FORWARD PRICE VIEWS FOR COMPETITIVE ENERGY MARKETS

Link to www.ze.com [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] =
Forward Price Views for Competitive Energy Markets [IMAGE] =09
[IMAGE] Dear Jubran, Recognizing the pronounced volatility and uncert=
ainty in the energy industry, ZE PowerGroup has developed processes and t=
ools to facilitate dynamic trading and risk management. One of the foremos=
t tools required for competitive operation is the availability of represen=
tative forward natural gas and power views for the various market hubs. =
Given that generation resource development, price behavior and industry re=
sponsiveness has been significantly outside of historic norms established =
during the extended period of regulation, and given recent world events ha=
ve resulted in greater uncertainty in the economy it is critical that an o=
rganization be able to probabilistically predict future prices, with some =
degree of accuracy. The market is always asking itself questions like: S=
hould I commit to a deal now or wait? For how much and for how long should=
I commit? What is the impact of this transaction on my portfolio? How do m=
arket events impact near, mid and long term pricing? How long will the pric=
e remain at the current level? A forward view is a prerequisite to manage =
and optimize on an energy portfolio in competitive markets. ZE PowerGroup =
provides short, mid and long-term Forward Price Views. The Forward Price V=
iews are developed using sophisticated, top-down market simulation models =
that are readily customizable and adaptable in size and scope to any regi=
on in North America. The Forward Price Models have been designed using the=
key drivers and fundamental parameters of the natural gas and electrical =
power industries in combination with econometric techniques and expert jud=
gment. The value of the model is in its ability to extract and quantify th=
e expert judgment. The difference between the ZE PowerGroup Forward Price =
Model and other models is that of a top-down market simulation versus bott=
om-up generation modeling. The bottom-up generation model does not always =
account for market behavior and assumes that generation is predominantly =
economically. These modes make little or no allowance for market power, in=
efficiencies, gaming or other operational or unique market factors. ZE Po=
werGroup developed their first price views in 1996. The Forward Price Mode=
l has performed well as a guiding tool; the views created from the models =
have consistently predicted the direction of price movement in the markets=
. It was one of the few models that predicted rapid and consistent price i=
ncreases after deregulation when the industry consensus was that prices wo=
uld retreat. Clients who have incorporated the price views into their stra=
tegic planning have reaped significant benefits and mitigated price risks;=
fairing better than their counterparts. The Forward Price Model can be c=
oupled with the Market Monitoring subscription, which adds value through t=
argeted intelligence required to optimize positioning in uncertain and vol=
atile markets. ZE PowerGroup strives to provide timely and required intell=
igence at reasonable cost. For more information on ZE PowerGroup's Forwar=
d Price Views or on subscribing to a monthly market monitoring service, pl=
ease visit our web page at www.ze.com , contact us by email at paul@ze.co=
m or by phone at 604-244-1469. [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] =09
[IMAGE] Link to www.ze.com [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE] [IMAGE=
] You received this newsletter because your email address is on our mail=
ing list. We hope you find our mailings useful. However, if you'd like you=
r name taken off the mailing list, you can do so by replying to this email=
with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line. =09