and rumors indicated that Peach Bottom #2 (1,152 MW) might have returned to the grid a day ahead of schedule on Friday. Western PJM goods were trading from 31.4 to 32.9$/MWh. With a mean of 22.5$/MWh through 15:00 EDT, LMPs were very stable on Friday, fluctuating within 4$/MWh of the average all day after the usual early-morning spike. Overnight lows in the 30s were expected through Tuesday of the new week, kicking up heating demand. Nonetheless, the latest six-to-ten from the NWS called for above-normal temperatures from November 1 to 5. Like the rest of the Eastern spot market, peak power prices in the Midwest were natural gas dependent on Friday. No new outages were reported and gas costs were expected to outweigh weather-related demand for the new week. Electricity prices edged down slightly, with Into Cinergy goods changing hands between 31 and 32.5$/MWh, losing 1.45$/MWh on the high end, but tightening the range on the low. The Midwest was expected to be the coldest region over the weekend and into the new week, with temperatures not expected to reach any higher than 59 degrees through Tuesday, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. However, the latest six-to-ten predicted above-normal temperatures from November 1 to 5. In the Southeast on Friday trading was particularly active, with heavy load electricity prices gaining ground yet again, as a brief bout of winter weather was expected for the new week and strong natural gas costs pushed prices higher. Into Entergy pieces traded between 25.55 and 29$/MWh, with the day's low seen right out of the gate and the high reached late in the session. Some market players mentioned that cash gas (inside the month trades) were really moving the Entergy market on Friday. Into TVA was a less liquid market, with deals done between 30 and 34.5$/MWh. Temperatures were expected well below normal through Tuesday, with overnight lows solidly in the 30s. The weather trend was expected to reverse though, with above-normal temperatures predicted from November 1 to 5. ___________________________________________________________ California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh Path Peak Off-peak for 27-Oct-01 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00 NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00 SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00 OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh Mid-C PV SP-15 Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask BOM 34.25 34.75 34.25 34.75 34.75 35.00 November 35.25 35.75 32.75 33.00 34.00 34.50 December 42.50 43.00 36.25 36.75 38.00 38.50 Q1 '02 38.00 39.00 35.00 36.00 37.25 37.75 Q2 '02 28.50 29.50 37.50 38.75 37.00 37.50 Q3 '02 46.00 47.00 55.00 57.00 51.25 52.00 Q4 '02 40.00 41.00 37.25 38.25 40.50 41.25 Cal '03 42.00 42.25 42.00 43.00 43.50 45.00 Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable by the Energy Market Report. Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh) Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change for 25-Oct-01 62.27 61.90 32.56 53.01 12.45 BPA's Offer in $/MWh Hours Amount NW COB NOB BPA has no offer until further notice. NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu Close Change Nov 3.041 0.103 Dec 3.183 0.080 Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu Low High Sumas 2.57 2.62 So. Cal Border 2.78 2.83 San Juan 2.51 2.56 __________________________________________________________ Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201, Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com - Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2001. - 10.26.01.pdf - EMR Prices.xls - WPU.xls
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